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hazard

355 karma · joined May 31, 2015

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hazard··on Show HN: I discovered a trading algorithm that returns ~24.85% annually
There's kind of a lot of missing pieces here:

* This is a simple strategy, which is fine, but also means you are not the only person who has noticed this. Why do you think this makes money? Is there some risk you are being compensated for, or is there some forced trading you're picking up the other side of, or something else?

* Which of the common equity factors (https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data...) is your strategy exposed to, and by how much?

* What are the basic return statistics of the strategy, like Sharpe and drawdown?

* How sensitive is the strategy to parameter variations? What if you sell the second best ETF instead of the best? What if you sell on day n+2 instead of n+1? What if you buy the worst ETF?

And about a dozen other things that you should look into before you actually try trading.

hazard··on Ask HN: Getting back to C++ and looking for ideas
If you've been using Python for DL, you can try using PyTorch's C++ bindings instead. They're remarkably similar to Python, and depending on what you're doing you may pick up a fair bit of speed. For example if you're doing some kind of RL-like simulation in Python, doing that in C++ will be much faster.
hazard··on Ask HN: Do you create music? let's hear it
Not me, but my wife (Taiko Drumming):

https://www.youtube.com/user/HoEtsu

hazard··on Ask HN: When coding, how to do remember what you were doing the previous day?
I literally write "// TODO: YOU ARE HERE - (Summary of next tiny task)"

I separately keep a TODO file with the list of next major task items, and I break them down into subtasks if necessary.

This allowed me to do a side project in 15-minute chunks on my train ride to and from work for a year

hazard··on I Want to Fix Goodreads
It's not that hard. See for instance https://www.coursera.org/lecture/machine-learning/collaborat... on how to get started
hazard··on Twitter puts warning on Trump tweet for “glorifying violence”
My conclusion is that HN's default search results are not very good for checking if something has already been submitted. Searching for "twitter" doesn't show any of these submissions, presumably because the default search shows only "popular" submissions.

HN should really implement something like stack exchange where it auto-searches for potential dupes

hazard··on Ask HN: What's your quarantine side project?
I'm always puzzled by these "how do you deal with lawsuits" comments. Two questions:

1. Have you seen any examples of mask manufacturers/distributors being sued, either successfully or unsuccessfully?

2. How do you protect against the risk of litigation in everything else you do? For example, being sued by anyone who pays you money (customers or employers)? Their lawsuit may not be successful, but you would still have to defend against it.

hazard··on I Spent $6M on Google Ads Last Year
The "creative" is, well, the creative part of an ad. It's the text, images, design, etc. It's the "sexy" part of marketing, compared with all the quantitative/analytic work like segmentation, user research, pricing, etc.

I somewhat disagree with the author that the creative is everything - unless you already have all the other aspects locked on and creative is the only place for you to improve

hazard··on Ask HN: Partial Bootstrap for a SaaS Startup
Be careful about the legal side. Whether it's shares or "future profit sharing", you may be offering unregistered securities. The Howey Test (https://consumer.findlaw.com/securities-law/what-is-the-howe...) is what you would typically look at to decided if what you're offering is a security or not.

In short, if you go this route, you should look at not just the business trade-offs but also the legal implications. You can probably get a brief opinion from an attorney for somewhere between $0-$500

hazard··on Ask HN: Have you ever bought a company to run yourself?
You can just google 'buy a saas business' and there's at least a half-dozen places that come up. Flippa, FE international, Empire Flippers, etc
hazard··on Ask HN: Just found out that I’m gonna be a dad
I was in a similar 'unpredictable income' situation when I had my kid. Since you're on HN, I'm assuming that your income comes from some kind of knowledge work, and you have to be mentally sharp to be productive.

The best investment I ever made was to get a night nanny. This is someone who comes to your home at night and changes diapers, feeds the baby (or brings them to the mom to nurse without waking you up) and may also do basic domestic stuff like laundry and dishes while your partner adjusts to their new routine as a parent.

The cost is going to vary dramatically depending on where you live and whether your kid has any kind of special needs (e.g., if they're a premie you might want a night nanny who is also a registered nurse).

They will basically double your productivity during your waking hours since you will not be suffering (as much) from sleep deprivation.

hazard··on Anki: Memorization with Spaced Learning
I've had huge success using Anki in taking required professional exams. I'm in finance, so at various times I've had to take the JSDA, the Series 56, and Series 65.

I originally signed up for a Kaplan class for the 65, thinking it was going to be a cram class. In reality, it turned out to be a review class. Halfway through the first day on Monday, I told the teacher I hadn't started reviewing the material yet for the test on Friday. He said I was essentially a lost cause, and I should sign up to take the test again in a month.

I immediately left the classroom and spent the rest of the day entering every question from the practice exams into Anki. I spent 8-10 hours the next 3 days doing nothing but running Anki questions. On Friday, I crushed the exam.

Other useful things I've learned with Anki include the Number Major System and the answers to a bunch of those useless "brainteaser" interview questions.

hazard··on Finding a Therapist
I think that a big part of this is that the "willing to admit it" part has become slightly more de-stigmatized, particularly after the recent suicides of some high-profile celebrities.

There's a vicious cycle at work here: People don't want to talk about going to a therapist since they are worried about being seen as "broken", so people who could benefit from therapy don't seek it out because they don't know anyone else who does, so it becomes more unusual, which creates more of a stigma against it

Edit: I also think that perceptions are changing around, what, specifically, is broken. Your post mentions "broken people", but if a person had cancer, or a fractured bone, or an infection, we wouldn't say that the person is broken. Similarly, I think we need to realize that people with mental health issues have issues with brain chemistry, rather than being broken people.

hazard··on Ask HN: What are the best Sci-Fi books you've ever read?
Suarez's books are so underrated. The buddhism / sci-fi thing is great
hazard··on Ask HN: What is so great about Bloomberg Terminal?
It brings together a vast variety of otherwise extremely hard to find information. The keyboard is specialized because it literally reduces the number of keystrokes required to quickly access financial information. This is a business where seconds matter - even when you have humans talking to other humans to negotiate trades.

Literally almost every piece of useful financial information is available via bloomberg. And I don't mean relatively basic info like "What's the current yield the Apple 3.85% of 2043?" or "What's the current CDS spread for Citibank?" that you can easily google for but also stuff like "Which oil tankers are in for repair right now, and what are their capacities?" and similar info on power plants, international agriculture, equities, interest rates, etc.

Experienced bloomberg users have their most-used keystrokes in their muscle memory. Less experienced users can hit F1 twice and immediately be connected to a live bloomberg rep who will research your question for you (although it may take 20 minutes for them to figure it out).

Bloomberg Chat is also extremely important, as others have mentioned.

hazard··on Show HN: The 1979 Classic Game Lemonade Stand as a Facebook Bot
Those of you who are a bit more...senior...may remember playing the classic Lemonade Stand "business simulator" game on the Apple II (https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Lemonade_Stand) . For me personally, it holds a special nostalgia as one of the first computer games I ever played.

Well, we dug up the source code and ported Lemonade Stand to Facebook Messenger. While we made some small changes to the UI for it to work on messenger, we kept all the original game settings and equations. If you've played Lemonade Stand before, you can now relive the days of your youth! If you've never played Lemonade Stand, you're in for a retro treat.

Try the game here (http://m.me/retrolemonade) and let me know what you think!

hazard··on Ask HN: What is the skillset for programmers at AI startups?
why not keras for your 'one true neural network framework'?
hazard··on Ask HN: What's a good real-time stock trading platform?
It depends on what you want. As others have pointed out, IB is good for a near-pro trading experience. If you don't need margin access, shorting, options, etc you might want to check out Robinhood (disclaimer: I've never used it although it looks nice).

Really though, why do you care about real-time trading anyways? Not being sarcastic; this is an actual question.

hazard··on Ask HN: How do you prepare for interviews?
So no one feels that stuff like "Cracking the Coding Interview" is really that helpful?
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