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holonomicallyon Ask HN: Do you ever give money to those guys with signs at stoplights?

Yes. Sometimes I also give them bread or other food if I'm driving back from the grocery store. It fundamentally doesn't solve any problem but it at least shows them that someone is willing to give them something and help them out and that might be enough for them to start believing in themselves as well.

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

Where did I say it was?

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

I really like how you hedge that mRNA vaccines aren't "sterilizing to any significant extent" as if that invalidates what I said because obviously there is no such thing as a sterilizing vaccine. [1] All vaccines simply generate an immune response and don't confer magical powers on the immune system like preventing infections. Anyone with basic understanding of biology can derive that conclusion from first principles about viruses and immune systems.

Here are the actual stats in the US on how many people have died after vaccination

> Since more than 338 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the USA, this data reflects a vaccination-death ratio of 0.0018%. [2]

You can compare that to all other risk factor for death if you want but it turns out that getting the vaccine is basically the single most effective way of preventing death from a novel and highly contagious airborne respiratory virus.

But you're entitled to your opinions. To each their own I guess.

1: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/09/steriliz...

2: https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/covid-19-vaccine-relat...

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

I've repeatedly said in this thread that the vaccine preps the immune system so that the body is able to fight off the real virus because it has already been prepped ahead of time. No vaccine can ever prevent infection because that's not how immune systems work. Being vaccinated does not prevent inhaling live viral particles. I'm curious to know why you think being infected even after vaccination is such a big deal?

holonomicallyon Ask HN: What do you want for Christmas/the holidays?

This might be your lucky day. Whereabouts do you live? I have a Raspberry Pi 400 computer kit just sitting around. I might be able to ship it to you. Get in touch at sleepy.book1396@fastmail.com (that's a masked email address from fastmail, I promise it's not a scam). I'm in California so if it's not too expensive to ship it then I'll be able to cover the shipping cost.

holonomicallyon More Americans say they’re not planning to have a child, U.S. birthrate declines

They do, I have friends that are hosts for people/immigrants from Afghanistan.

I was just trying to gauge your commitment and sincerity to what you were saying.

holonomicallyon More Americans say they’re not planning to have a child, U.S. birthrate declines

A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step.

holonomicallyon Ask HN: What do you want for Christmas/the holidays?

Nuclear fusion and a social movement away from consumer pop culture.

holonomicallyon Is it possible to create a site where users can anonymous post thoughts/essay?

The issue is lack of identities. If you make it completely anonymous then it will turn into a troll farm. If you require full identities then it'll turn into Facebook (or something like it). Blockchains add private keys and economic incentives for maintaining identities associated with those keys but there has yet to be any actual social platform that operates in a decentralized way because most of the crypto thought leaders just hang out on Twitter and Reddit.

This is a hard problem and adding another publishing platform into the mix is unlikely to lead to any worthwhile outcomes because every variation of this has basically already been tried and they have all failed. My guess is that digital platforms are just not a good medium for generating worthwhile content. The incentives and feedback loops are not conducive for creating anything worthwhile and lasting. The more people that are added into the mix the more diffuse everything becomes until eventually the only things gaining traction are the lowest common denominators of human cognition like shower thoughts, cute animal pictures, celebrity gossip, conspiracy theories, and general pop culture.

One thing HN gets right is its focus on technology. Any other platform will have to pick some kind of similar niche and pursue it with laser focus to have any chance of producing anything worthwhile.

holonomicallyon Ask HN: How often do you use “I think”?

I think I prefer "In my opinion...".

holonomicallyon More Americans say they’re not planning to have a child, U.S. birthrate declines

Do you suppose we could pool enough money to start a community college? Or do you suppose it would be better to utilize existing public school infrastructure and make it better at addressing the educational needs of potential immigrants?

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

I never said I rushed to get the vaccine. I had been infected twice in the first few waves so I knew I was immune. I just got the vaccine because I knew it was safe and it would give me a boost against the oncoming future waves of infection since it was also clear that there would not be enough vaccine uptake for herd immunity and I wanted to hedge my bets and make sure I was immune to whatever variant the vaccine was designed for.

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

What point are you actually making? I didn't say there would be no comparative studies but that I had been unable to find any using my amateur research skills. If you have any data and references then present them and we can discuss whether they're valid or not.

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

The CNN article is about rushing approval before there was data available to show that it was safe for large scale deployment. Following the development of the vaccine convinced me that the folks working on Project Warpspeed [1] went above and beyond in making sure everyone was following strict protocols in gathering data to verify safety and efficacy. The example given in the article is about vaccines with attenuated viruses and mRNA vaccines are not attenuated viruses which removes a whole bunch of safety issues, hence why these vaccines are the safest form of anti-viral immune therapy that has been developed by modern science.

1: https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-319

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

Yes, thank you very much. It's all very clear now. I was definitely using the phrase incorrectly but, to be fair, the odds were stacked against me as a non-native speaker.

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

Yes, explain what is wrong with my statement. Where exactly is the error? Write it out and bracket the parts that are incorrect.

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

Quoting myself so it's clear

> ...so you are underestimating the odds of contracting the virus and surviving, i.e. the odds are stacked against them and they don't realize it.

Explain how I'm using it incorrectly.

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

Given that there is a highly virulent novel virus, the odds are stacked against the anti-vaxxers because if you believe that you can somehow avoid getting infected then you are not calculating probabilities properly and so you are underestimating the odds of contracting the virus and surviving, i.e. the odds are stacked against them and they don't realize it.

Now, how exactly am I using the phrase incorrectly?

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/odds+are+stacked+agains...

The odds are stacked against them as in they are less likely to survive if they contract the virus without being vaccinated. Outward appearance of health are unrelated to cytokine storms because cytokine storms are a confluence of genetic factors and viral DNA and unrelated to any outward appearances of health. In any case, the links I've presented are evidence enough for me to be convinced that vaccination is the right answer and if you're not convinced then that's fine. We can agree to disagree about the risk factors.

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

Which specific drugs and therapies are you talking about? I followed the development of the vaccine and it was clear from day 1 that this was the safest vaccine that scientists had ever managed to develop. It's really a marvel of biological engineering. The same techniques are now being utilized to develop therapies for cancer and HIV. [1]

1: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28101688/

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

The point is that even for healthy individuals the odds are stacked against them if they catch the actual virus instead of getting the vaccine and prepping their immune system ahead of time. [1]

1: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/04/fit-and-health...

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

I guess that makes sense but the side-effects seem overblown in my opinion. Even with being susceptible to the side-effects it is very unlikely that catching the virus unwittingly is going to be better. I haven't found any studies on comparative outcomes with respect to the virus vs the vaccine when it comes to side-effects but whatever I could find so far indicates that for those that are susceptible to the side-effects of the vaccine the virus is much worse because it attacks all tissues indiscriminately. [1]

1: https://epi.ufl.edu/articles/covid-19-blood-vessel-damage.ht...

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

Seems very irrational but I agree it explains the logic of the people who are hopeful they are somehow immune to getting sick from an endemic virus.

holonomicallyon More Americans say they’re not planning to have a child, U.S. birthrate declines

I really don't get how you inferred all that from what I said. A social safety net and better education programs are better for everyone, including the people in whatever country happens to be implementing those programs and policies.

The issue with media bias is another matter entirely and is unrelated to what I was saying but I recommend you stop viewing everything with a conspiratorial lens. It is not helpful for having a productive discussion.

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

Being otherwise healthy is no guarantee that you are not genetically susceptible to cytokine storm reaction to the virus. The vaccine preps the immune system to avoid over-reacting, whether you are otherwise healthy or not does not really make a difference because no one can control their genetics and how it will interact with novel viruses. [1]

1: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra2026131

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

The virus is endemic so we're already in the certain scenario. That's why I don't understand the logic of people that refuse vaccination. You can either take 40 pills for 5 days or you can get vaccinated and avoid the hassle entirely. Deferring the decision just guarantees you will take the 40 pills, there is no way to avoid contracting the virus anymore.

holonomicallyon More Americans say they’re not planning to have a child, U.S. birthrate declines

What exactly in what I said is not sensible?

holonomicallyon How will the covid pills change the pandemic?

> A full course, which needs to start within five days of the appearance of symptoms, consists of forty pills—four capsules taken twice a day, for five days.

I don't understand the logic involved here. Why would anyone be willing to take 40 pills for 5 days straight but unwilling to get a vaccine shot?

holonomicallyon Formalizing Dawn in Coq

Really nice tutorial on Coq's theorem proving facilities. It even covers Ltac which is rare for these kinds of tutorials.

holonomicallyon More Americans say they’re not planning to have a child, U.S. birthrate declines

Then it's better to address those problems directly instead of scare monger about declining birth rates because the world has plenty of people and will continue to have more for the foreseeable future.