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It's going to be easy to substitute in their own LLM behind the API in the future. None of the branding or platform is controlled by OpenAI.

Any developing country that has cheap labor costs and no tariffs. The retail cost for panels is $205 per kW, inverter $115 per kW, then add another 30-40% for labor, cables and mounts.

Initial costs were estimated at 3.3bn euros, blew out to 13.2bn.

Biden's chips sanctions are also hurting them. They only just figured out how to make 7nm chips. They'll struggle to assemble the compute to keep up in AI. Now, if only we didn't insist on publishing all our trade secrets in the geopolitically naive pursuit of open source, which spits on the reality of the security competition we are currently engaged in, we'd be even more ahead.

90% capacity factor is possible but quite generous, France is below 70%. As nuclear penetration goes up it becomes impossible to sustain high capacity because demand itself is variable, so you either need to overbuild nuclear and run nuclear at low capacity factors, or you need to build storage.

I'm very shocked to see that China's utility scale solar project is $600 per kwp. I almost want to say something must be wrong with that number. It's higher than retail rooftop PV costs which is $450 per kwp.

Two reasons - the shown capabilities are way beyond what dalle is capable of, and they've been clear that this "omni" model by the "omni team" is natively multimodal

As a moral realist and liberal humanist, I agree, but the post highlights something important. Evil acts are often motivated by sincere moral systems. These people are mostly not sociopaths acting independent of a moral system. The feelings of moral disgust you feel towards their views are probably no different neurobiologically to the feelings of moral disgust they felt. This is important for us to recognize. Feelings of moral disgust should not be automatically given credence or respect just because they exist. We should also be careful and introspective of strongly held moral feelings that arise in ourselves.

US golf courses take up 2x the area of currently deployed solar panels and California already has over 20GW of deployed capacity. When you combine unoccupied deserts, unused rooftop area, and agrivolataics, land use should be a non issue.

You can look at a world heat map plot of solar irradiance. That's one factor.

The other factor is seasonal variability, which is a harder problem to solve than low irradiance. Low irradiance can be solved by installing more panels, which will automatically be solved with future price declines.

Anduril says they have a focus on industrial capacity and cost effectiveness

California and China are doing it already. It's not theoretical. It's here, today, thanks to massive cost reductions.

No need.to install, go to www.morphic.sh

How confident are you in your 1% number? Are you sure it's not 20% or 50%?

Impact would depend on cost per kWh of the fusion energy

The shape of the curve is a bit of a red herring, unless additional context is considered. Decay could mean we have succeeded in decarbonizing the entire power sector, which is a signal of success. Or decay could mean California has finally built all the solar it needs but no other states are following in California's footsteps, which is a signal of failure. Both are instances of decay that signify very different situations.

You are correct though that a naive prediction of constant doublings is definitely wrong. China is showing signs of slowing over the last month due to transmission and storage bottlenecks in a few locations. BNEF has an article about this.

Prisons is an apt analogy. If you think otherwise you probably went to a uniquely good school or were high charisma and avoided bullying. But that's not everyone's experience.

Human children socialized just fine in the 100k years that we didn't have schools. The purpose of schools is to bring economies of scale to education. That's great, but if we can figure out a way to deliver education at scale without schools and all the negative side effects of schools, that'd be even better.

This could be confirmation bias.

Here's an alternative explanation that fits the same facts. Sam tweeted "her", not due to the voice, but due the existence of a conversational system that resembled the system in the movie. This primed people to hear Scarlett Johansson's voice in a generically cheerful female voice actor who was contracted over half a year ago. Scarlett's lawyers encourage her to write a public letter, helping Scarlett with the wording, in order to steer the public narrative, in order to place pressure on OpenAI to settle with her financially out of court.

Iowa has more renewables than CA but has cheaper electricity prices than the national average. There are a few examples like this that prove that the inference you're attempting to make is symptomatic of stupidity.

Not trivial. Factors: Local labor costs, PV import tariffs, net metering arrangement, roof space and tilt angle, electricity prices, local solar irradiance levels, solar seasonality, and large cost difference between grid tie versus hybrid battery systems.

If you live in a reasonably sunny country, the shorthand you can use is 4.5*(system size in KW), which equals the daily number of kWh your system will produce. Say that number is 30kWh. Then multiply 30 by your per kWh electricity costs. Say $0.2*30. That's your daily savings estimate, $6. Then you can figure out how many years to ROI by comparing it to the system cost. This approach will be more or less accurate if you have a battery or a nice net metering arrangement. It will be less accurate without either of these things.

  "What was new was that the stories had been taken from legitimate news outlets and modified using large language models, most likely one built by Openai"

Huh? What is the evidence for this claim? I assumed they used an open weights model to avoid a distracting adversarial cat and mouse game against OpenAI.

"you swap the vehicle" -- that's a large cost associated with the battery getting old earlier than it otherwise would have. Have you factored this into your math?

If you have a $40k EV expiring two years ahead of schedule, the added depreciation cost should be in the thousands. Remember that battery lifespan isn't measured only in years, it's primarily measured in cycles.

Dedicated LPO home batteries can be gotten for only $110 USD per kWh if you live in a place with no tarrifs or taxes on it. This makes a lot more sense to me.

The only way I can see it making sense to use EVs for this, is if the battery getting old is rarely the main reason for throwing away old EVs. If that is true, then sure, use EVs as a home battery, since you're not getting a massive depreciation cost from doing so. But is it true?

Crazy expensive solar panels? Depending on where you live they can be gotten for less than $120 USD for a half kW panel, retail cost.

It gets expensive if you insist on a hybrid inverter and battery. But even then, you can get full ROI in less than five years in some locations. ROI is highly dependent on local labor costs, tariffs, grid electricity costs, local solar irradiance, and net metering arrangements.

1 GWh is 1 million kWh, multiplied by $0.1 that should give $100k in energy costs?

Weather is variance around climate. Heatwaves are caused by both (high variance spikes to the upside around an increasing mean trend)

It's meaningfully affecting people today near the equator. Look at the April 2024 heatwave in South Asia. These will continue to get worse and more frequent. Millions of these people can't afford air conditioning.

4o uses less compute and performs better.

A spanner in the works is Biden's tariffs that will hit grid storage imports from China, which is currently the large majority of deployed storage. These particular tariffs will start in 2026.

Iowa has more renewables as a proportion than CA yet has lower electricity prices than the national average. There are a few examples like this. Raw retail prices are not an accurate reflection of anything. You actually have to do your homework properly.

Any such argument needs to accurately account for the relative ease of recycling lithium ion batteries, and the existence of batteries with significantly longer lifespans like iron air, compressed air (eg Hydroster) and pumped hydro

  > There are many other variables like power sources (nuclear power for example)

The problem is that there aren't. You might be a wind NIMBY and nuclear YIMBY, but guess what, there's millions of nuclear NIMBYs ready to oppose whatever vision you personally hold.

The end result is permanent gridlock all in the name of preserving the subjective aesthetic preferences of a tiny handful of people. You can't run a society like this, you just can't.

At some point the urgent global concerns need to override sufficiently frivolous local concerns.