293 karma · joined January 18, 2023
On the flipside, far from figuring out GPU efficiency, most people with huge jobs are network bottlenecked. And that’s where the problem arises: solutions for collective comms optimization tend to explode in complexity because, among other reasons, you now have to package entire orchestrators in your library somehow, which may fight with the orchestrators that actually launch the job.
Doing my best to keep it concise, but Hopper is like a good case study. I want to use Megatron! Suddenly you need FP8, which means the CXX11 ABI, which means recompiling Torch along with all those nifty toys like flash attention, flashinfer, vllm, whatever. Ray, jsonschema, Kafka and a dozen other things also need to match the same glibc and glibc++ versions. So using that as an example, suddenly my company needs C++ CICD pipelines, dependency management etc when we didn’t before. And I just spent three commas on these GPUs. And most likely, I haven’t made a dime on my LLMs, or autonomous vehicles, or weird cyborg slavebots.
So what all that boils down to is just that there’s a ton of inertia against moving to something new and better. And in this field in particular, it’s a very ugly, half-assed, messy inertia. It’s one thing to replace well-designed, well-maintained Java infra with Golang or something, but it’s quite another to try to replace some pile of shit deep learning library that your customers had to build a pile of shit on top of just to make it work, and all the while fifty college kids are working 16 hours a day to add even more in the next dev release, which will of course be wholly backwards and forwards incompatible.
But I really hope I’m wrong :)
I say the ship sailed in 2012 because that was around when it was decided to build Tensorflow around legacy data infrastructure at Google rather than developing something new, and the rest of the industry was hamstrung by that decision (along with the baffling declarative syntax of Tensorflow, and the requirement to use Blaze to build it precluding meaningful development outside of Google).
The industry was so desperate to get away from it that they collectively decided that downloading a single giant library with every model definition under the sun baked into it was the de facto solution to loading Torch models for serving, and today I would bet you that easily 90% of deep learning models in production revolve around either TensorRT, or a model being plucked from Huggingface’s giant library.
The decision to halfass machine learning was made a long time ago. A tool like Mojo might work at a place like Apple that works in a vacuum (and is lightyears behind the curve in ML as a result), but it just doesn’t work on Earth.
If there’s anyone that can do it, it’s Lattner, but I don’t think it can be done, because there’s no appetite for it nor is the talent out there. It’s enough of a struggle to get big boy ML engineers at Mag 7 companies to even use Python instead of letting Copilot write them a 500 line bash script. The quality of slop in libraries like sglang and verl is a testament to the futility of trying to reintroduce high quality software back into deep learning.
This is not to be confused with the infrared light that’s relatively easy to detect, which isn’t leaving the black hole but is just light emitted from matter heating up due to tidal forces near the black hole.
I don’t think humanity is ever really going to know what a black hole actually is, simply because they’re too far away and the energy levels required for experiments are many many orders of magnitude beyond what we can generate on Earth. But I do expect if we could get up close and study one, we’d simply discover a lot of fascinating new physics over top of some kind of matter not that far off from neutron stars.
A lot of people don’t really get past the pop science articles about “singularities” to realize that those are just failures of our theories. We don’t know how anything behaves when gravity is strong enough to affect the quantum level, because QM has some kind of silly techniques for avoiding it under normal circumstances (called renormalization) that no longer work.
At extremely high energy levels, my guess as a guy on the internet is that the universe looks less like magical portals to Matthew McConaughey’s bookshelf, but more like regular boring space crap that destroys our notions of stuff like time, matter, energy, causality etc. And in fairness, neutron stars already kind of do this, but nobody cares for some reason.
Lol… where does that leave the rest of us in comparison
Polymarket is hardly an efficient market. They also show Republicans winning both the presidency and popular vote as about as likely as them winning just the presidency, despite virtually everyone giving Democrats 70/30 odds of winning the popular vote (as usual). https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-presidency-pop...