Overall, if anything, this just serves to illustrate all the complexities involved in trying to model how much a startup's equity offer is actually "worth" in the long-run and that trying to do calculations to model it against an offer at a big company is totally the wrong way to go about it.
It just validates what Mark Suster says here: http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2009/11/04/is-it-time-for...
don't join a startup because you could potentially make millions of $. Join if you want to learn; any money you make would be if you got really lucky and is a nice side bonus.