marcinzm

> * I find it hard to trust data like this because of the immense pressure against side effects being attributed to the shots: pressure both on those impacted (for shame or disbelief or difficulty in knowing), on those doing the reporting (professional consequences, shame, disbelief), and on those in charge of administering the whole thing (monetary incentives, shame, disbelief, etc).

None of those really exist at the level where these metrics are collected, and myocarditis is a general medical condition that one would get treatment for.

I think it's hard for a lot of people deep into their beliefs to realize that the vast vast majority of the population just doesn't actually care. You get a vaccine. Done. If you then get sick for whatever reason you'll go to the hospital or not. Vaccine isn't even part of the thought process. Medical staff will treat you because that's what they do. Then it will go onto whatever metrics exist. Then later someone pulls the numbers together but they're not the ones collecting them.

There's no grand conspiracy because people don't actually care and it doesn't impact them in any way either directly or emotionally.

edit: As a movie villain once said: To you it was the most important day of your life, to them it was a Tuesday.

No it doesn't. The study was the outcome of the vaccine irrespective of what happens after you get the vaccine. Get a full covid infection? Still counted. Get no infection? Still counted.

Still lower in the end.

> Except of course it hits those who would not have had any problem with COVID in the first place: young people.

Children also get much higher myocarditis rates from COVID than without COVID.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10352818/

Given that study you'd expect over an extra 10 years somewhere around 10k excess deaths from the vaccine in the US. That's probably very generous. That's tiny versus mortality rates from COVID.

Following that logic, I suspect 90% of congress should be executed for one law or another that they voted for.

Looking at that study for Pfizer and Moderna it's a slightly increased risk of myocarditis and shoulder injury at the site of injection. That's it. All other side effects they either didn't have enough evidence for or found that the evidence explicitly rejects a causal relationship.

I think revenue or any other KPIs makes sense when it's easier to drive the KPI the "right" way versus the "wrong" way. As a business grows the low hanging fruit are used up and things start to shift to the "wrong" way being significantly easier. Moreover if the culture is about driving a KPI then, like any culture, it's very hard to shift it and no one wants to eat the political cost of trying to do so. I think executives often forget that people are clever and will game any metric if it's possible. I was at a company where there was a silent agreement across the EMs to over-level engineers. The pay was below competitors at the same level and set by HR but the promotion committees were not run by HR. Every new EM that joined was horrified at first at the competencies of their engineers, but then either learned to play the game or eventually got pushed out by their ever growing enemies.

I'm not sure if you're being serious or ironic given the recent press attention about Google Search being crap to ensure that Google Ads makes more revenue.

So, yes, they definitely can game it by focusing on short term unsustainable wins and ignoring all medium and long term negative impacts. Push the AB testing games to their limits, like running the same text 5 times with minor "improvements", so that the statistical metrics no longer apply. Dark patterns that cause long term user value to drop but drives some short term revenue. And so on. Then you get the more fun ones like stealing work from other departments without giving them credit. They eat the R&D cost and you get the revenue win. A good middle manager will even spin it so it looks like their team did the R&D as well.

That said, it all works fairly well when you've got a monopoly in the area (ie: search and ads for Google) but in those cases most everything works fairly well.

The median household income in the US is $76k ($57k post taxes). Germany is $54k ($34k post taxes). China is $13k.

Even compared to Europe the amount of money for spending a US household gets is almost twice as much. There's more expenses due to a lack of a social net however those aren't constant over time unlike taxes. One year you spend $5k for medical bills and the next you spend $5k on a new Sofa.

Here's the thing I learned, tying it to revenue gets the company more revenue, tying it to BS gets middle managers promoted faster. Why? Because money may not materialize while BS doesn't require anything except itself to be a success. And since your own promotion and bonus are strongly based on how much middle managers like you...

It's not their core business model and so far LLMs aren't very profitable. Investing a ton of money into a whole new business area with heavy competition that may be profitable eventually while not swimming in cash is often how companies die.

In my experience the overhead bins are never large enough to accommodate everyone having the allowed sized carry on luggage. Which leads to bags getting gate checked fairly often.

It still costs fuel to carry the weight and slows down the boarding/un-boarding process. Especially if overhead bins fill up and bags need to be, chaotically, checked in at the gate since then you also need more gate attendants. Some passengers don't need anything more than the personal under seat bag for their trip.

So charging for carry on bags is a logical approach if you wish to minimize the operating costs of the airline which budget airlines do.

Ah yes, the no true scotsman argument, classic.

In reality Apple products overall have very good build quality, long software support timelines and very good software-hardware integration. OSX is more user friendly than Linux and a lot less user hostile than Windows. Spending 8 hours fighting whatever idiocy Windows or Linux or Dell throws at me costs me much more than an extra $500 for an Apple laptop.

For example, my Macbooks have never woken up in a backpack at 2am and proceeded to thermally cook themselves for 6 hours to the point of the battery not working at all after 6 months. My windows laptops have.

Whenever an app like this is sold to some unknown company there's people who say to give the new owners a chance. This is proof of why that's inherently the wrong approach. Migrate the second you can.

> Why, then, we barely see any non-transformer production-ready LLM these days?

Because having a 5% better non-transformer model doesn't help you if as a result you can't use the 10% improvements people publish that only apply to transformers. Very quickly you'll be 5% worse than those who stuck with transformers, and have wasted a ton of time and money.

These seems very tiny models and as I understand it LLMs behave fairly differently at different scales.

The speed performance gain seems to only be on an M2 chip and I wonder if there's already much better non-GPU optimized attention approaches out there for those use cases.

Do people get access to these things without sending you money?

edit: You can request to get paid EXTRA for a good or service you provide (a tip). You cannot request to get paid (in any way) while not providing a specific good or service in return.

> They are not the founder, they are not even technical

OpenAI can't have it both ways. Either it's not a company owned by it's founders (as Sam claims) or it is. A board that does nothing ever is equivalent to the former.

It's the same as all the revolutionaries and cult leaders that turned into dictators once in power.

Those seeking a greater meaning to their lives get drawn to the sweet nectar of lies that tells them their life will have meaning as long as, and only if, they just keep following the leader's every wish.

Except this time it's not aliens following Halley's comet but AGI.

> What answer do the engineers at google working on this have for this violation of privacy?

The same answer you probably have for the millions of questions about what the things you do that some other people find offensive to their personal views and beliefs.

I don't see why this is unique to a divergent diamond as it only applies to non-light controlled points of conflict of which there are at most two in both designs...

None of those are innovations. They've existed in legit marketplaces for decades.

Etsy already does all that. Funds are held for some time. There's also a way to dispute a sale to get a refund and so on. Plus credit card charge backs if you're really pissed. Paypal basically exists because it's included htis functionality for the last 20 years so it's nothing new.

The thing is that the vast majority of buyers are perfectly happy with their drop shipped item.

That's the real difference, Darknet has very savvy buyers because the barrier to entry is fairly high and theres is little real competition. If you don't like Etsy then there's Ebay or Shopify stores or Amazon handmade or a local craft fair or just emailing a maker.

I think it's important in these situations, like many others, to not jump to a conclusion such as "legit marketplaces are idiots for not doing X" but rather "why doesn't X work for legit marketplaces but does work for non-legit ones."

That's not true.

https://help.etsy.com/hc/en-us/articles/115014483627-What-ar...

> I am not entirely sure of this claim. My own experience with artisnal craftspersons is that they will tolerate higher levels of inefficiencies precisely because they are not operating at scale, and being artisnal makes their cost of revenue really really wonky.

To make a video that a human can recognize as showing local craftwork and cannot be replicated at a workshop in China for $50 is a ton of work. Like a ton. Many of these are multi-day or multi-week projects that involve numerous steps. Do they all need to be shown? Or just snippets? How many? How do you ensure that all the snippets are in the same location? Do you need to do this for every product or every product type? If you sell 400 variants per item do you need to cover all of them (if not someone will have a $1000 variation that is hand made and a $10 one that isn't)? Do you pay money for experts to review each video? If not then how do you know it's this seller's cutting board being made and not another, almost identical to most people, cutting board?

Maybe the key difference in our viewpoints is that I very much know that drop shippers aren't stupid or without resources. Their job and "passion" is to know Etsy and it's processes. Actual craftspeoples' job and passion is to make things. The more bureaucracy you add the more the drop shippers benefit because they know how to work through the bureaucracy better than non drop shippers. It's their sole job after all.

Plus VCs don't beat the market in general. A few of their companies do and the vast majority fail. Their value used to be in being less correlated with the broader market which made them a good diversified investment.

> To be successful, they need a large consumer base, and a small seller base, who sell high quality goods (which is subjective, but mass drop shipping is certainly not what those consumers are expecting).

The only way a small seller base can support a large consumer base is if it's some form of mass manufacture. That more or less leads to drop shipping as the logical conclusion and optimization.

That's like saying people can fly by flapping their arms because birds can.

Auction houses store items for a limited period of time before liquidating them. The time in storage is fixed and the fees are fairly high. It's a fundamentally different approach to an online retailer.

An auction house that has to store items for years, charge no more than a 10% fee and only charge it if an item sold would go bankrupt.

> Your desires (and mine) will require a reorganization of society as we know it.

So far every attempt to do this has done the exact opposite.