The books can be wrong, and the betting markets aren't perfect but they can be useful tool to gather what the rough consensus is at any given time.
160 karma · joined February 4, 2013
The books can be wrong, and the betting markets aren't perfect but they can be useful tool to gather what the rough consensus is at any given time.
Notably, the exclusivity-kickback agreements they arranged with several PC manufacturers. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/business/intel-eu-antitru...
As well as making their compiler choose the slowest execution path possible once it identifies it's running on an AMD/non-Intel CPU. http://www.agner.org/optimize/blog/read.php?i=49#49
However, you are right to bring up autonomous cars. I always thought it amusing that Kalanick et al were so anxious to bet the house on autonomous cars, when in fact, they are the company's greatest existential threat long-term. Once those cars are readily available and street-legal, there's nothing stopping Enterprise or Avis or the automakers themselves from becoming overnight competitors.
And once drivers are taken out of the picture, ride prices will plummet. Margins will also thin because of the likely extreme competitiveness of this market. I would not want to be an Uber investor that's for sure. In theory, the "winner" will be whoever scales the most (i.e. has the most capital to put into their fleet) and has the most effective marketing. In practice, prices may be close enough that people will rent car X because they like brand/model Y better.
If I were on Uber's board, I would advise against trying to win that war which they will lose once/if the automakers get in on it, and instead get creative about how to conquer the market in a more niche way.
Someone is going to have to program self-driving ambulances :)
In what circumstances do we want to have monopolies doled out, even timed ones? Even in the classic image of the sole inventor who does something shrewd but ends up with nothing because he didn't patent it; is it really the best outcome to have this one person get rich while lives are lost and technological progress of society slowed because the monopoly pricing imposed is prohibitive for all but the wealthy?
The best scenario for a patent is as a subsidy for inventions that could not or would not exist without very substantial capital investment. Software methods by and large do not fall in that category.
Take the train example that he mentioned. He is effectively suggesting that higher margin 2nd class tickets subsidize 3rd class tickets. Companies may be afraid to improve 3rd class, thinking it would eat into their 2nd class and lower profits. But they would very likely just sell more tickets, as their 3rd class was now the best in the business. And provided there were an actual differentiated service in 2nd class, those tickets would still sell. And if the was no difference, they could eliminate 3rd class altogether and sell second class only for greater volume and slightly lower price (or make 2nd class improvements).
Cannibalization is no problemo for business. Some folks at Apple were afraid the iphone would cannibalize ipod sales. Imagine if they actually went with that thinking and sold iphones that didn't play music. And iPods still sell to this day.
Unless the sector has high barrier to entry (e.g. Intel), such practices are very often short sighted. You don't see IBM selling printers anymore.
I do think wages are really very much a bottom up thing in that people can collectively raise their wages by simply not accepting lower pay. Putting a (reasonably) high price on your head is not only good for you but for others like you in the labor market. Firms are not really in a great position to keep wages down, the best they can do is make sure nobody knows what anyone else makes.
Sure the ground floor could get packed but the amount of dBs/person was higher in the A-level, so it would it be louder if it was actually packed as well. This likely also because the A-level has the cubicles in the back that were set up precisely for group work.
In any case, it is misleading for the article to say that converting the A-level to a more collaborative environment is taking away from introverts'. Especially since the A-level is one of the louder rooms in one of the louder libraries.