A lot of the low level stuff is outsourced to biochemistry: the physical properties of proteins, and the various self-regulating biochemical systems of an animal, can "encode" a lot of intelligence, easing up on the computational demands of the brain proper.
The reason this is a thing is that other people can bid on your product (Amazon has an entire sponsored product category for this reason). So the reason for Seth Godin to bid on ads for "Seth Godin The Knot" is to try to crowd out other people bidding on the same term (eg another book on the same topic). Can be smart but you don't have to play this game if you don't want to, and the ACOS will tell you if it's worth playing. Even if you don't bid on those ads your own product will be the first result. It's just whether you want to bid up the price for competitors -- if you don't bid on your own product someone else can come in and buy the ad spots cheaply.
Crazy how a smart person like this fails to understand the gumbel softmax technique. It does not affect writing quality at all, provably. The very fact that there is generally no "best next token" with 100% certainty is precisely why the trick works (you cannot watermark a response to "respond with the To be or not to be soliloquy from the first folio Hamlet", for precisely this reason).
The default is set for the marginal new user, which at this point is probably not someone like you (who benefits a lot from manual mode) -- it's someone who's more "code-naive" and might get anxious about approving random bash script commands they don't recognize. Safely getting the user from prompt --> first vibe-coded app is the "user journey" now, and since auto mode seems pretty good at not letting Claude rm -rf'ing the home directory, this is 100% the right business move. For people who know what they're doing (like you), manual mode is just a shift-tab away
Surely the two leading candidates must be (a) the model is just not that good, or (b) it is misaligned in a pretty obvious way that can't be swept under the rug.
They already quietly agreed to "all lawful use" with the Pentagon, to no real fanfare. Gemini Slaughterbot Edition, coming soon to a DHS facility near you?
I don't think so. I've used Claude to generate 3D animations in python purely by making and manipulating raw meshes, and I've had great results. A more likely explanation is that 3D graphics is just pretty straightforward matrix algebra, and models (or Claude specifically) has that down cold.
Why not? Slowing down / halting biological weapons research mostly worked. Yes there have probably been modest sized defections here and there, but the pace of bioweapon development is a crawl compared with (a) what is possible with science already, and also with (b) the pace of bioweapons development from 1910 to 1970.
Indeed, I suspect the failure rate of, say, new jet engine designs is rather high as well -- those failures just never get reported in a federal repository, unlike RCTs, since they never make it out of the simulator or the prototyping lab. And we have, comparatively, much better computational models of how airplanes fly than how cancer cells mutate. FWIW this clinical stat is far better than Edison's supposed lightbulb-idea failure rate!
I'm actually surprised it isn't going up over time. That is naively what you would expect as the low-hanging fruit is plucked. So the fact that it's been stable is probably a sign that scientific advances are roughly keeping pace with the (presumably) increasing challenge of finding ever more targets for drugs.
Indeed, the B2B / no-data-retention market is still going to provide plenty of business for American companies even if every hobbyist uses open-weight models.
(1) What does it score on the private test set?
(2) Does this approach generalize to, e.g., Atari or NES games, or is it just hard-coding priors about the games into the model (as Chollet specifically warned was a chronic problem in benchmarks in the original Arc-AGI paper)
This is missing the most important thing which is why HRs are so damn useful. It's because (a) survival analysis is very statistically powerful, but (b) many survival curves do not follow a very well-described parametric function. The genius of David Cox was in realizing that, when proportional hazards hold, you can just cancel out the unknown survival function and get the multiplicative hazard ratio immediately, in a statistically powerful and statistically efficient manner. Extremely useful if you are, say, trialing a novel chemotherapy drug and want to end your trial ASAP to get everyone on the intervention arm if the drug actually works.
The places where proportional hazards gets squirrely (very long observation times, crossing curves) are a small fraction of the use cases of survival analysis, and dunking on them for "not being Bayesian" or whatever misses this broader context.
I think the "secret sauce" is not juicing the benchmarks. Claude models just feel like they are better than the benchmarks suggest, in terms of smarts and creativity, while models from every other company feel worse relative to what you'd think from the benchmarks. Only company to really internalize Goodhart's Law, IMO.
I'll take the opposite side of that bet. My prediction is that Fable 5 Re-Release will have safety classifiers that flag much more often on mundane front-end and back-end coding tasks.
I sense a business opportunity: a web app that de-sloppifies real estate, airbnb, and vrbo photos! See what it really looks like, thanks to the power of AI!
Yes, you really need "dollars per amount of RAM you need for standard computing tasks." Windows 11 requires a bare minimum of 4 GB of RAM, Window 10 only needed 1 GB.