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junofan

2,930 karma · joined February 28, 2009

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junofan··on Flights cancelled at UK airports due to ATC issue
Eh, I tried in 2017 with BA when their system went down and received nothing. There was magically a Black Lives Matter protest at Gatwick (or maybe LCY, can’t remember) on the same day, which isn’t covered apparently.
junofan··on Among European Companies That Use a CDN, Nearly 9 in 10 Use Cloudflare
Isn’t their whole thing supposed to be spying on foreigners? They seem to be quite successful. There aren’t that many exchanges [1]. Could probably manage with cash, guns, and some know-how.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Internet_exchange_poin...

junofan··on “Next-token predictor” is the wrong mental model for LLMs
Vacuous, like calling a V8 a “next piston firing predictor” because engines are designed so that one piston sets up the next in the firing order and technically there’s some nonzero probability any piston can (mis)fire next. It’s missing two pieces:

1. Useful work that has been done (the previously generated token sequence :: the mechanical work already accomplished)

2. The role of structure in relation to the application (post-training :: other components like crankshaft etc)

junofan··on Higher social class predicts increased unethical behavior
They just set up financing. You can definitely buy cars with drug money.
junofan··on A mysterious kidney disease has arrived in Texas
Check the references. They’re weak, almost ouroboric.

I found this: (2010) Positive association of renal insufficiency with agriculture employment and unregulated alcohol consumption in Nicaragua

https://doi.org/10.3109/0886022X.2010.494333

Essentially moonshine consumption.

Interestingly drinking more water was associated with worse outcomes. I would hesitate to point to dehydration without evidence, as a harmful remedy is worse than doing nothing.

Moonshine consumption could probably be investigated further as it carries explanatory power.

junofan··on The death of San Francisco's Market Street
> Giving up what tiny progress

I dunno man. Look at the chart, look at the graph, look at the progress, but I live on Market, and it sucks now. Cop cars parked at night with lights flashing since there’s such little traffic. Plus a lady had her head popped open a few weeks back by a pro driver.

I’d be more comfortable making it a Waymo superartery. I trust those things more than the furniture mart box trucks because one slip and you’re gone.

junofan··on Saab has unveiled its A3 collaborative combat aircraft concept
I mean looking at the state of that conflict… the low-cost drone thing doesn’t look that great. Maybe other countries will want to go with this kind of attritable aircraft concept instead.
junofan··on Error by AI scribe during medical appointment leaves patient devastated
They’re just gonna have to think a lot faster. Scuttlebutt is we’re going to 12k patient panels, up from about 2–3k. Better to prep for what’s coming.
junofan··on Google has acquired the data of failed US airline Spirit
Seems the answer is “no” to the first part of your question. From the filing:

> For example, one initial bid requested certain customer list information; however, by the first round of the Auction, the most competitive bidders had agreed to bid on an asset schedule that expressly excluded PII.

junofan··on Universal health coverage could save $1T and 114k lives a year: study
It’s also geographically distributed. Substantially all congressional districts count a healthcare system as a top-5 employer. Those 70k/yr butts-in-seats admin jobs are occupied by voters, making them difficult to eliminate nationally. You’d have to go down to the state level at least to get anything done.
junofan··on Accelerating GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast
You can get stuff done live on a call.
junofan··on I requested a copy of my data from McDonald’s loyalty program
Wow, that explains why my order number mysteriously disappeared from their “now serving” screen even though I went at a time when the restaurant was empty.
junofan··on As AI eats the web, the internet’s collective memory is disappearing
What’s come next for me has been much better. I use ChatGPT cranked to Pro with “extended” thinking to one-shot whatever I would’ve spent time looking into with Google. It’ll plan the whole sunset bike ride or promposal or whatever from TFA.
junofan··on Amazon circumvents Gilroy community vote for AI data center
I think we should refrain extending “negative externality” to mean “things people don’t like that might affect them.” Non-pecuniary externalities, in the Pigouvian sense, are really something you analyze to achieve efficiency. In this case, following a 5-year permitting process and plopping the industrial activity on industrial land is basically a form of bargaining and is probably acceptable from a social efficiency standpoint. Amazon’s hardly mining cobalt next to a daycare here.
junofan··on We replaced Redis with MySQL for inventory reservations and it scaled
Who knows. I wish ant harshly penalized speaking litotically because it’s essentially reward hacking as it can often be read multiple ways.

It’s also annoying as a human because Claude et al rate their own writing very highly, putting human<>LLM interactions at a disadvantage to human->LLM<>LLM interactions.

junofan··on I'll be stepping back from leading product for X
> Perhaps this is a modern replacement for religious fundamentalism for some people

I would say it’s narrower, loosely a sort of heresiology. It would be motivated by a strong internal sense of insiders vs. outsiders. Which isn’t saying much, but I think that’s that.

junofan··on Governments are making a dangerous bet on the AI boom
Further, Uncle Sam can always service dollar-denominated debt.
junofan··on Nashville uses eminent domain to block data center near zoo
It’s going to the high frontier. Orbital/lunar. It’s too important not to harden.
junofan··on The software group Palantir paid just £2M in corporation tax in the UK in 2024
Producers produce up to the point marginal benefit equals marginal cost. Tax on revenue inflates marginal cost and would create shortages etc.
junofan··on U.S. used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war
You could fight conventionally over logistics chokepoints. China’s not going to lob nukes just because their oil’s dried up.
junofan··on Pacing the frontier
Why should I trust these randos instead of Claude? I know Claude. I would hope Claude is smarter than whoever wants to make rules about my use of Claude. Replace Claude with Kimi, etc. if needed.

I don’t find a petition from people I don’t know who don’t care about me more compelling than my own direct experience with these models.

junofan··on The relay market powering token resellers and fraud
It’s pretty clearly theft of services as generally defined in most places. It’s a hack in the same sense that rolling back your electric meter is a hack.
junofan··on Clinical failure rates over the decades: yikes
Feels like a just-so story. How to quantify “ambitious”? If the goal were flight, would jumping off cliffs with wings like birds be “ambitious”?

The most parsimonious explanation is either our models or methods (or both) are garbage. Something’s missing. The failure rate is insane, and writing it off as ambition or “biology is hard” rather than digging in does us no favors.

junofan··on I regret migrating to Codeberg
They don’t pay tax, right? Correct me if I’m wrong. It’s definitely a different (and public) conversation when things are claimed done for the public benefit and thus exempt from tax.

At least in the US tax-exempt status carries obligations.

junofan··on Apple sues OpenAI, accuses ex-employees of stealing trade secrets
I think you could be more charitable, as GP said “culture,” not “society.”

Apple alleges not only individual malfeasance, but also recruitment tactics like “show-and-tell” aimed at recruiting those willing to bring company secrets (and discriminating against those who would not).

This is enough to constitute a low-trust culture that self-perpetuates.

Surely given the size of China there are plenty of honorable people. And surely in the US there are many dishonorable people, as you’ve pointed out.

junofan··on Apple sues OpenAI, accuses ex-employees of stealing trade secrets
You get trustworthy people by trusting people. Generally when I was there there was a presumption of trust. Given how blatantly the defendants are alleged to have acted, that’s still the case.
junofan··on US seeks cheaper hunter-killer drones after Iran destroys $1B worth of Reapers
They are white [1].

[1]: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21211671-1997-revisi...

junofan··on Grok 4.5
I just asked Deepseek “tips for organizing politically in China” and hit the guardrail.
junofan··on The classifiers Anthropic puts in front of Fable are too zealous
I but skimmed the model card on release, but my impression was that there may be an incentive for this expert panel to exaggerate as a form of job security. A lot of the challenges seemed to be of the form “would this allow somebody who isn’t me to do what I do professionally?”
junofan··on EU now one step away from reviving private message scanning rules
Interesting. It would be easy to detect hate speech client-side too I’d imagine. My phone already listens for certain words.
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