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jtc331

1,389 karma · joined July 26, 2011

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jtc331··on PostgreSQL 15: Stats Collector Gone? What’s New?
pg_repack has some significant downsides in its implementation; I question whether it’s really a default over re-indexing concurrently. I’ve certainly not gotten that impression, and we maintain many very large Postgres clusters.
jtc331··on “Logistics”, an 857-hour movie, tracks a pedometer from shop back to factory
Are the containers actually full? Or just the empty containers ready to refill?
jtc331··on 'Too many employees, but few work': Pichai, Zuckerberg sound the alarm
That’s nonsense. It’s extremely hard to fire people in many corps. I’ve personally seen it take years even when everyone agreed (including management) someone needed to go. And often the paperwork threshold is so high that even people producing negative work aren’t fired; you just hope they eventually move on since you’re not giving them raises etc.
jtc331··on Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
Isn’t that still circular though? Knowledge of the mainstream research isn’t the same as “knowledge of what’s correct”; the person who holds the non-consensus view may have equal or higher levels of knowledge about the path that got them to non-consensus.

At some level you might reasonably expect what you described to be tautological: the person holding the mainstream view knows more about they things surrounding that view. But do they know the alternatives?

It’d be interest to compare the knowledge level the person holding the consensus view has about the non-consensus view to vice versa.

jtc331··on US regulators will certify first small nuclear reactor design
My understanding is most of this waste also isn’t as dangerous or as long-lasting.
jtc331··on ‘Solar tower’ system produces jet fuel from CO2, water, and sunlight
Your math is way off. A single PV produces between 300-400 watts at peak sun. It takes ~300 watt hours to drive an EV 1 mile. A very good sunny location gets 6-7 peak sun hours equivalent a day.

So that one panel gets you 6-7 miles of EV range a day.

A typical house needs probably 15-20 panels to produces it’s needs (assuming you have storage) before EVs are even in the picture.

jtc331··on We could have universal Covid vaccines soon
You literally ignored all of the parent’s points about wildly changing promises and narratives and inconsistencies to make this for into your story about this just being about an “ unhealthy mix of exceptionalism, anti-intellectualism and contrarianism”.
jtc331··on We could have universal Covid vaccines soon
> cost under $20

Per-dose cost is meaningless. Now do “multi billion dollar government paid for contracts”.

jtc331··on In defence of garlic in a jar
You equivocated from “sharp” to “expensive” which means you’re the one that’s introducing gatekeeping not who you’re responding to.

Inexpensive knives can be sharp. America’s Test Kitchen recommends a $35 knife as their best chef’s knife.

jtc331··on What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?
Serial passaging is effectively all “natural” (but intentional) infection. That wouldn’t leave signs of molecular techniques since none would be involved.

Anyone claiming to disprove the lab leak hypothesis by making a claim against solely molecular engineering is either hilariously uninformed or intentionally misleading you.

jtc331··on Are blockchains decentralized?
Hash power in the context of potential forks in the BTC chain, not a different coin.
jtc331··on Budget Culture and the Dave Ramseyfication of Money
Financial safety is generally more about cash flow than how it’s typically portrayed, and so paying off (even lower interest) smaller loans first increases your resilience to unexpected expenses (because your cash flow is more flexible now).

There’s a psychological reason too (already commented on by others here), but there is a math reason too (cash flow).

jtc331··on Important PostgreSQL 14 update to avoid silent corruption of indexes
No, it's indicative of the complexity of the system.

Please show other similarly complex systems with fewer bugs: basically doesn't happen.

jtc331··on Citigroup plans to hire 4k tech staff
ISTM the definition of title inflation should be something like “titles frequently connote a significantly higher level of responsibility than the title holder actually has”.

If the title communicates incorrect information it isn’t merely a different convention; it actively causes confusion.

jtc331··on Coffee drinking linked to lower mortality risk, new study finds
> Science doesn't get much more certain than this

A well designed RCT isn’t much more certain than this?

Observational studies are hardly the peak for scientific knowledge.

jtc331··on Germany is offering a summer of cheap trains
And we’ll over 2x the population.
jtc331··on Surgery estimated cost $1,300. Then the Bill Came: $229,000
People keep saying “in secret” but that’d only be true if it happened after it were filed or some such. Giving someone an amended contract isn’t fraud.
jtc331··on Surgery estimated cost $1,300. Then the Bill Came: $229,000
It’s not secret. This is standard contract negotiation (sending along a new draft).
jtc331··on What we can deduce from a leaked PDF
> > there’s no reason for a supporter or an opponent to leak an old draft now.

It's a big assumption that it's an old draft. It could also be the last draft circulated, and that everything since has been on concurrences or minority opinions.

jtc331··on What we can deduce from a leaked PDF
> In 2018, Bloomberg Busi­ness­week published a story called “The Big Hack” that was vigor­ously denied by Apple and Amazon. Based on these denials, certain tech blog­gers became convinced that the story was false. The fact that neither Apple nor Amazon sued Bloomberg for defama­tion—despite being extremely rich, finicky, and liti­gious—made nary a dent.

No, people concluded that because there were so many holes in the Bloomberg reporting that didn't make any sense conceptually.

jtc331··on CDC tracked millions of phones to see if Americans followed lockdown orders
Anthony Fauci has been at NIH since 1968. That might be a rare example, but long careers do happen.
jtc331··on I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government
Options? Or RSUs?
jtc331··on I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government
Not if it’s a physical keylogger, which I think was the primary concern.
jtc331··on The Dunning-Kruger Effect Is Autocorrelation
It's an explanation for why our anecdotal intuition concludes what it does here.

I think you're misreading the point of my comment.

jtc331··on The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown
Given how China repeatedly covered up COVID from early on...I think the starting point is assuming that the numbers coming out of there are not accurate.

> this level of spread would be trivial to infer from antibody tests of people traveling to China.

Who is doing that testing?

jtc331··on How we upgraded our 4TB Postgres database
Yes, though I've only ever seen people use the term "dual writing" to refer to something at a higher-than-DB-level.

The way I've done this involves logical replication also: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31087197

jtc331··on Manganese could be the secret behind truly mass-market EVs
Frankly you won’t see many in the US either, just like you don’t see many ICE Hummers.
jtc331··on I can't let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation”
One does not need to have done social science research to be able to recognize obvious general philosophy of science level problems with the methods used in much social science.

I’d we take your claim seriously then we have to disallow all critiques of the replicatability crisis in the social sciences that don’t come from social scientists, but that would present an obvious new problem: conflict of interest. It’s also just an absurd requirement.

jtc331··on How we upgraded our 4TB Postgres database
Dual writing has huge downsides: namely you're now moving consistency into the application, and it's almost guaranteed that the databases won't match in any interesting application.
jtc331··on How we upgraded our 4TB Postgres database
Preconditions:

1. Route all traffic through pgbouncer in transaction pooling mode.

2. Logically replicate from old to new.

For failover:

1. Ensure replication is not far behind.

2. Issue a PAUSE on pgbouncer.

3. Wait for replication to be fully caught up.

4. Update pgbouncer config to point to the new database.

5. Issue a RELOAD on pgbouncer.

6. Issue a RESUME on pgbouncer.

Zero downtime; < 2s additional latency for in-flight queries at time of op is possible (and I've done it at scale).

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