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jdross

1,371 karma · joined August 17, 2009

@justindross

I take the side of people who build.

Dialectic over debate (h/t Kevin Simler), but I'm happy to learn through either

Founder of WithCoverage

Previously I co-founded Opendoor, Royal, and Fresh Prints. I also helped get Addepar, Butter Payments and Villa Homes off the ground

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jdross··on Layoffs at Block
As you know, this is a subjective take. (I enjoy my experience there more now, for example, with less social politics in my feed.)

And their head of product claimed that X only has around 30 FT employees apparently working on it, so it's much more than 80% since then.

https://www.ndtv.com/feature/x-head-of-product-claims-compan...

jdross··on Anthropic drops flagship safety pledge
Would nuclear energy research be a good analogy then? Seems like a path we should have kept running down, but stopped bc of the weapons. So we got the weapons but not the humanity saving parts (infinite clean energy)
jdross··on Banned in California
I’m married to a Brit and she is constantly in awe of how much better our healthcare is here in the US. And she paid for private insurance there too.

Quality of facilities, low wait times, quality of staff interactions, organization, etc.

She even freaks out about how we have free parking at our doctors and hospitals here!

We’re on corporate insurance.

jdross··on AIs can't stop recommending nuclear strikes in war game simulations
I think the consensus is the biggest danger of a nuclear weapon being used is that it will result in way more nuclear weapons being used.

The specific damage of a single nuclear weapon is far outweighed by thousands of them hitting population centers in an escalation of force

jdross··on IRS lost 40% of IT staff, 80% of tech leaders in 'efficiency' shakeup
Is there a single private sector more removed from market incentives than healthcare?
jdross··on IRS lost 40% of IT staff, 80% of tech leaders in 'efficiency' shakeup
I'm not saying we shouldn't have an IRS, and I think IRS agents are probably one of the best ROI gov't employees possible, but 8,500 IT engineers and managers (who I have heard literally didn't even know how to code) makes no sense at all
jdross··on IRS lost 40% of IT staff, 80% of tech leaders in 'efficiency' shakeup
Do you know how many people 8,500 employees in IT alone is? Google, all of it, has 60,000 engineers

IRS direct file is just not that complex, I promise you, and are you sure it was even built in house vs contracted?

jdross··on IRS lost 40% of IT staff, 80% of tech leaders in 'efficiency' shakeup
8,500 IT workers in the IRS is insane.

They barely have any products, and they contract externally for so much other work

jdross··on DOGE Track
Is that very different from what Joe Gebbia is doing now as chief design officer? Seems to be largely a rebranding of 18F's mission with different people and prioritization
jdross··on Tesla Sales Down 55% UK, 58% Spain, 59% Germany, 81% Netherlands, 93% Norway
I am so confused when I read things like this because my Tesla model 3 is effectively self driving for me for months now. Hundreds of miles without intervention. No other car I can buy can do this yet
jdross··on AI optimism is a class privilege
The new robot demos from Unitree make me wonder how many classes of unskilled labor are about to be automated (garbage collection, laundry & dishes, pothole repairs, last mile delivery, simple food preparation…)

Skilled labor still has some legs.

jdross··on AI optimism is a class privilege
The set of people who believe the automobile (or the Internet) are net negatives taken as a whole for society is extremely small, for good reason
jdross··on X offices raided in France as UK opens fresh investigation into Grok
Well you could not sue the video-editing software for someone making child pornography with it. You would, quite sanely, go after the pedophiles themselves.
jdross··on Tesla ending Models S and X production
Including Cybertruck, it's just 2.75% of sales

Q4 sales: Model 3 & Model Y: 406,585 deliveries All Other Models (S/X/Cybertruck): 11,642 deliveries

jdross··on New YC homepage
Making money fixes that. Look at some of the featured hairlines
jdross··on California is free of drought for the first time in 25 years
thank you lol
jdross··on California is free of drought for the first time in 25 years
This might be a good time to recommend you all read the first 5 pages of East of Eden by George Steinbeck. It’s about how the Salinas valley goes through flood and draught cycles, and how every time they’re in one cycle they forget the other one ever happened
jdross··on Why didn't AI “join the workforce” in 2025?
Have you been in a Waymo recently or used Tesla FSD 14.2? I live in Austin and my Model 3 is basically autonomous - regularly going for hours from parking space to destination parking space without my touching the steering wheel, navigating really complex situations including construction workers using hand motions to signal the car.
jdross··on Why didn't AI “join the workforce” in 2025?
I work in insurance - regulated, human capital heavy, etc.

Three examples for you: - our policy agent extracts all coverage limits and policy details into a data ontology. This saves 10-20 mins per policy. It is more accurate and consistent than our humans - our email drafting agent will pull all relevant context on an account whenever an email comes in. It will draft a reply or an email to someone else based on context and workflow. Over half of our emails are now sent without meaningfully modifying the draft, up from 20% two months ago. Hundreds of hours saved per week, now spent on more valuable work for clients. - our certificates agent will note when a certificate of insurance is requested over email and automatically handle the necessary checks and follow up options or resolution. Will likely save us around $500k this year.

We also now increasingly share prototypes as a way to discuss ideas. Because the cost to vibe code something illustrative is very low, an it’s often much higher fidelity to have the conversation with something visual than a written document

jdross··on 2025 Letter
You can’t afford to buy a home because the current owners vote to restrict new housing through zoning and expensive regulation on construction permitting, so supply is limited in the places you’re trying to live (a higher income region?).

The government also subsidized mortgages for the prior generation to increase asset values and now that time is up. Subsidized demand = inflation

Finally, you likely want a bigger house than your parents had. And most people want it to be in the cooler area, not somewhere in Iowa where schools are great but restaurants and non-remote jobs are lacking

jdross··on How getting richer made teenagers less free
It is precisely this anxiety that is the issue being discussed. Parents are terrified of what might happen to their kids, so too little happens to their kids (both good and bad)
jdross··on U.S. unemployment rose in November despite job gains
The US job market is way more dynamic than people realize. Roughly 1/5 of jobs are changed every year in roles permanently lost to roles newly created.

Gross job creation & destruction annually is roughly 10–12 percent of all jobs (new positions added and permanently lost across all employers).

This is down from the past, when it was 15-18 percent.

Source: US Census Bureau Data https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_job_destruction_rate

jdross··on Break up bad companies; replace bad union bosses
Not getting everything everyone wants is a pretty common outcome in negotiations. Some people got more sick days. Some didn’t get more sick days. Maybe the ones who didn’t will leave to find work elsewhere with a better schedule?
jdross··on Break up bad companies; replace bad union bosses
Specifically in the US context, this is failing. And 70% of our teachers are unionized, with unionized districts seeming to underperform equivalent non-unionized districts (despite researchers repeatedly trying to find the opposite, the stats just are what they are)

You need to be able to explain this better than “look at Austria”. Nearly everything about Austria is different than the US.

jdross··on Break up bad companies; replace bad union bosses
I would love to address unions in public and semi-public (e.g. teachers' unions, dockworkers, police and fire unions). They are able to hold the public hostage by preventing automation at ports, stopping teaching (often doubling as daycare for children), or withholding public safety.

The counterbalance to a union and to management needs to be customers, but customers aren't able to vote no here. That's fundamentally undemocratic.

And you end up with terrible outcomes like collapsing literacy rates through the prevention of teaching phonics, which leads to parents opting out of public education entirely. There needs to be a feedback mechanism in unions for them to work.

jdross··on Apple reports fourth quarter results
How often do you get a meaningfully better result than google.com/flights? Outside of booking with points, it's all basically the same thing and I can book on google on my phone in under a minute
jdross··on Tesla is heading into multi-billion-dollar iceberg of its own making
I'm a 2024 Tesla Model 3 owner and my car drives me everywhere nearly flawlessly, thousands of miles. For all this I pay something like $500 per month for the lease, including FSD.

It's a miracle product to me, and the comments here about Tesla (not the ones about the story, which are reasonable!) are just so far removed from my personal experience with the product.

jdross··on U.S. already has the critical minerals it needs, according to new analysis
It could actually be very productive. Addicts do not do well with coddling
jdross··on Le Chat: Custom MCP Connectors, Memories
They just did
jdross··on Outside of the top stocks, S&P 500 forward profits haven't grown in 3 years
The very first thing you discover as a business owner managing cashflow is how hard you must work to get customers versus to provide a service.
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