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That was dario amodei as well, when he was still at openai. He is the primary "create hype by claiming you're dangerous"-guy.

The user names all describe conlangs[0]. Though I'd suggest nz to join as well, considering only a true conlang-connisseur would actually notice.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constructed_language

He was right about the cost changes, which he predicted quite some time ago. People shouted at him that he was making it all up - yet it was correct.

He was also right about AI-video and sora in particular being a fundamentally flawed idea.

He was also right about the dangers and problems with the general inaccuracy of LLMs and people relying on it.

Also about the expected triggering of ROI-checking in companies, such as Uber is doing now. His prediction is, ROI is negative. And I'm awaiting the society's consensus on that.

The general direction seems correct to me. He's not a technical guy and does not have the knowledge to critique models on a factual basis. I do wish he'd just focus on the stuff he _does_ know about, which is the financial side of things.

He is a much needed counterweight to the unhealthy hype going around, imho.

The PR-thing was always openly communicated by him and is not some secret or gotcha. It's essentially "fleecing the boosters", which I fully approve of and do similarly myself.

I'll gladly tell my customers all the most glorious stuff about AI and big tech while spending a significant chunk of the money they pay me on supporting AI-/tech-counterculture, such as doctorow, zitron and quite a few other writers, journalists and activists.

It's the old "you live in a society" counter-point against anti-capitalist activism. Needing to make ends meet does not imply that your points or principles are meaningless, it just implies that you have no interest in being homeless and that way losing your chance to actually change things.

So that's fine to me. But: I stated it for a reason, because I know others don't agree. I, personally, consider him trustworthy. You do not, and that's fine. I suspect we both await anthropic's Z.1, which will be able to settle a big chunk of the debate.

If he is right, the numbers will show it.

We know that inference cost is very significant, as he shows for example in this piece.

https://www.wheresyoured.at/oai_docs/

However, it needs to be said that he received those numbers. I personally have quite a few issues with him, but there's no reason to doubt his journalistic integrity. Because of that, I believe he reports truthfully on data he receives by informants.

Additionally, none of the frontier models actually publicly talks about inference costs in anything but broad, "let's just forget that"-like takes. Which does not exactly spark confidence.

I'm eagerly awaiting anthropic's public disclosure of their financial details. That should be rather interesting in any case and finally put the inference-discussion to rest.

The maintainer of curl - who has access to mythos - disagrees [0].

I think it's dangerous to rely on claims made by people who financially profit from you believing them without checking.

[0]: https://daniel.haxx.se/blog/2026/05/11/mythos-finds-a-curl-v...

The problem here is looking at a substance in isolation, instead of comparatively.

The actual question is: would drinking that stuff with sugar have caused more damage to health? And the answer will likely be yes. Because we _know_ just how bad sugar is for you. Particularly diabetes, microbiome changes, addictive behavior, obesity of course, cardiovascular issues...

If you'd look at sugar in isolation, as a new substance that stuff would never be allowed in any country at all.

Not technically but practically. The decrees are effectively considered law by the executive. Yes, you'll likely win in court later on, but you'll lose your job, get sent to prison, have your bank accounts and vehicle seized, etc., in the meantime.

Legality isn't really of much practical concern anymore. It's about what gets/can be enforced immediately.

The thing is that the IPOs necessitate a full release of their actual costs for inference and training. This by itself should be enough to pop the bubble, if the occasional bits of it we get are anything to go by.

There is a reason anthropic is still hiding those details:

> key details typically included in that form about a company’s operations — like potential risks to its business, executive compensation, and other financials — won’t become public until later on in the process

Source: https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/941016/a...

We'll see, maybe they trigger some new rule change to be allowed to keep it hidden. Wouldn't be surprised about that at all.

This is conjecture. There is a reason both openai and anthropic refuse to comment on inference costs. If it were falling so much, they would use it to brag. I really don't understand why so many people keep repeating it without any actual data for the frontier models.

Apart from that, I'm not sure if focusing on tokens is even a good idea, because they are so different from model to model. I'd almost consider them a red herring now.

We could look at tasks instead. Is there anything even remotely suggesting that your typical task you give an LLM now costs less in inference than before?

This is not about america. Not everything has to be turned into a discussion about some US internal issue.

The medium author has this in their bio: "healing, self-improvement, meditation, manifestation". Well, does not seem like the best source to me.

Aside from that, next you're probably going to post the protocols? Because that's where this line of thinking usually seems to take people. It's really nonsensical to focus on individual people, it's much more important to talk about systems and incentives. And, especially, compare to how it works in other countries.

Did they get to a similar place without person x? Then person x is probably not the primary issue here, but rather something on the system level.

Just like how the story of epstein is not the story of one evil person, it's the story of a part of society which deliberately enabled him and a system with no real safeguards in place.

Generally, with the regular in-IDE agents you have the ability to easily intervene, correct and live-check. Considering the high fail rate of agents (depending on software complexity of course), that's required if you want to get anything done and not be slowed down by it.

Otherwise you'd always have to context switch, consider which git state it's actually working from, etc. - rather than just letting the code directly before you change in your IDE.

It's significantly lower cognitive load and has a higher success rate, in my experience.

But, of course: Highly depends on the software being written and the general code infrastructure.

Problem here being that those terms aren't used as defined in regular discourse. Language changes and casual use differs from academic use.

When on an american-centric board anybody writes about "communism", I assume they refer to anything from marxism to stalinism to socialism to democratic socialism to social democracy up to anything non-hyper-capitalist. Not great, but sadly something to be taken into consideration.

Especially when looked at in context - parent was criticizing the EU initiative by essentially claiming something like that leads to a kind of monoculture like in a planned economy reminiscent of "communism", here probably meaning stalinism, from what I assume is a radical libertarian position. Which tells me the person is likely american, implying a rather ... minimal awareness of the nuance here.

Please, look at the actual comment chain and it should be rather trivial to make out what everybody is talking about. Does your comment really add value here?

There is no reason such a state would have to set things up this way.

As an example: you probably know that germany has socialized healthcare. It is, however, not implemented as a single-payer model. Instead there are tons of different insurances competing with each other, while having a highly regulated floor of what they MUST offer.

Is the model perfect? Hell no, it has tons of issues - though overall it's pretty solid. My point is just that social policies and "no internal competition ever" does absolutely not have to go hand in hand. There is a massive middle ground.

See: social democracy as a concept and in its current implementation.

>But inference costs are dropping dramatically over time,

Please prove this statement, so far there is no indication that this is actually true - the opposite seems to be the case. Here are some actual numbers [0] (and whether you like Ed or not, his sources have so far always been extremely reliable.)

There is a reason the AI companies don't ever talk about their inference costs. They boast with everything they can find, but inference... not.

[0]: https://www.wheresyoured.at/oai_docs/

"It can't be that stupid, you must be prompting it wrong!"

Sigh.

Copyparty. Found that recently and absolutely love it.

Recently people built a super-lightweigt alternative, named copyparty[0]. To me that looks like it does everything people tend to need without all the bloat.

[0]: https://github.com/9001/copyparty

This comment is always so strange to me - do you really, seriously believe that the people setting up the grids never thought about dunkelflaute? And I don't mean that in an attacking way, I'm genuinely curious about your thoughts there.

Like, yes, we're aware. At least in the german south we have the opposite problem right now. We are getting negative electricity prices (you get paid for taking some) more often because we have more electricity than we can use due to solar, at least during the day. Proper power storage is being built at this very moment all over the country.

Aside from dunkelflaute, the wind is statistically stronger when solar power generation is low, so at night and when it's super cloudy. And dunkelflaute is a couple days to weeks per year. (german perspective, don't know enough about the other countries' grids)

Regarding that problem in portugal, you misunderstood something there. The big 2025 power outage wasn't caused by clouds, it was an combination of localized blackouts and a sudden power _surge_ which caused a cascading failure which couldn't be stabilized by the conventional power plants even though on paper they had the capacity. How did you get the idea it had anything to do with "cloudy" weather?

And don‘t forget those … ”accusations“ from his sibling. The lawsuit is going to bring some details to the light, hopefully.

Relevant reading: "Replication of Quantum Factorisation Records with an 8-bit Home Computer, an Abacus, and a Dog" by Peter Gutmann and Stephan Neuhaus [0].

Shows in a humorous way how the vast majority of quantum computing "records" are utter nonsense based on simplifying the factorization so far, that it turns into a problem on the difficulty level of "factorize 9" - _before_ running the experiment.

Journalists however tend to lack the knowledge to accurately represent that, resulting in nonsensical record claims.

[0]: https://eprint.iacr.org/2025/1237.pdf

Because "confidence" isn't just something a conscious being can have, it is also something text can simply convey, irrespective of the author. It's just how we perceive language and about what we feel, not about what the author intends.

Some places are significantly worse than all others in the same wealth class though.

Somebody further up quoted such insane numbers - $750 for a proper periodontal cleaning? That's usually ~50 to 80€ in Germany. For a _full_ self payer.

Those prices and the health system creating them are utter insanity.

Why not just use fish at that point? It's been rewritten in Rust too.

To me personally, oh-my-zsh and similar projects feel like a worse version of the stuff fish brings by default.

Interesting, can this directly be used to make money? Maybe by the employee reading your report?

Edit: Maybe send a report to steve from grc, he loves those kinds of stories.

You previously posted this:

>Hey, have you tried TwitterCut yet? It’s this cool tool I found that turns your tweets into awesome videos in just one click. Super easy to use—just @cutcutai in a Twitter thread, and it creates the videos directly for you.

Are those tools affiliated or are you affiliated with either?

Thanks for being willing to consider my standpoint.

Personally, I think this might more be an issue of the US health system or the lack thereof, which generally messes up incentives badly.

Here in germany, finances aren't even a thing that comes to mind at all in regards to therapy. Though we do have the problem that there aren't enough therapists available. They are having tons of patients no matter how long they keep an individual, since there is so much more demand. As a result, they have to triage a lot and preferrably keep those who actually need their help.

As far as I can tell, it's all about suffering. If something makes you or the people around you suffer and create serious issues for you, you need to learn to get yourself out of that. That's what therapists do.

Please don't confuse evidence-based therapy like CBT with evidently badly working acts of pseudo-psychology such as psychoanalysis (Which, interestingly enough, isn't even much of a thing in most of the world, just the US seems to have continously kept it as accepted form of therapy despite all evidence to the contrary).

CBT in particular is about learning to cope and fixing problem-inducing behaviours and thought patterns. Not about talking about the deepest pieces of problems, since that doesn't aid healing. Often, it does quite the opposite.

Trauma only appearing in super-deep going therapy sessions can often be False Memory Syndrome, which is an entirely different can of worms and extremely problematic. If you search really really deeply, you're going to find it, wether it exists or not.

Generally: While suppressed memory of trauma exists, the vast majority of people are aware of trauma and there is no evidence suggesting otherwise. And there is clear evidence that lots of mentally well people get addicted as well, so just claiming "it's always some underlying condition" is probably not a great idea. It can, often even, be, sure. But that doesn't make it mandatory and especially doesn't allow the "I struggle with addiction, so there _must_ have been a problem beforehand" conclusion.

So honestly, I'd just not search any deeper to not risk inducing any false memories.

Because for now, that's just what those financially profiting from the AI-hype tell us. Be it sama, hyung or nadella, they all profit if people _believe_ AI is a force multiplier for everybody. Reality is much more muddy though and it's absolutely not as obvious as those people claim.

And keep in mind that a 5-10x price hike is to be expected if those companies keep spending billions to make millions.

Right now, there is a consistent stream of papers incoming which indicates that AI might be much more of a specialized tool for very particular situations instead of the "solve everything"-tool the hype makes people believe. This is highly significant.

"Just believe me bro" is just not enough.