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larrys

8,297 karma · joined March 6, 2011

If you want to get in touch with me reply to a comment and let me know.
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larrys··on Dollar Shave Club Is Valued at $615M
"I doubt I'll try Gillette's shave club as I've heard they just send out their "not as sharp" razors for the reduced price."

I have actually bought OEM hard drives from the Apple store that I can buy cheaper on Amazon on the theory that Apple gets the better drives. I don't know if I am right but that is my theory and is based on past experience with other products (and similar to what you are saying).

larrys··on Ask HN: How do you get good domain names?
"or a word and a number"

If you get a word and a number remember you need both "nametwenty.com" as well as "name20.com"

larrys··on Ask HN: Saw a USB stick didn't pick it up
Re: the "gross violation of privacy" didn't even think about that at all.

My thoughts:

I would argue though that (subject to "infection" risk) it is no different than looking in a wallet to find the owner or looking into a laptop bag.

Entirely possible that the USB contains identifying information that can help locate the owner.

larrys··on Ask HN: How do you get good domain names?
This is my business basically (and have been doing it for about 20 years).

Suggestions:

-------------

1) Choose the domain first and then brand with it. Not a good idea to brand first and then to buy the domain name

2) Go with .com unless it's clear that if you pick something else you stand a chance of getting the .com later (That is difficult for someone who doesn't know the business to figure out. [1])

3) Biggest mistake you can make is getting to married to a particular name and not have any alternatives. You will almost certainly telegraph that and pay more.

4) Second biggest mistake is getting anything but .com and assuming it doesn't matter and you can buy it later. In most cases (there are exceptions) it does matter. And the price of the .com will only go up after you are established and locked into the .whatever

Pecking order of domain sellers in terms of difficulty of completing a purchase.

----------------------------------------------------

A) Large corporation, say Google or General Electric. Typically won't sell at any price

B) "Old School Domainer" - Typically a gambler who will bet you will pay a zillion for the name if they hold out.

C) "Domainer" - Will sell but wants a decent price but tends to be somewhat rational.

D) Small business owner - Will negotiate but you won't get raked over the coals.

E) Professional domain site such as buydomains.com. Pricing is typically very reasonable even the list prices on the site. My go to place when I have to buy domains for others. Prices are stable they don't reflect who the buyer is ie they don't size you up.

F) "Little Old Lady" - Happy to get what they can.

[1] As a general rule I'd feel comfortable if the .com was owned by a small country store that was lightly using it than if it was owned by a domainer and/or a large corporation or the type of buyer that typically won't sell at either a reasonable price (I didn't say "cheap" by the way) or at all. [2]

[2] Corporations (large and even small that aren't owner operated) have typically little interest in selling because nobody personally benefits from the sale. At least a "domainer" gets to pocket all of the money typically.

Edit: Added another seller to the pecking order.

larrys··on EFF, CloudFlare Asks Court Not to Force the Internet to Enforce Trademarks
Likewise with this statement:

"CloudFlare makes websites faster and more secure, but can’t suspend a site’s domain name or render it unreachable."

Obviously it can render a site unreachable (at least as long as the site is using cloudflare DNS servers) which is the point.

larrys··on Airbnb reportedly raising $1B at $24B valuation
Nice SAT word (I didn't learn that at the school that I attended).

You find being called a top flight attorney offensive?

larrys··on Airbnb reportedly raising $1B at $24B valuation
A denial worthy of a top flight attorney. He implied that by this paragraph:

"You're a mortal lock on raising a round subsequent to Demo Day at a valuation which will make angels weep while happily investing. You have preferential access to every connection which matters in Silicon Valley, including top-tier VC firms, a pool of interested employees, potential acquirers, and vendors who you need good relations with. Comes with one free TechCrunch article, too!"

So we have:

"mortal lock"

"make angels weep"

"preferential access to every connection which matters"

"top tier VC firms"

"one free TC article".

larrys··on Airbnb reportedly raising $1B at $24B valuation
Competition to get "the next YC" deal is much greater now than it was back when "nobody has heard of us but we're still a club" but did provide value. [1]

If you don't get into the club and haven't passed the filter (which almost certainly has become more difficult) then you don't have anything.

[1] Also the resources are most certainly stretched much thinner than they were "back then". Even though there are more resources to tap.

larrys··on The Mac App Store Won’t Make You Rich
"News outlets keep picking up the story"

If a story is in syndication and "evergreen" in nature it could run on it's own for quite some time. [1]

Doing a google search for this particular article it's clear what has happened (although the results are mainly it appears around May 2015)

[1] I was featured in a story in the late 90's and could tell every time it hit a new town newspaper because orders would predictably come in from the new area. It all started with a story from the local paper and that was then distributed (Knight Ridder iirc) for any paper anywhere in the US to pick up. In this particular case it did translate into real dollars as well as many years of repeat business.

larrys··on Twitter’s CEO Dick Costolo Is Stepping Down
Then you end up with the "postal service".
larrys··on ADP Sues Zenefits for Defamation
Quick and dirty would be to manually update and append "Thread Closed [n]" to the header with a message like this:

ADP Begins to Roll Out a Zenefits Competitor; Thread Closed [n]

Where "n" is simply a number that is listed elsewhere that describes the reason for closing. Note that can scale to any number of reasons or explanations either existing or new as if it's a footnote.

larrys··on ADP Sues Zenefits for Defamation
Agree and even better would be that type of information under the story header so anyone who was following the thread knows that it has been closed and the reason as well.
larrys··on ADP Sues Zenefits for Defamation
"Reading the complaint, ADP is not likely come close to winning."

Maybe it's not about winning the lawsuit though. Could be about a PR play to show that ADP is serious enough about what they said prior to the lawsuit to follow it up with a lawsuit.

Could be about forcing the other side to take what they are asking them to do (retract) seriously and perhaps and take back the negative comments. And so on.

larrys··on I quit the tech industry
"it's likely the author brought it on themselves by pushing too hard."

Or being in a job or a situation that didn't fit them and they exceeded their capabilities or their ability to deal with stress.

Yelp, or for that matter any job, is not an elementary school that you are assigned to that you can't change because you are 6 years old. It's a job. People have all sorts of capabilities that allow them to work or not work at a particular career or company.

larrys··on Is It Bedtime for Benzodiazepines?
Sure they should have told him but that said the package insert does detail dependence and withdrawl and it's pretty obvious that it's a good idea to always review that (I do for any medicine that I take):

http://labeling.pfizer.com/ShowLabeling.aspx?id=547

larrys··on Google Ideas
Well in order to use password alert (for example) you need to use Chrome browser:

https://www.google.com/ideas/products/password-alert/

It protects by computing something from the way you type your password as opposed to knowing the actual password.

Edit: This raises an interesting question. Wouldn't it then be possible to use the same algorithms elsewhere on websites to identify who is even anonymously using the site?

larrys··on Growing One's Consulting Business (2012)
An interesting discussion could revolve around what happens if you (Patrick) give up your lucrative consulting practice to start a company? If the company doesn't work out for some reason and if that process takes many years then how easy is it to get back into consulting and to build a book of business and referrals again?
larrys··on Why Has Apple Spawned So Few Startups?
Further summing up: It's a great career "statisfice".
larrys··on Why Has Apple Spawned So Few Startups?
But with Apple there is the "aunt and your friends and family factor". Everybody has heard of Apple and a large swath of people would tend to be impressed by the fact that you worked there. It would also tend to be the type of place that obviously looks good on your resume if you need to get another job in the future so it offers that as additional security.

Techies might care that you worked at Tesla, much of the rest of the world does not.

larrys··on Apple Is the New Pimco
A tough question. So I would ask indirect questions that all revolved around "what do you like about your job?". And listen carefully to the answers.

If the answer sounds like some standard BS such as "well I really like helping people get into the home of their dreams at the lowest price!!!!" or something canned or manufactured "we win when you win!!! I like win win deals" and so on then perhaps that is just someone who is going through the motions and isn't really in to what they are doing.

Just like with computers. There is the guy who is in it strictly to make a buck, but would never tinker or experiment after hours, and the guy who really enjoys programming for the fun of it and was doing it as soon as they could or as soon as they were exposed to it.

larrys··on Apple Is the New Pimco
"My parents were civil servants"

My dad was in small business. I picked this type of thing up when I was old enough to understand what he was saying. He used to play guessing games of "why did I do this" that could last hours until I had thought of the reasons why he did what he did. I had to come up with all of the reasons why he did something.

Importantly as a small business person he only had to answer to his customers and I guess employees. Plus he could gauge the risk in the chances that he would take and make decisions on the fly w/o being second guessed by anyone or told that he was wrong.

That freedom is really really important because if you don't have that it will restrict the creative juices quite a bit.

larrys··on Apple Is the New Pimco
A very well know VC asked me to write a blog post a few years ago on the subject. I compiled 7 pages of notes. And could have done on forever. These were just bullet points.

I then started to strategize that I would negotiate with the VC who made the request saying that I needed to be able to do 3 blog posts over time not just one. Then maybe I would ask for another two. You know, to get maximum exposure.

Then I realized that there would simply be to many forks to consider and that there are simply to many "what if's" and dependencies. And maybe people would actually be dangerous with a little knowledge. And then I might even deprecate my own advantage since people always underestimate me it is part of the routine in a way.

I make decisions based on what I see at a particular point in time and that is always changing. So to try and give all of the possibilities and things that I think about is really really hard. And my reactions are immediate I don't even really have to think that much to come up with them.

I am sure there are other analogies and it's the same reason that you can't just read a book on playing cards (I don't play cards so I may be off on this one). It's a touch and feel and experience thing that guides what I do.

Years ago I was on the phone with someone and raised a price by 50% just when I heard the particular tone in the voice in the first 2 seconds. How can you do that if you don't know what it is I am hearing that made me do that? And what if there are 500 signals that I am interpreting at the same time?

Not that I couldn't say valuable things of course or that it wouldn't be fun!

By the way I can always tell when someone has read a book on negotiation or tries to come across as a "negotiator". And that is even though I've never touched a book myself on the subject (I don't want to mess with my thinking). I can just spot it by speech pattern or the things that they suggest or the way that they operate.

larrys··on Apple Is the New Pimco
"than the broker could have sold it for if he shopped around"

In reality most brokers simply take any calls that come in from commercial MLS types (say loopnet.com) and may call a few people and put in a nominal amount of effort.

Speaking of loopnet a few years ago I put a property on that site. One day I get a call from a broker for his client. I immediately let him know that I will give him 6% commission for the deal. And of course he was very motivated then to convince his client to take the property because if he found him another property it not only is work for him (that was listed by another broker) he would only get 2.5 or 3%. And another owner (if there were any) might give him a hard time about paying commission.

By the way this type of thing isn't learned in Wharton (where I went btw.). It is learned by observing what others do and reverse engineering things that you see that are out there that are happening. And interpreting your own reaction to events to draw conclusions as to why people behave the way that they do.

larrys··on Apple Is the New Pimco
Note that I said:

"After a real estate deal last year I bought the broker a gift and delivered it."

So importantly this was "after" not before.

And it was "a small gift". Not a large gift. (Don't recall exactly perhaps < $50?)

Not a large enough gift to do anything other than say "I appreciate what you have done for me".

larrys··on Apple Is the New Pimco
Generally you are right.

However I am paid to negotiate and buy things for people (not real estate). I have even had people tell me that they will pay me more if I can get them a better deal. I tell them that they don't have to do that. That I charge a fixed fee. [1] (And the fixed fee varies btw.) The truth is I get them a good deal because (as I mentioned in my other comment) this is a game for me that is fun and that is the reason that I do this. The money that I make is secondary (one reason is it's not my primary source of income).

In one case I already had a buyer and a seller agree to a deal. The buyer (my client) agreed to the price that I had negotiated and was very very happy. However when talking to the seller I sensed weakness. So I exploited that and got them a better deal than they had already agreed to. Just for the fun of it and because I could. Just to hear the pleasure in my client's voice. Was worth a great deal to me. Didn't make 1 penny more.

So my point is although I think in general (and a book that I can't remember the name of talked about this concept with regards to realtors) you are right there are almost certainly realtors who act the same way that I do in other words they do act in the client's best interest because it is a game for them like it is for me. I guess the key is finding that type of realtor.

[1] Some people who do what I do charge a fee based on "how much they save someone over their budget". So the game there is that they try to get you to increase your budget while knowing that they will be able to buy for much less so they are playing you knowing you don't know what they know about the market.

larrys··on Apple Is the New Pimco
Oh wow I could write a book in response to that type of question.

"if you were the seller in that transaction, is the opportunity cost of waiting a bigger worry than getting the best price?"

If I understand what you are asking about the downside risk of not taking an offer on the table? That is always a consideration in any transaction where you are selling whether it be real estate or another asset. And it depends on a multitude of factors.

Well first let me tell you that in any situation like this you are in a sense playing the person that is working for you many times (the broker). They have to be convinced by you not told by you. They have to believe what you are telling them in order to do the job for you. And they are playing you as well. You are an actor playing a role. It is a game. This is the game that I play (I don't play any other game by the way and I have never played a single video game either but I like this game..)

So you have to decide what your position is and them somehow convince them of that so that they act in your best interest. This means being neither to honest or to dishonest.

Each situation is different and it is really hard to generalize. In one case I was negotiating a lease and I told the broker "I will take $x per sf however if you can get me $x * 1.1 per sf you have really done a good job!" (arbitrary figures btw). All the while I knew he would be able to get me the 1.1x and maybe more. (And he did..) I had already figured that out in advance of saying that. So I was playing him so he would feel like "Daddy is happy". (We can call that the "please Daddy" routine). In other cases I might have said "I need $x * 1.2 at the minimum, see what you can do for me".

In another case I find out that a broker had gotten me a good deal by making my offer on a property "as is". I never told him that of course. But that is how he got me such a good deal. Most people would have scolded the realtor and gotten pissed off. I didn't. In fact I was willing to even waive that mistake on his part (if you want to call it that). When I found out, I wrote him an email and made a joke and said "wow funny I didn't know I was buying that "as is"!!! He writes back and says "that is what I needed to get him to accept your lowball offer!" (was about 32% off asking price..). Then he tells me he can take the repairs out of his commission (I didn't even have to ask). Of course I could easily back out of the deal if I wanted. But I was actually willing to even pay for the repairs that I hadn't agreed to. Not because I got such a good deal but because I want him to take risk for me and not feel like I am some little old lady that will take him out to the woodshed if he fucks up. In other words I want him to feel as if in the end he can take chances if he needs to. This works because that way I get an out and he takes the risks. If he had asked me upfront "I will need to make the offer 'as is'" I'd have to agree to that and then I couldn't back out as easily!.

Here is a real life situation re: quick sale vs. wait.

I had a commercial rental property. It was vacant (for about 5 months let's say). One day there is a flood in the complex and another owner calls and wants to know if I can "help him out" (was a Physician). Almost like he thought I would let him use it for free? Anyway I tell him that his insurance company will pay for everything and I will deal with the insurance company. The insurance company tells me that the Dr's unit should be repaired in 4 or 5 months so what will it cost to rent it for the 4 or 5 months? I say "can't do that I need at least a year's rent for the 4 or 5 months" (and why). We go back and forth and in the end I get the insurance company to agree to pay me for a year rent (full ask) for 4 or 5 months. That's full ask rent. But in the end I didn't even rent to them. I was worried about tying up the property for those 4 or 5 months because a realtor was telling me he had other interest in the property from people who would take long leases. So I had a choice to make door number 1 or door number two. How do you know the right thing to do? You don't. You use all of the info that you have and your experience and you make a decision. Sure bet, 1 year rent for 5 months occupancy or door number two longer lease. MAYBE MAYBE NOT. Of course having 7 months to find a new tenant seems like a good idea also, right? I decided to go for door number two. And I did find a tenant and they now have a 2 year lease with options up to 8 years and also an option to buy the unit. And they have renovated the unit at their expense. [1]

Does this mean I am right? Well in this case I was right. I took a chance when the safer bet might have been to take the 1 year lease where occupancy was only for 5 months. This type of thing happens frequently it's never like the case studies and so on.

[1] And in the true spirit another thing happened on this deal. I find out that I am not only paying my realtor a commission but also paying 1/2 of that to the realtor that brought the deal to him. Did I freak out? No, who cares so I paid an extra 3%. The guy who got the 3% convinced his client to go for the full ask rent so he deserves to make 3% and not 6% on this deal. (Rent % is sliding scale on years so these are not exact numbers just making it easy for the purpose of a comment..) And I cut the check right away for the commission so he got it the same week.

larrys··on Apple Is the New Pimco
"Steve Cohen at SAC was famous for overpaying on commissions "

After a real estate deal last year I bought the broker a gift and delivered it. He said "wow shouldn't I be buying you the gift?". No problem because the next time I was the person he called first when he got a fresh listing on a commercial investment property which I was able to buy at a much lower price per sf than if he had actually taken the effort to shop it around or keep the listing active. People respond amazing predictably even if they think of themselves as highly ethical. They tend to remember the people who treat them well and appreciate their efforts.

In this context a small gift (what I am describing) also isn't necessarily a bribe. It is an "advertisement" that makes the person that you are giving the gift to remember you and to call you when they have "a good deal".

It all depends on the relationship. It is often the case in business that instead of thinking solely about the costs (or commissions) that it definitely pays to be someone's good customer and allow them to make money from you.

larrys··on The state of Apple Pay adoption
Forgetting the exact cost, Apple has enough cash to give retailers an incentive and may have already done that with those that are already onboard. Note I said "incentive" not "paid for everything". This wouldn't be something that they would necessarily disclose either, for obvious reasons.
larrys··on Batteriser: a gadget that extends alkaline battery life
> The "800%" claim seems totally bogus.

Maybe "bogus" is to strong but I would say "suspect".

The "proof" in the article could be summed up as:

1) A demo to the writer which (and I'm not suggesting this is what happened) any magician could have pulled off

2) A statement from an authority source "Dr. Kiumars Parvi" "with the physics department of San Jose State University" who said "we confirmed that the Batteriser taps into 80 percent of energy that is usually thrown away"

Neither item confirms anything like 800% nor do I remember seeing any independent testing to prove that point.

larrys··on BingoCardCreator.com Sale Page
"None of this is meant to be negative about patio11."

I always find it unfortunate that it is necessary to walk on eggshells around a person in any online community for fear of some kind of retribution by other members. It doesn't really serve any learning purpose for people to hold back on comments that might be helpful just because a particular member happens to be well liked.

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