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jjoonathan

24,650 karma · joined July 17, 2012

If you want to send me email, my username is "jon" and my personal domain is "jdewerd.com".
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jjoonathan··on AI and Trust
Same. Which area? For me it was Pittsburgh, New York, and Rome. The problem was absolutely endemic in all three, and I saw it pretty regularly at conferences and on vacations, too.
jjoonathan··on AI and Trust
How many big city taxis did you ride before 2013 or so? They cleaned up their act once they got competition.
jjoonathan··on AI and Trust
The electronic payment that was always "broken" unless you were comfortable enough with confrontation to call the taxi driver's bluff?
jjoonathan··on AI and Trust
> there's also calling to location

Before any wise guys come in here and claim that you could order cabs to a location by phone before uber, I would like to point out that they frequently failed to arrive and you had no way of knowing whether or not they would arrive until you gave up waiting for them, so while you could theoretically do this is was terribly unreliable and often a big mistake.

jjoonathan··on Potential of the Julia programming language for high energy physics computing
Is it good? PyCUDA was so bad (as of 2018) that after 3 major bugfixes from me and no end in sight it still almost sank a major project until I gave up on it and went with native CUDA.
jjoonathan··on Potential of the Julia programming language for high energy physics computing
Ooh, interesting!

Jupyter got rid of their direct javascript interface for security reasons that I don't agree with. Does Pluto.jl have a model where trusting display code is as easy as trusting the code being run?

jjoonathan··on Factory construction boom in the US
Wolf warrior diplomacy was a projection of western insecurity? Ok dude.
jjoonathan··on US warship and multiple commercial ships attacked in the Red Sea
It's a good meme with a good story that goes viral in every community where this kind of story can go viral.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5v6hlRyeHE

jjoonathan··on UniFi Express
Tiny network tyrants gotta flex somehow.
jjoonathan··on Factory construction boom in the US
Thank you Atlantic and Pacific!
jjoonathan··on Factory construction boom in the US
Plenty of countries have used tariffs to successfully develop and protect key industries. Including... the USA!

https://www.gilderlehrman.org/history-resources/spotlight-pr....

The choice to get rid of these policies was made by people who fully understood that doing so would pump assets and dump exports, and that the ability to benefit from the asset pump would be concentrated while the fallout from the dumping of exports would be widespread.

jjoonathan··on Factory construction boom in the US
10 years ago? Yes. Today? No. CCP got caught raiding peoples' savings and needs a scapegoat. Guess who that is.
jjoonathan··on Factory construction boom in the US
Ricardo's Comparative Advantage argument was specifically derived under the condition of closed capital accounts because Ricardo himself didn't only understand but actively warned about what would happen with open capital accounts. Every time he got trotted out to rationalize the policies that deindustrialized the United States he must have been spinning in his grave.

For more, read "Trade Wars are Class Wars" by Klein and Pettis. The thesis is in the title and the case is convincing.

jjoonathan··on Factory construction boom in the US
Peanut is "maní" so a MIRV could be "Muchos Maní"
jjoonathan··on What should I do if I suspect one of the journal reviews I got is AI-generated?
Where previously it took 100 units of effort to deal with 10 units of effort of bullshit, it now takes 100 to deal with 1.

This is only irrelevant if you place no value on the time of yourself and others.

jjoonathan··on Unity Software with a 'company reset' walks away from film VFX and the Wētā Deal
> With clever structuring, they can keep the profits but dump the debt

I've always wondered the degree to which these buyouts are legitimate last-ditch turnaround efforts vs front-running bankruptcy proceedings.

jjoonathan··on Charlie Munger – Feeling Like a Victim Is Perfectly Disastrous
Nothing beats natural light at its best, especially in CA, but gee, all sorts of people default into shitty depressing natural light situations (MA, I'm looking at you) that could be trounced by a mediocre artificial setup. If you listen to the tone of the rhetoric here you'd think Munger was killing babies, when in fact the light situation evidently doesn't even reach everybody's threshold for the simple action of buying a decent lamp. Shrug.
jjoonathan··on Charlie Munger – Feeling Like a Victim Is Perfectly Disastrous
Sure, co-opting a revolution is a common and effective tactic, but so is "fall in line" (or "don't worry about it" or "focus on yourself" -- all identical from a political action perspective). Revolutions can be actually revolutionary. Often they are not, but they can be. "Fall in line" can never be revolutionary.
jjoonathan··on Charlie Munger – Feeling Like a Victim Is Perfectly Disastrous
Affordable housing where all I have to give up is a shitty view? Sign me up!
jjoonathan··on Charlie Munger – Feeling Like a Victim Is Perfectly Disastrous
This is true.

It is also true that dispensing this particular advice is self-serving for people in power.

In a revolution, things get worse before they get better if they get better. Revolutions come at huge negative expected value. However, appeasing powerful forces can also have hugely negative expected value. Sometimes the calculus makes sense, and when it does, you should hope that people are appropriately discounting the self-serving advice from the powerful.

jjoonathan··on The Knight Capital Disaster
> the flag word was out of new bits for flags, so an engineer reused a bit from a deprecated flag

Plus some silent update failures meant that new-feature orders sent to out-of-date servers transformed into old-feature orders. Boom!

> Adding risk checks to the last stage of an order’s life became universal in the industry

I wonder what these "fast-twitch" sanity checks / circuit breakers look like. Whenever I try to model risk, things get complicated quickly -- but presumably simple heuristics must exist if they became universal in the industry.

jjoonathan··on After OpenAI's blowup, it seems pretty clear that 'AI safety' isn't a real thing
> Transformers existed in 2019, and while GPT4 is genuinely advanced, it's not a gigantic leap

I'm referring to the emergent capabilities that show up with scale, which are a gigantic leap. The usual citation suggests that this came into the public consciousness in 2020 [1]. Do you take issue with the timeline or the idea that these were a gigantic leap?

[1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165

jjoonathan··on After OpenAI's blowup, it seems pretty clear that 'AI safety' isn't a real thing
> all signs seem to be pointing toward a longer timeframe rather than a short one

If we time-traveled back to 2019 and showed past-you a demo of GPT4's capabilities and asked you to guess the timeline, would you have gotten it correct to within a decade? I wouldn't have.

It's not crazy to prepare for another jump.

jjoonathan··on Reflecting on 18 Years at Google
It depends on how heavily targeted the terms are. The two big objectively user-hostile lines I was watching and have seen crossed:

1. Removed the yellow background that easily distinguished ads.

2. Zero organic results above the fold.

Obviously #2 doesn't happen every day on every query, but I saw it during the crypto craze and I have seen it during the AI craze.

jjoonathan··on We have reached an agreement in principle for Sam to return to OpenAI as CEO
No, this is the part of the show where the patronizing rhetoric gets trotted out to rationalize discarding the principles that have suddenly become inconvenient for the people with power.
jjoonathan··on OpenAI Boardroom Battle: Safety First
> A non-profit board should not be running a critically important company like OpenAI

A for-profit board should not be running a critically important company like OpenAI.

jjoonathan··on No One Wants to Pay Anymore
"There's a shortage of $30k Lamborghinis!"
jjoonathan··on Altman sought billions for AI chip venture before OpenAI ouster
Wow, that's some Adam Neumann level self-dealing.
jjoonathan··on OpenAI's board has fired Sam Altman
Exactly.

> I'm sure Musk would have made equally commercial bad decisions

jjoonathan··on OpenAI's board has fired Sam Altman
Elon Musk is responsible for the "OpenAI" name and regularly agrees with you that the current form of the company makes a mockery of the name.

He divested in 2018 due to conflict-of-interest with Tesla and while I'm sure Musk would have made equally commercial bad decisions, your analysis of the name situation is as close as can be to factually correct.

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