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lsiq

160 karma · joined February 4, 2013

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lsiq··on I Am Not Satoshi Nakamoto
Amazing you actually believe that. Have you considered what doesn't make it to the news, and also what gets explicitly omitted from the news?

Do you even know that FATF is the main organization that goes around imposing KYC/AML?

And they are a non-governmental body, no oversight - don't answer to anybody.

They are literally Luca Brasi and you don't even know who the Don Corleones behind the curtain are.

lsiq··on I Am Not Satoshi Nakamoto
The likes of Paypal locks your funds without explanation or appeal.

And the likes of HSBC launder money with impunity. (BUT BUT KYC/AML!)

But hey, let's continue trusting self interested people who don't care about you to "do the right thing" and protect your funds.

lsiq··on The only skin care that works? science video response (2020)
Trust me on the sunscreen.
lsiq··on That $56,000 Drug? Blame Medicare
This headline is exhibit A of how the NYT is our Pravda, the propaganda arm for the .0001%.
lsiq··on Beware state surveillance of your lives – governments can change for the worse
Engineers should build software to create a future more transparent government instead.
lsiq··on Why printers add secret tracking dots (2020)
Yeah that was 10 years ago. I'm on Linux now.
lsiq··on Why printers add secret tracking dots (2020)
I stopped buying HP printers a decade ago when I found tons of HP spyware when doing some system cleaning.
lsiq··on U.S. senators target tech's legal immunity to stop vaccine misinformation
As Naval wisely said when Trump was cancelled, "if you can silence a king, you are the king."

FAAMG is the government and the internet. Just a matter of time until it becomes official.

lsiq··on $100M xPrize for Carbon Removal
We can, how many have you planted?

The problem is the space issue and that it takes a decade or two for there to be meaningful carbon uptake.

Most land is private so you can't go around planting willy nilly. What's worse is that you are technically not allowed to plant on most public land either, although for small amounts of native species, you can sneak by.

lsiq··on Why Silicon Valley Billionaires Are Prepping for the Apocalypse in NZ (2018)
Is it actually so unlikely considering the sheer number of ways it could happen? We live in a society where it's obvious that one event, one invention, and one person can have an outsize effect on all the rest. Thankfully, these end up usually being positive changes, but not always.

If you asked folks in 1920 how likely it would be that in less than 20 years there would be another awful World War and millions of civilians would be systematically slaughtered and turned into ashes, they probably would have said that is "very unlikely" too.

These people are educated, understand tail risks and have the means to try and hedge them. They are not insane, not even close.

lsiq··on What men eat and drink may affect their babies’ health
Indeed, but there's unlikely to be many 11 year olds reading this thread.
lsiq··on What men eat and drink may affect their babies’ health
Article very soft and studies as well. The bottom line is this:

Epigenetics is a thing and you need to be aware of it. And if you intend to conceive, you are doing your kid a disservice by not being in peak physical condition when you do so.

lsiq··on Why I Don't Think Craig Wright is Satoshi
Well, for one reason, if Satoshi is alive; he can easily crash the entire bitcoin market if his wallets start selling currency.

If he's dead, (which is the case if he's Finney), then that is a not a risk.

If he is alive, then the likelyhood of him cashing out at some point is pretty high. He may be only be waiting for the moment when there is enough liquidity in the market for him to dump it all at once - and we're probably not quite there yet, he's said to have just under 1M BTC.

lsiq··on The Pay Gap Is Way Too Entrenched to Be Solved by Women Alone (2018)
"What’s more, when women become more represented in a job, the pay for that job tends to go down."

This is what is most fundamental about what happened to the labor force, it's supply and demand at work. More people willing to do a job with a similar number of openings. Pre-WWII the (formal) labor force was overwhelmingly composed of men, and that proportion has gradually shrunk in the past century to now where there are some professions that are overwhelming done by women.

The reason Aerospace Engineers get paid pretty well is not because 91% of them are men and women cannot enter the profession, but rather because few women entering the labor force are training for and choosing to enter that field. This nearly halves the labor supply, which has kept wages higher.

This works for the lower end of the labor market as well, garbage men are mostly men and get paid pretty well.

lsiq··on Where Warren’s Wrong
I love how people love saying Amazon doesn't have a monopoly in retail when that massive category includes the sale of all consumer (and some producer) goods.

Amazon has 70%+ market share in many sectors of retail, such as books. But because it's only a fraction of their business, it seems like nothing.

lsiq··on Ask HN: Delivery guy is a chemist with 2 teenage kids. Can this happen to me?
Intelligence is wonderful but it alone does not make one well-off.

The short answer is that you get rich by leading, not by following. So unless that intelligence comes with a disposition to build a business or at least lead others then you don't get rich. Going with the flow and getting a delivery job like everyone else keeps people poor.

lsiq··on An Optometrist Billionaire Investor
It may be a good bet, it may not be. Hedge funds now buy up stocks before they get indexed.

Stocks will still beat cash in the long run but the main thing is to be ahead of the curve.

lsiq··on U.S. National Debt Soars to a Record $22T
It's simple accounting, as interest payments on the debt become an increasingly higher part of the budget, the end result becomes insolvency.

Of course, an actual default for a country like the U.S. is a very unlikely outcome for a variety of reasons. What is more likely, is that inflation is allowed to rise and 'eat' up the debt. The "hope" is that a mild rate of inflation is sufficient to do so. I doubt it though, there have always been periods of high inflation, and there is no reason to think they will not return.

lsiq··on Top-Performing College Grads Fall into the ‘Prestige Career’ Trap
The article really puts an emphasis on recruitment and, as someone who went to a top 5 school and went into business for myself instead of joining the pack, it's not about that at all but rather about social conditioning and money.

These firms pay the best for your run of the mill pre-professional undergrad, it's really that simple. Unless you have a CS degree, the other primary high-paying careers require continuing education (M.D.s, etc).

We live in world where there are three basic economic classes; wealth, wealth management, and the proletariat. It's no surprise that the bulk of top school grads get herded into jobs that serve firms and the wealthy.

lsiq··on How to edit a human
Don't be hyperbolic, the process is obviously gradual. I'm sure there are a couple dozen scientists who could give you a probabilistic answer to your 2nd question though.
lsiq··on How to edit a human
“The dystopic view would be IVF clinics that offer parents a menu of options for kids,” she says. “Nobody has kids by sex anymore. You go to a clinic, pick from a menu, say, ‘I want my kid to be this tall, have this colour of eye, this level of IQ,’ and all those sorts of things. I think that would be terrible.” - Doudna

It may be unpalatable to our sensibilities now, but this is actually the most likely scenario for how our species as we now know it will cease to exist. I have no doubt that we will upgrade ourselves into other species. There will be conflict over it, but attempting to ban this will never work. The technology exists NOW, how much longer do you think it will take for the will to be there? I'd give it less than 10 years for the first baby, and 5 generations to have a genetically divided society.

lsiq··on The world is losing the war against climate change
I can only speak to some of your questions.

2. Well the current temperature is somewhat sustainable because we haven't yet destroyed the Earth.. but that's not really what it's about. The condition of the Earth is not the present temperature, but the present condition of the atmosphere which is becoming increasingly filled with these gases; higher temperatures are merely the consequence. The higher temperatures themselves don't contribute much to a snowballing effect, except in the case of wildfires. If tomorrow, we magically stopped emitting a net positive amount of greenhouse gases, the Earth would stabilize and return to a previous cooler state because of carbon absorption from forests and so on, but this is impossible because it would require a commitment from 7 billion people.

3. The are plenty of ways to extract gases directly but many are fairly costly and only a few hold promise of being economically profitable. Extraction of the CO2 (and other gases like methane) would certainly lower temperatures, as they trap the heat in the atmosphere that would otherwise radiate back into space. The most clear empirical evidence we have of this on a planetary scale is Venus, which has a truly hellish climate because of it's C02 atmosphere.

5. This can't be a serious question. But, actually, there is the idea of iron fertilization of the ocean where dumping granulated iron into presently lifeless tracts of would cause massive blooms in ocean life and would have a substantial carbon capturing effect. It's likely to be a very cheap solution, relative to the outsize effect it would have.

6. Biggest benefit to warming is an increase in arable land as the climate is warmer towards the poles, which should more than make up for some losses to desertification. The other benefit is increased crop yields due to more CO2 in the air. Not much of a consolation tbh.

lsiq··on Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power
Considering the two sticks of Micron RAM I purchased in mid 2016 have appreciated 2-3x value, I don't have much sympathy for the big three DRAM producers. There's a reason the Chinese are looking so longingly at their lunch.
lsiq··on The mathematics of Magic: the Gathering (1999)
I would look into Hex: Shards of Fate, you can play in your underwear at home and so it doesn't require as big of a time investment. Unlike Magic Online, it actually has a great client that doesn't look like it's from the 90s and unlike MTG Arena, it's not overly Hearthstoneized and retains the TCG over the CCG model.

It's very, very similar to MTG in terms of mechanics and skill cap, and it is not bound by a paper-compatible limit on mechanics. It's all I play these days.

lsiq··on Prediction of the FIFA World Cup 2018 – A random forest approach
(1) At a high level, yes, they look at it. There is a very strong relation between winning and team pay in soccer. There is a reason why Real Madrid has won 4 out of the last 5 champions leagues. Similarly, PSG and Munich are by some distance the best paid teams in their leagues and win their respective leagues pretty much every year. This market today is quite efficient, sure there are always going to be some undervalued middling players here and there, but the very best players do not go unnoticed and so they are paid well and bought by the richest teams.

(2) the discussion is naturally about how much they earn for their clubs presently. National teams pay no salary and many top players do not, and in some cases, have never played in their birth country's own league.

lsiq··on Sequoia Capital China Said To Invest In Bitmain's $400M Round At $12B Valuation
Except it is well known that Bitmain mines with its shovels before selling them. People have reported receiving their machines with dust in them and you can see the changes in mining difficulty corresponding to when they in-house mine and then ship the ASICS out.

Anyway, Bitmain better watch out. Cryptocurrencies are now regularly implementing hash function changes. GPU mining is dying, but not to ASICs but to the more configurable FPGAs instead.

It is not the strongest that survive, but the ones most responsive to change.

lsiq··on Intel 28-core fantasy vs. AMD 32-core reality
They spent such a long time making the "best" that now they get to ride that goodwill for a while with consumers, regardless of where they are presently with respect to competition. Toyota and Honda enjoy the same luxury, they outsell the competition today more because of what they did in 90s than what they did in 2016-17.
lsiq··on Weibo to ban gay, violent content from platform
Don't overthink it, this is China. There is no protection of free speech, quite the contrary, a lot worse is done on a daily basis by that government than yet another form of social media censorship.
lsiq··on E.P.A. Prepares to Roll Back Rules Requiring Cars Be Cleaner and More Efficient
Toilet design varies globally, and this is not necessarily due to some function-focused reasons of the designers.

You might find this short video entertaining (Zizek on toilets): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzXPyCY7jbs

lsiq··on The frenetic race to build Detroit's Amazon HQ2 bid
Quite the contrary, they probably have a very good understanding and are happy to take losing wagers on San Jose and the public is willing to oblige.
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