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jonknee

33,361 karma · joined May 22, 2008

Indie web app hacker (more JS than anything lately, but I prefer Python) and landscape photohgrapher.

Instagram: @tookthescenicroute Email: me@jongales.com

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jonknee··on San Diego Cell Service Possibly Affected by New Operator in Mexico
> on Sprint

Found the problem!

jonknee··on iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max
It's an iPhone backup, of course it's a "walled garden". It works really well, maybe you haven't used it in years. I can literally throw my phone into the ocean, walk into an Apple Store and within a short time be right back to where I was. About the only things that get lost are Face ID and Apple Pay, which don't last through any backup because the Secure Element is one way.
jonknee··on iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max
I think you're reading way to into the naming scheme. They simply ran out of letters and went with Pro to designate the more expensive model. It's still a smartphone, it's not like there is a large market out there for people who make and edit feature films with phones.
jonknee··on iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max
I guess we have different ideas of pro users. I'll take the cloud storage / backup any day of the week. If you're really doing the math on $3 a month you probably shouldn't be looking at a $1000 phone regardless of storage capacity.
jonknee··on iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max
I mean that's like booing the Lightning connector. It's a known quantity and is no worse this year than last year.
jonknee··on iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max
iCloud storage makes it fairly easy to not keep everything you've ever recorded on your phone, it really depends on the user. Back when you kept all your music and all your photos/video it was more critical to have a ton of storage locally.

Most people buying the expensive model will probably opt for more storage, but for those that don't need it I don't see a problem with offering a lower tier.

jonknee··on iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max
Because it has been that way for years? Why would people boo for the existing structure?
jonknee··on iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max
And yet way more iPhones with camera bumps have been sold than ones without. Life moves on. In the real world almost everyone uses a case and that negates any camera bump. People will make fun of it for a day or two online, but it just doesn't matter.
jonknee··on 94k Bitcoin (1B USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet
> completely anonymously

Except we're all out here talking about this and no one knows what other $1bn transactions have occurred in the banking system today so we're not talking about those.

jonknee··on 94k Bitcoin (1B USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet
Banks typically treat billionaire customers differently too, it's absolutely ludicrous to think they'd have to use hundreds of thousands of transactions (let alone pay for them!).
jonknee··on 94k Bitcoin (1B USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet
It would be free if done through a bank and you could actually get a lot of free steaks out of it. Once you have a little bit of money banks start treating you well, when you have a lot of bit of money they treat you really well.
jonknee··on 94k Bitcoin (1B USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet
Do you really think people use 400,000 transactions costing $20 apiece to move large amounts of money? If you keep a billion dollars in a bank account (!) you can simply call your private banker and have it done with no fee.
jonknee··on US city rejects $5.3M ransom demand and restores encrypted files from backup
> "I decided to make a counter-offer using insurance proceeds in the amount of $400,000, which I determined to be consistent with ransoms recently paid by other municipalities," Mayor Mitchell said during a press conference (image above). "The attacker declined to make a counter-offer, rejecting the city's position outright."

Because that's what they had an insurance policy for.

jonknee··on A critique of the claim that passive investing is a bubble
Why shouldn't there be lots of kinds of indexes? There are certainly ones like you describe. In practice it just doesn't matter, the large companies are so much larger that adding even thousands of tiny companies doesn't move the needle.

VTI is Vanguard's total stock market ETF which works like what you suggest. It has 3,606 stocks, year-to-date it's up 18.82%. Compare that to Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF VOO which is up 19.03%.

When a company hits its stride and is large enough to really make it difference it will join the S&P 500. I guess if there were a lot more than 500 companies that you should own there would be a problem, but we're not there currently.

If you want exposure to small caps it's much more efficient to own an index of small caps. Their performance has seriously lagged in recent times though, so just owning VOO has been the way to go for a long time.

jonknee··on A critique of the claim that passive investing is a bubble
Yes, but strategies change in a crash. It's possible no one learned from the 2015 flash crash, but I bet a lot of smart funds out there are ready for one. If a dumb AP is going to put out a crazy price someone is going to be there to snap it up.
jonknee··on A critique of the claim that passive investing is a bubble
Authorized participants arbitrage all day, if they see dislocation they can certainly hold on to certain names.
jonknee··on A critique of the claim that passive investing is a bubble
Yes, if indexes sell off any many times their average daily volume that means components will as well. That's fine. If something happens where people are selling the S&P 500 down 20% in a single trading session (the full day circuit breaker limit) there should be chaos amongst the components because shit has hit the fan. Savvy players will scoop up deals, most people will do nothing and life will move on.
jonknee··on Stripe Capital
Usury laws typically apply to consumers, not loans to businesses. They also probably wouldn't count this type of financing as a loan. Regardless, this exact method of financing already exists and is very popular so I'm going to go on a limb and say that it's legal.
jonknee··on Stripe Capital
Yes, a greatly improved experience is exactly Stripe's MO. That is innovative in my book.
jonknee··on Stripe Capital
No application and approval process?
jonknee··on Stripe Capital
Here's a twitter thread from John Collison detailing why they launched this. It sounds pretty innovative (not exactly a surprise considering it's Stripe!).

https://twitter.com/collision/status/1169660488374001664

> Since 2008, loans made to small businesses have decreased in absolute terms by 41%. Banks have been pulling back from SMB lending.

> When businesses can get a bank loan, they spend an average of 25 hours on paperwork and wait weeks or months for approval.

> For internet businesses, capital is vital to growth: for marketing spend, inventory, engineering, and much else.

> Stripe users report access to capital as one of the top factors affecting their growth.

jonknee··on WeWork Parent Weighs Slashing Its Valuation in Half
Well that's a different thing than what the OP claimed (marking up an investment with a tiny secondary round). They marked it up with a giant round!
jonknee··on WeWork Parent Weighs Slashing Its Valuation in Half
Sure, which also happens every time there's a big down move in the market. Actually per prospect theory it is often the best performers that get sold first:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposition_effect

Regardless, my point is smart stock pickers will come in and bid up companies that get oversold. No damage done unless you tried to time the market in your IRA and sold at the bottom. People who continue automatic purchases of broad indexes will be happy (at some point!) for the discount.

jonknee··on WeWork Parent Weighs Slashing Its Valuation in Half
As opposed to all the recessions/crises before indexing where stocks didn't go down? Sharp people will scoop up great names at a discount just like always.
jonknee··on WeWork Parent Weighs Slashing Its Valuation in Half
Wow, a whole $86m or .4% of SNAP!
jonknee··on WeWork Parent Weighs Slashing Its Valuation in Half
Well they also have a significant share of invested funds ($5.3 trillion under management!), it would be really weird if they didn't have a significant share of many companies.
jonknee··on WeWork Parent Weighs Slashing Its Valuation in Half
I mean they put in $2b in the last round, that's not exactly chump change!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-wework-m-a-softbank/softb...

jonknee··on Facebook Dating
Facebook has pitched this showing young people so I assumed that's their market. I guess the boomer dating market is probably underserved, maybe that's what they're actually going for.
jonknee··on Facebook Dating
Among all people sure, but among people in the dating demographic? I would not be surprised at all if more people in prime dating ages are on IG than FB (especially in an active manner, do young people post on FB in any real way?).
jonknee··on Banned from Google Ads for Using Apple Card
Extreme cases like using a popular new credit card to pay? Please. Google uses an algorithm to ban people for life without recourse, it's insane. Not everything can be reduced to an algo, sometimes you need to make exceptions. It can even make your algo better (thousands of people are going to try using their new Apple cards in the coming weeks).
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