320 karma · joined March 11, 2009
So far, we've only seen the third and most open version of the platform...
I would wager Apple didn't know what it was getting itself into. Most large companies who want to enter the mobile space don't. They failed to plan for the degradation of AT&T's network as they failed to plan for the level of anti-competitiveness exhibited by most carriers.
Getting angry, by the way, will do nothing...reducing Apple's revenue, on the other-hand...
Please please keep in mind that every one of Apple's developers and customers is entering their walled garden by choice. If their control really bothers you...go get an Android device.
Perhaps the solution to any company that exerts dictatorial control over it's own property is to throw a legion of Apple nerds at it?
(This isn't to say that these arguments are wrong...they're just several years late to the party)
They are very different fields...and going through school there was very little to be learned about the art of Software Engineering. Most people, I suspect, have to learn it on the job.
In short:
Win Mo: Stable, no big wins or losses
Brew: uh, yea no comment (I think the developers conference was canceled)
Java ME/BB: Blackberry needs to innovate towards the pre/android or it's going to stagnate and die. Java ME needs to die. Haven't had time to look at Java FX yet.
Pre, I think, will go like Android did(except it looks a lot better) there's HUGE hacker appeal but it will probably take 2 years or so to take off.
Here's the longer version:
I've been a mobile software developer for 6 years. I've written software for BREW, JavaME, Android, to name a few. I've also published a book about Android (msg me if you want to know the title) so I have a little experience on the subject.
What we're seeing, essentially, is new money vrs old money. In the old way, one's relationship with the carrier was valued above all things. They were the gatekeepers of their respective markets. What they said went, and that was final. But it wasn't always this way.
In the beginning of the BREW and j2me world, it was a free-for-all. Anyone could get rich with a ring tone or wallpaper app. Over the years, however, the big players crowded out the amatures and what's left is a pretty stable system where only the well connected can make any serious money. Deck placement and promotion matter above all else and it's through these two things that the carriers control their app stores.
Fastforward to today, and what you'll see is what was happening in the early days of the GetItNow/MediaMall. A few amatures are getting rich and the big guys have to slug it out with every nerd in his or her basement...The lesson, however, is that it won't always be this way. So make you're money, corner your market, and build your start up right now. The market is, in my humble opinion, stabilizing away from the basement programmer and back to the big guys.... The days of fart apps at #1 are passing, but that doesn't mean you can't make money on it in the mean time.
Further, the only reason they were able to offer the discounted price when shifting from 2g to 3g was the additional 10$ a month they made off the new data plan. For the 3gs, they'll actually lose money on upgrading customers because their bandwidth costs go up.
Anyone who's read a Charles Stross novel in the past 2 years could see this one coming from a km away.