jcutrell

Yes but!

There are still many other things in certificated aircraft that are changing regularly based on ADs. This means “we found something in this decades old design that shows up when the fleet is in its 30s.”

Aircraft have VERY long lifetimes in comparison to most things. I own a 1962 Cessna - it is on its second engine, the first having been overhauled once. Some Cessnas from the 70s are still running on their originally installed engine.

Defects and issues are still addressed ongoing, and maintaining the certification for things like modifications for improved power generation still means significant work. It’s definitely not a one-and-done thing - part of the value of certification is in the continuous future improvement that comes from NTSB findings or inspection reports sent to the FAA.

It’s like an engine fault light spread across the whole fleet. The certification keeps the light working.

A better picture is an AI without guardrails that would be generated by ethical goals.

An AI without goals is functionally equal to an AI with nefarious or unethical goals - boundless action trained on human language / behavior will likely skew bad.

My humble prediction:

The catastrophe will come primarily in the form of inequity.

There will be some who understand and take advantage, and naturally some of those will leverage that power over others.

The best version: we help knowledge workers understand how to use AI to make them more productive and useful.

The likely picture: we save on margin costs, then the next wave of knowledge workers have AI-collaboration as a core / native competency.

The left behind will be overshadowed by the success of the next wave, and we’ll call it a success as a society.

I’ve expressed a similar thought with reference to impostor syndrome - velocity vs acceleration.

Early in your career you learn at a rapid pace. You are accelerating. You can feel acceleration.

But naturally as you continue, the amount of knowledge you have and can wield on a given day is substantial, yet for many it doesn’t change very quickly. You may be accelerating, but it’s slight relative to your velocity.

It would take a deceleration to appreciate the knowledge you have gained.

This is somewhat of an antagonist perspective to the OP, but I find it helpful, as the learning curves of a given individual describe a logarithmic function most usually, which I believe is the major underlying cause of impostor syndrome.

I’ve been creating a semantic search using embeddings tonight against my own podcast transcripts. I’d be happy to have my own content surfacing mechanism like this!

The very short answer is certification and what goes into the overall environment of certified aircraft.

This reads quite similar to the complaints from engineers that wrote code GitHub Copilot trained on.

The reality for this argument is that the average person does not understand nor care to understand whether an LLM is actually violating their privacy. In part because no one would be able to get ChatGPT to dox them or read out their SSN, which is what most people equate to a breach of privacy in the first place.

Well the `man` command already exists

For someone with a high level understanding of neural networks - isn’t this essentially describing what the weighted connections accomplish for a tuned network?

If I can offer some unsolicited feedback:

  - This space is very crowded - to consider this app, I need to know a differentiator much sooner. Is it the streak? Is it the zero-knowledge? What makes this different from the 20 other options? It seems like the value prop here is "this is a simple journal that tracks whether you wrote today or not, and that is zero knowledge." If there's more, it's missing from the marketing here.
  - There's some confusion in the branding. You're using the word "guru", as well as the word "jumble" as a verb. Pick a tagline and a CTA, and stick to those.
  - I like the point you are trying to make about the value of writing itself... but how does your app take advantage of that value prop? Can I capture those insights in a unique way? Otherwise, I can take your value prop and accomplish it in the writing app I already have an account and history with.

I think you're on the way to something good here, but it's a little too confusing to get me to convert.

Haha - yes, this is really just a language problem.

Visibility for pilots is a precise measurement, not a classification. "Can I see" is a different question than "how many miles can I see", and even still "how many feet can I see down this runway."

These measurements dictate different flight rules, for example which approach I can take into a given airport.

Take this plate for example: https://flightaware.com/resources/airport/CHA/IAP/VOR+RWY+33... - There are two approaches you can take, categorized in the bottom, that use this plate. One is circling, the other is straight in. Your aircraft category (approach speed ranges) dictates the visibility requirements; in this case, a small Cessna needs a statute mile of visibility to execute either of these approaches.

However, a larger airplane - an airliner, for example, needs different visibility for the circling versus the straight in. How different? In this case, half a mile for category C (1 3/4 vs 2 1/4).

What if visibility is less than a mile?

Then you need to do something like this approach instead: https://flightaware.com/resources/airport/CHA/IAP/ILS+OR+LOC...

Yes, but generally this would be used the opposite direction. If cloud bases are unavailable, or if weather is changing rapidly, you could use say barometric pressure + dew point to determine "is this about to go south towards low clouds and low vis?"

(Also, cloud bases are part of the METAR info in the first place, so it's a "neither" situation)

Also a note of caution... You could easily fall prey to confirmation bias on this one. Their interest in shrooms or psychedelics isn't necessarily a straight line to fentanyl. Plenty of people have one without the other.

I have a lot of interest in psychedelics (haven't tried it myself). How would you know if my interest is "for the wrong reasons"? And, what level of judgment clarity is required to know if the reasons are wrong, right, or neither?

On the one hand, you're absolutely correct.

On the other hand, there is some overlap in classification here: experience-altering substances.

OP's intuition is, "this person's entire mental interest pool is consumed by some form of escapism."

There's some fallacy in this equating, but the heuristic isn't way off.

I appreciate you sharing your experience, but keep in mind two things:

1. It's unclear what your family member was going through. Your own experience is much more salient to you, but battles are more and more invisible to external viewers, so it makes sense that you would characterize your experience as more difficult. It can be true that you had a horrible experience, and so did this person. There's a reason the "walk to school uphill both ways" meme exists.

2. Your sample size here is very small. Even if it is true that your experience was worse (we can't know for sure), your actions in that circumstance shouldn't be generalized to people-in-general, and the same applies for your family member.

> It makes me think some choices are not our own - and if it is predestined in some way at birth, well then yes, more compassion is necessary.

I'd encourage you to challenge whether predestination / loss of control is the qualifier for compassion. How can we know, for certain, why people make the choices they do? If you were predestined or not, we don't currently have a way to know.

Would people deserve compassion if everything they go through is a direct and pure result of their choices and nothing else?

Do we have a clear picture for where we want this to go in the future? Though not exactly the same, does this start to walk the path towards a "soma" equivalent?

Things I use as a pilot of a single engine piston:

- Temp dew point spread - Barometric pressure - TAF / forecast - Wind shear - Freezing level - Cloud tops - Cloud level AGL - visibility measured in actual distance

All of these things can’t be measured easily by a human. Visibility is probably the easiest, but can you tell me what the dew point is easily?

If I use it, imagine the critical importance for airliners.

Today I asked Siri what the temperature was this morning. It told me it doesn’t have access to past weather information.

Siri has been available for 12 years… I cannot understand why it hasn’t leaped forward more than it has. Embarrassingly low level of progress IMO, though for some things it still remains best in class.

Any good process should care about both the vector and the magnitude.

The saddest state of affairs, and most common, is when highly capable people have a high magnitude with an incorrect (or inconsistent) vector, leading them nowhere.

But the extra dozen come from the lower calorie expenditure from not walking as much. /s

It’s sleep or rust-free decks, take your pick I guess.

I suspect it’s a mix of mismanagement and stretched resources, not strictly one or the other.

You know, this actually seems like an interesting opportunity to use this locally as a superpowered CMS for my statically generated site. I’d have to figure out how to create a linkage that can be translated to my Next-based resource URLs, but at least this would give me more to work with than just my text editor to manage my markdown stuff.

Studies have been conducted about this, and many times have shown at best very mild correlations with confounding not controlled for (one French study is an example of this).

I‘m the host of Developer Tea. It’s not for everyone (not a technical podcast), but you may enjoy it!

I also recommend Hidden Brain, SyntaxFM if you are into JS especially, and Soft Skills Daily.

One cow is fine, it's when you try to put millions of cows out there and grow them as fast as possible that you get problems.

There is nothing wrong with it per se, and no, you don’t have to know Linux commands to get by.

Sure, a Linux one liner might be “easier” to someone who knows Linux… but that doesn’t mean it’s “wrong.”

Looks like your links may be broken at the moment.

I have learned this with my wife…

Gifts don’t mean just one thing.

There is a variety of things you can optimize for.

For my wife, me getting her something she wants but wouldn’t get herself is the right gift. That, or something she wouldn’t have been able to find for herself.

Surprises are low on her list. Extravagant gifts are low. She would be the kind of person not to buy the coffee for, because she knows what she likes and if you bought her the wrong thing, the thought would count but now what do you do with this bad bag of coffee?

I’m the opposite. I care much more about the fact that you thought about me long enough to do something specific and special to me.

Finally a link in this thread that will fuel my confirmation bias.

Not nearly as hacker-y as this, but I'll plug Reflect here. Probably my favorite tool for this so far. Best continually-improving UX, but there's a subscription cost. I happily pay it.