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maire

967 karma · joined March 27, 2018

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maire··on VisualAge for Java 1.0 – Let the Future Begin (1997)
Erich Gamma worked for Object Technology when VisualAge was being developed so using XP/Agile before the XP book does not surprise me.

I worked with Erich before Visual Age when he developed the Presentation Framework. He came up with a process identical to XP. When XP came out I realized that Erich and Kent Beck were friends.

Erich is so prolific that he doesn't remember everything he invented. He is also generous.

maire··on Openstreetmap’s product fails to compete with Google Maps
The driveway was put in by my father - so no it is not a roadway.

I think there was wishful thinking since many of the OSM maintainers are mountain bikers and the Santa Cruz mountains has some desirable mountain biking paths. The back part of our property is on The Soquel Demonstration Forest which has an awesome mountain biking path.

They were pretty good about fixing the issue when I pointed it out.

maire··on Openstreetmap’s product fails to compete with Google Maps
> What App are you using.

I used the OSM web page.

Just type in the address with zip code, and it takes you to a completely different different zip code. This is a relatively new bug.

I find it interesting that I am down voted by 4 points. The OSM fans must not understand the value of user testing. Maybe it is the google fans who don't understand user testing.

maire··on Openstreetmap’s product fails to compete with Google Maps
I use only 1 metric to compare maps - are they accurate giving directions to my address?

Google Maps used to be great - far better than Map Quest. Waze was pretty bad. Apple was initially bad. Open Street Maps was pretty good except they thought my driveway was a road.

In the past year Google got pretty bad. Apple became awesome. About a year ago Open Street Maps improved.

Then this morning I checked Open Street Maps and it now has the exact same bug that has irritated me with Google!

I suspect there is some bad code sharing between OSM and Google.

Details - if your physical address is in a different county than your postal office it confuses the heck out of Google. OSM used to handle this just fine, but not now.

Accuracy counts more than anything else!

maire··on Evidence on Poverty Traps from Rural Bangladesh [pdf]
I had the same reaction - Silicon Valley is not Bangladesh. I am moving my comment below to you.

Hans Rosling (RIP) did a great job of defining poverty and visualizing the changing nature of poverty. His area of focus was on child mortality - so it tended to focus on the mothers since they have the greatest impact on this statistic. Later he focused on other areas. Sanitation, water, transportation etc.

https://www.gapminder.org/dollar-street/?countries=bd

At the Bangladesh level of poverty, a productive asset is a goat that produces milk. The Heifer Project is doing useful work in giving low income families productive assets. https://www.heifer.org/

Finally there is the whole world of micro loans. I have not looked into this as much.

maire··on Interview advice that got me offers
My apologies. Congratulations on being a successful extrovert engineer.

I am also a unicorn - but a different kind. I used to always have to defend being a statical outlier so I know where you are coming from.

maire··on Interview advice that got me offers
Most engineers are introverts and relatively humble - so interviewing is difficult. We have to remind ourselves that we are pretty good.

I always went on 2 practice interviews before the real interview and it worked.

maire··on If-then-else had to be invented
In colloquial english we usually put an "or" in front of else. It really breaks down when you put it in boolean form because the "or" implies other actions when true rather than actions if false. Removing the "or" completely is unambiguous but is antiquated English.

Examples: "Go to college or else work for your uncle"

Turn this into boolean form: "If you go to college then <foo> or else you will work for your uncle"

But the "or" makes the meaning ambiguous: "If it rains then I will work inside or else I will work outside."

It is not clear if this means you will work outside if and only if it is not raining? Maybe working outside is another option if it rains.

Otherwise is far more clear. "If it rains then I will work inside otherwise I will work outside."

Removing the "or" completely makes the statements unambiguous archaic English: "If you go to college then <foo> else you will work for your uncle" "If it rains then I will work inside else I will work outside."

FWIW - I am very glad they chose else over otherwise...

maire··on Interpretation of confidence intervals and Bayesian credible intervals
Sorry - I was being flippant because your argument involved time travel. After the fact an event has 100% probability that it did occur but before the event it does not.

The entire field of chaos theory is to make chaos deterministic so you are in good company. There is no general mechanism (yet) to do this. Quantum mechanics is the most interesting area.

The measure of determinism is that it predicts the future before it happens. People have been trying to do this for years in weather and the stock market. This is where the concept of Chaos came from.

Leaving math and physics - there is philosophy. To apply determinism to people you would have to decide there is no free will. Maybe this is true and maybe not.

maire··on Interpretation of confidence intervals and Bayesian credible intervals
> If we live in a materialist deterministic world - which many would cite as an axiom for simplicity - then there really is no probability. Everything happens with 100% certainty.

I don't know who "the many" are - but I thought determinism had already been disproved.

I am not a physicist so I will not go into quantum mechanics - but I will take a simple example from Science Fiction, and that is the Temporal Paradox. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporal_paradox

maire··on After losing my savings as an indie hacker, I can't do it anymore. I quit.
I was painfully shy and started my own business. There is a lot of value in the startup experience even if he does not stay in the startup world.

How did I do it? I had small goals each day and each week and focused on those goals rather than the outcome. It is the outcome that creates angst for the introverted.

I had my own business for 3 years. The first year was painful the 2nd 2 years were productive.

When I went back to traditional employment I had a confidence that I would not have had if I stayed on a traditional business path.

maire··on Reddit's Stock Threads Become a Must-Read on Wall Street
Yes - some periods TLT does have negative correlation to QQQ. I was pretty surprised when I saw this since Bernstein did not see this in his analysis.

As I said it had been 15 years since I have been actively managed my investments. When the stock market dropped I was surprised that our investments hadn't actually dropped so I wanted to find out why. So I put together a google sheet and tried to replicate the Intelligent Asset Allocator with just ETFs. This only goes back to 2005.

First I put in all of the ETFs with weekly data going back to 2005 from GoogleFinance. I then added in the dividend yields - which most online analysis does not do. Then I just used the google sheets correlation function. I set up the sheet so I could slice and dice across different time periods. And then I chose my own asset allocation based on what I saw.

I also looked at the optimal rebalancing period. It looks like it is 2 years for this set of data.

maire··on Reddit's Stock Threads Become a Must-Read on Wall Street
Here is my correlation between QQQ and major sector ETFs going back to 2005 when Bond ETFs were introduced.

QQQ 1 XLK 0.9952440282 VCR 0.9813656495 SPY 0.9774334512 VHT 0.9749607257 DIA 0.9738966572 XLI 0.944646275 MDY 0.9418372572 XLP 0.9340495871 XLU 0.9322048846 VBK 0.9749569179 TLT 0.8238447288 IEF 0.7459539935 LQD 0.7698459752 VNQ 0.7211819234 SHY 0.5117276512 GLD 0.4880148474 XLF 0.4715141612 EFA 0.2721585482 XLE 0.04648142997

maire··on Reddit's Stock Threads Become a Must-Read on Wall Street
My favorite book on investing is The Intelligent Asset Allocator by William Bernstein. This is what made me aware of issues in correlations.

I still believe in diversification. If an ETF is sufficiently diverse I will buy the ETF. Some ETFs are not - XLE is nearly 50% Chevron and Exxon!

You should also read Taleb if you want to understand the fallacy of unsystematic risk. He is difficult to read because of his overinflated ego but he has some persuasive ideas.

maire··on Reddit's Stock Threads Become a Must-Read on Wall Street
I actually investigated this strategy (only buy index funds) because it was highly recommended in a book my daughter read. I thought it was bogus and it turns out that it is.

I haven't been an active investor for 15 years so it took a little time to fire up my investing analysis tools. This is what I found out.

Index funds are highly incestuous. There is a high correlation across the top index funds because they largely have the same stocks. The exceptions seem to be reits, oil, foreign, and financial index funds.

The rest of the index funds all seem to be heavily weighted in big tech stock.

So - if that is true, why not buy the heavily weighted stocks directly and do your own financial analysis on them? For instance, I look at past 5 year sales growth. Then I look at yoy sales growth. Then I look at P/S over the last 5 years (to see if it is out of whack). Then I look at PEG over the last 5 years (to see if it is out of whack). Then I look at gross margins. Then I look at dividend yield. All of this data is available for free.

maire··on Ask HN: Essential skill needed to be a programmer?
Abstraction.

When my kids were little I thought I would teach them programming. The biggest problem I had was teaching them what a variable was. They finally did figure it out after a lot of work.

Abstraction is the same barrier between elementary school math and algebra. Some people never do learn algebra.

maire··on Science Fiction Stories with Good Astronomy and Physics: A Topical Index
I am surprised that Dark Forest is not on the list given they have a whole section on alien life. I now judge all first contact stories against Dark Forest.

It does have Gateway on the list which had implausible black holes - so I don't think the plausibility bar is high.

maire··on Study finds people have short-lived immunity to seasonal coronaviruses
They are hoping the immunity lasts 12 months. Then you would take a booster in your annual flu shot. I could live with that.
maire··on Minitel: The Online World France Built Before the Web (2017)
Sorry for the lack of clarity - I was thinking of Gopher.
maire··on Minitel: The Online World France Built Before the Web (2017)
I seem to be repeating myself to young whippersnappers, but the web is not the same as the internet.

Here is the early history of the internet/arpanet: http://mercury.lcs.mit.edu/~jnc/tech/arpageo.html

The internet clearly predated Minitel. The big difference is that it was not initially used for commerce. It was to link the military with universities.

I joined Xerox in 1985. Two years earlier the network we were on converted from Arpanet to Internet. There might have been some group somewhere in Xerox that was still on the Arpanet but the military were worried about security so they created the Internet. You can call the exact date of the split between arpanet and internet as being the birth of the internet.

Sometime in 1980 I was also involved in hooking up the internet to my college.

Urls also predated the web because they were used on the internet.

The web made the internet easier to use - that is true. But before then we still had email and discussion boards and distribution groups. It was all text based and somewhat ugly.

maire··on Tech firms face growing resentment of parent employees during Covid-19
I don't think resentment is a real thing. It is lack of flexibility when a company grows large enough to defer decisions to hr.

When my children were young my employers were very supportive of granting flexibility for my family responsibilities. I was also very productive and giving me flexibility was an obvious win win.

When my daughter had a young family she faced resistance because over the years hr has gained greater power and "if they give flexibility to one employee they have to give flexibility to all employees." The irony was the hr rules at her company allowed work sharing if she was in marketing but not for engineering. They waited until she quit to give her the flexibility she needed.

I think smaller companies are better able to work with employees than larger companies.

maire··on Most-favorited Hacker News posts
I disabled my Quora account when I discovered it was selling my data.
maire··on Build tools around workflows, not workflows around tools
Yep - I started building personal tools when I realized that purchased tools are to benefit someone else - not me. Their goal is to make money for them not to make me happy.

Once I realized that I automate my own processes and I am so much happier. I went so far as to purchase an annual $99 developer license even though I have no intention of selling apps.

maire··on Uber and Lyft shutdown in California averted as judge grants emergency stay
I remember when there was a crackdown on software independent contractors. What most contractors did was go through an agency that managed your services. The difference in pay was usually 20% since the agency took 20% of your pay.

I suspect this will happen ultimately with the drivers - although I can't imagine the drivers will be thrilled with a 20% cut in pay.

maire··on Apple expands independent repair program to Mac after US antitrust investigation
The goal should be self repair. I want the manuals and parts so I can make my own repair.
maire··on Stanford cancels plans to bring half of undergrads back to campus
If you work in Silicon Valley you will make friends that will pull you from company to company. All of the companies I worked for in my career (except 1) I got a call from a friend.

The one exception was they knew about me even though I didn't know about them. Halfway through one of my interviews I realized that I knew the interviewer by reputation.

maire··on Stanford cancels plans to bring half of undergrads back to campus
There are less expensive ways to get the social experience of college.

My husband and I both worked our way through college. I didn't get the social experience at school. There is nothing like working for your degree to keep you laser focused on the reason why you are going to college.

We were both reasonably paid for working class jobs as he was a machinist and I was an electronic technician. Post graduate was so much better - he in mechanical engineering and I in software engineering.

Most of our socialization came on the job. We were both lucky enough to work for great companies with wonderful people.

maire··on Raise Less Money
I was at 2 successful companies that went against the normal VC path.

Vitria was able to move the VC % lower because they were already profitable and demonstrated potential before approaching the VCs. They were only using the VCs for their contacts and not for cash.

VMware never got VC funding. I am not sure why - but they tried. They finally sold themselves to EMC and were later spun out.

maire··on Moved a server from one building to another with zero downtime
This reminds me so much of when I joined vmware in 2006. vmotion had already been around for a few years - but I believe this was the first release of vCenter with DRS.

A couple of months I joined, a room full of customers chewed us out for not publishing our vmotion compatibility tables. After 4 hours of chewing out - they then told us they reverse engineered the compatibility tables and reorganized their entire data center to conform to vmware vmotion. Then (of course) we worked with intel to make sure the compatibility matrix worked in the future.

I realized at that point that I joined the right company.

maire··on GITenberg is an open source community for publishing ebooks in the public domain
Thanks for the clarification!
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