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fr0sty

2,995 karma · joined December 29, 2009

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fr0sty··on The Insourcing Boom
If you "just got out of college" then you are likely <26yo and are covered by your parents insurance.
fr0sty··on Not Wanting Kids Is Entirely Normal
As the father of an almost 2-year-old:

Baby spending is a gaseous thing. It expands to fill the size of your budget.

All a baby needs is onesies, diapers, food, some blankets and a place to sleep. A car-seat and a stroller for going out (plus some blankets, etc for keeping warm). Anything else is gravy.

The kid will be fine. Quit worrying.

You will have to ease back into outside social engagements but you will sort things out.

Young children sleep a lot.

fr0sty··on Why I’m not backing you on Kickstarter
Three words: Economies of Scale

A lot of stretch goals I have seen are things like upgraded components, extra colors, and the like which are wuite possible as your order sizes push your per-unit costs down. This is doubly so for software based offerings since marginal costs are zero for each additional pledge so you can take what would be pure profit to fund additional features.

fr0sty··on Umbrella Stand Hack with Rain Alert
While $90 is an improvement I think we need to get closer to $20 for things to get really interesting.
fr0sty··on Umbrella Stand Hack with Rain Alert
When will this sort of thing become affordable?

The wireless card is 50GBP+VAT and the board it plugs in to is 20. thats > $150 to control an LED wirelessly which is only a little bit insane.

I'd love to throw together little 'internet of things' projects here there and everywhere but the per-unit cost just doesn't allow it.

fr0sty··on Airlines Face Acute Shortage of Pilots
The big difference between cars and planes is that a near universal failsafe in a car is to slam on the brakes. Car stops. Simple and relatively foolproof. There is no such avenue available to a plane in flight.

If you still think it's possible take some time to learn of all the novel failure modes that have occured over the past few decades in commercial aviation. Pay special attention to the ones requiring crew to override onboard computers.

fr0sty··on The People's Bailout
So people list their bad debts on a website and compete for the most compelling sob story to get them written off.

I actually cannot imagine how this would lead to better outsomes than just buying and forgiving debt blindly. You would preference the best and boldest liars over people who can't bring themselves to debase themselves in front of the world in hopes of your patronage.

Buying blind at least solves the adverse selection problem.

fr0sty··on Obama Wins The Election. Here’s His Technology Agenda.
"The risk-weighted investment into Solyndra was probably on the order of the low tens of millions."

What do you mean by "risk-weighted investment"?

The loan to Solyndra was for $535 million dollars of which practically none was returned [1].

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solyndra#Shutdown_and_investiga...

fr0sty··on How I made $500k with machine learning and high frequency trading
1. Author graphed his daily returns which should give you a handle on his volatility. He also stated his max drawdown was $2k.

2. Author has stated elsewhere than he began with $10k in seed capital.

3. The "bullish" market you cite increased only about %70 in that timeframe while the author's returns were multiples of that number.

4. Author walked away from a _previously successful_ strategy that no longer produced profits. His montlhy returns went to nearly zero so he stopped.

Edited to fix numbers.

fr0sty··on How I made $500k with machine learning and high frequency trading
Nitpick: When exchanges have busted trades there is a "at or below $XX.XX" condition as well as the "between XX:XX and YY:YY" condition.

In the Flash Crash as well as the Knight Capital incident "up/down 30% from the Previous Close" was the price collar (anything outside that was busted and anything inside stood).

Of course there is no guarantee that the same criteria will be used the next time around so caveat emptor.

fr0sty··on How I made $500k with machine learning and high frequency trading
Ok, that wasn't clear to me.

You talked about programming hotkeys (and then automating the hotkeys) so I assumed this was running on your desktop.

fr0sty··on How I made $500k with machine learning and high frequency trading
Wouldn't the term "Statistical Arbitrage" be a more apt description of what you were doing?

If you are relying on a broker-supplied pricefeed over the internet you are far outside the real of what is traditionally understood as "High Frequency Trading".

fr0sty··on It's fine to get an MBA but don't be an MBA
Survivor bias would be my guess. To say that X% of "successful tech entrepeneurs" have MBAs means nothing unless you know the % of total tech entrepeneurs (successful or not) that have MBAs.
fr0sty··on Google Nexus 4: Nearly flawless
Umm...

"But the Nexus 4 falls just short of perfection due to one major omission: It’s not compatible with any LTE networks."

fr0sty··on 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S
"You just need some electricity."

If you wave your hand enough anything is trivial. The "some" you are talking about is 250A @ 400V (100kW) which is a trifle more than a typical gas station can readily supply (especially if you want to charge more than one at a time).

fr0sty··on Uber Reverts Back to Surge Pricing in New York After One Day
Fair enough. My point is we balk at a 200% increase in the price of gasoline but won't blink at a 100000% increase in the price of water.

Also consider that @ $1 per 16oz bottle you are paying $8/gal for essentially tapwater that was bottled and driven in from out of state. But try to sell a gallon of gas for $5 and you are some kind of monster...

fr0sty··on Uber Reverts Back to Surge Pricing in New York After One Day
> The gas stations without electricity aren't to get electricity any fast because the price of gas is higher.

If you can sell gas for $10/gal then it becomes worthwhile to get a generator and start pumping gas.

If you can't sell gas at a premium you won't bother.

You could say the same for anyone with a truck that has a bulk tank. If they could go house to house selling gasoline at a premium you can bet good money people would be trucking in thousands of gallons of fuel for generators. But that's price gouging so everyone goes without...

fr0sty··on Uber Reverts Back to Surge Pricing in New York After One Day
But water is not really a special case, though.

Tap water is nearly free and bottled water is >$1/gal. so the markup during a disaster is >100x.

fr0sty··on Uber Reverts Back to Surge Pricing in New York After One Day
New Jersey has an "Anti-gouging" law that makes it illegal for retailers to increase prices by more than 10%.
fr0sty··on Uber Reverts Back to Surge Pricing in New York After One Day
Previous discussion:

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4725789

fr0sty··on Bucket Brigade Hauls Diesel Fuel up 17 Stories to Keep NYC Data Center Online
The building is 35 stories tall. the 17th and 18th floors are right in the middle.

Besides that, I don't think the powers that be want people belching diesel exhaust just a few feet above street level.

fr0sty··on Bucket Brigade Hauls Diesel Fuel up 17 Stories to Keep NYC Data Center Online
Hydraulic elevators are only used in buildings with 2-5 (in rare cases up to 8) floors. These are certainly traction elevators but the controls and wiring are still likely located in the basement.
fr0sty··on 75 Broad Street; Turning Buildings Into Telecommunications Hubs (1999)
This is the building that is home to the "Bucket Brigade" that has been getting so much press lately.
fr0sty··on Bucket Brigade Hauls Diesel Fuel up 17 Stories to Keep NYC Data Center Online
Here is some information on the setup @ 75 Broad St:

"The 17th and 18th floors of 75 Broad have been reserved for generator farms that can accommodate as many as 40 machines. Big doors will be installed in the facade of both floors so the generators can be rigged into the building.

A 41,000-gallon fuel tank is being installed in the basement, with a separate generator and three redundant pumps to supply the generators on the 17th and 18th floors. Each tenant will own its own generator -- E-Spire already has one installed outside on the setback on the 17th floor -- but the building will sell them fuel."

http://www.nytimes.com/1999/10/10/realestate/commercial-prop...

fr0sty··on Trello has moved to AWS
Nit-pick: These generators burn diesel not, gas.

And to the poster below: 500kw generator is not unreasonable for a fully populated datacenter. That is power and cooling, remember.

fr0sty··on Nexus: The best of Google, now in three sizes
You are confusing latency with throughput.

If you are downloading 1MB of data the difference in delivery between the two speeds (42mbps vs. 72mbps) is 80ms (190ms vs 111ms) Hardly life-changing.

fr0sty··on How do you stop online students cheating?
> Doing so would at least validate how quickly students are able to gather and synthesize information to arrive at correct conclusions - a skill set that will serve them well even in today's rapid-access-to-information world.

That only works if you can prevent the student from simply hiring an expert to take their tests for them.

fr0sty··on Nexus: The best of Google, now in three sizes
And someone finally implements the killer-feature for the "Family Tablet": Multi-Account Support:

> But what makes Nexus 10 unique is that it's the first truly shareable tablet. With Android 4.2, you can add multiple users and switch between them instantly right from the lockscreen. We believe that everyone should have quick and easy access to their own stuff -- email, apps, bookmarks, and more. That way, everyone can have their own home screens, their own music, and even their own high scores.

fr0sty··on Is it better to turn up the volume in the software or on the speakers?
This may be true for the intermediate steps but but the last step is still a DAC changing integers to analog voltage. If you are attenuating the signal before that point you are still losing bit-depth (even if, by the magic of floating point numbers you are reducing the aliasing and other artifacts).
fr0sty··on Wall Street's thirst for water: a market for water will drive up food prices
You can't make any useful comparisons between "water" and "healthcare" outside of saying "people generally want as much as they can consume with minimal cost".

If you can point me to a faucet that I can use to fill a jug with a few gallons of "healthcare" then you can make more detailed comparison but not until then.

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