mattmaroon

I agree with you about the greatest invention of all time part, the rest is where my crystal ball gets hazy.

Well, unlike the economy I can’t grow in size rapidly. (And if I did I’d just have another major problem.)

Induced demand and limitless cheap human-quality labor can possibly grow the pie very fast, though even then, you start running into the earth’s finite resources eventually. But it is possible that they are worth much more than $2 trillion long before that.

But that is why I said you can’t just safely assume 15x multiples to continue.

That’s a risk for sure.

That’s a good question that I assume will be cleared up in the prospectus, but I have to assume that enough of it is just cash coming in that they and OpenAI are likely the fastest growing companies of all time, or at least very high up the list.

$2 trillion is a lot of money and certainly doesn’t seem a safe bet at that price. But also, their revenue went from <$0 in 2024 to $4b in 2025 to what will likely be >15x that in 2026. Has anything ever grown that fast before?

If you carry that forward even one year, and I’m not saying you certainly can, they’re outselling NVIDIA.

I get it, there are risks, scalability issues, low cost competitors, etc. $2 trillion is a big number, but it’s tiny compared to all human payroll.

I’m not buying it either but I dont think anyone who does failed an IQ test.

Good. I hope my competitors never figure out how useful this is.

Using the banking system instead of crypto.

Forks don’t.

*illegally

I can’t read the article because of the paywall and thought that’s what it would be about.

I laugh every time, but also, Americans know their weight in lbs but nutritional panels are in metric. It’s sensible nonsense.

It’s just an illogical conspiracy theory. Open weights models still have to run on someone’s chips. NVIDIA is model-agnostic.

They are just trying to grow the pie because they have nobody else competing for slices.

My guess is they want as many frontier models using their chips as possible. The only threat to their business is companies making their own chips which Google does and the others are working toward. The last thing they want is only 3 frontier labs who are all not buying NVIDIA.

Discord is a much better app for venting than support.

Not disagreeing because I don’t know anything about this particular situation, but I think if you look at any company’s support discord, you will find that they don’t give a shit because of the sample bias. People whose problems they solved. Don’t end up there.

Well it would depend how much higher prices and for how long until competition could arrive. Any business that could sell stuff at 10x prices for 10 years would make enough extra money that it would be worth it even if they knew bankruptcy would happen in year 11.

This is a very difficult supply chain in which to compete, even nation states mostly can’t. The machines that build the chips are really hard to come by and even China is just hoping they can start to make them in 2030 and they likely cannot. Meanwhile demand is accelerating.

History does not drop financial gifts like this in one industry’s lap often. From a sheer numbers standpoint, what they’re doing absolutely is the only logical choice.

A competing model still needs a search index behind it to be a threat to Google. An open weight model doesn’t have that. The other frontier models still struggle to fulfill a lot of queries for lack of one.

What’s funny about it to me is that it now isn’t confusing because we’ve spent 20 years with it. It’s nonsense but we’ve adapted to it.

I know what not to do: accept pseudoscience.

All “A is linked to B” tells you, and science has shown this time and time again, is that enough academics believe A is linked to B to do a number of hokum studies and show you the ones that came up with any correlation at all while burying all the ones that didn’t.

The average American does not drive that much, in fact it’s an order of magnitude below that. They were making a joke or meaning weeks or something.

Tall, Grande, Venti should be the standard for everything.

You don’t if where you’re coming from has a charger. But for instance, she drives two hours away to another city and stays overnight and drives back in the morning and there isn’t a charger near her hotel there.

I drive two hours to a different city to see a hockey game, and there isn’t one by the arena, and I want to drive back two hours.

You’re charging somewhere and it’s rarely convenient in the Midwest.

Etc

Not at all. At highway speeds you can easily take a Tesla from 80 to 20 in 3 hrs. That’s 210 miles.

Yeah if I’m willing to regularly charged to 100 and drive it down to 10 I can get another hour.

Yeah but if the charger is 15 minutes out of your way, or it’s not got one open, or whatever. There’s real time other than charging in public frequently.

My live-in girlfriend has a Tesla that she has had for six years. We live in northeast Ohio, not a small population.

Each of us once a week have to drive far enough that we would public charge and the inconvenience is enough that we are getting a hybrid.

A 2 hr trip becoming a three hour trip only has to happen to you once a week for a few weeks before you realize the limitations.

“Linked to” is a keyword indicating pseudoscience. Everything is “linked to cancer”.

Yeah I’ve been commenting on here for 20 yrs just to promote some stuff later.

I think the change might be orders of magnitude more software being written rather than an order of magnitude fewer developers. There is a HUGE induced demand coming when software is so cheap to write.

I've never been a professional, but I've been coding for nearly 30 years as an amateur, and I've "written" more code in the last year than the previous 29, and it was all tooling for my very non-tech small business. It's cut HOURS out of my week, and it's all software I could not have afforded to pay developers for. But with Lovable, just describe it and iterate.

What IS going to die is software as a service. I've cancelled hundreds of dollars a month of subs and rolled my own better tooling.

They host the ads. They have some app and integrate Google’s ads in it, then click the ads with the boy network in their app.

The demand for fast, cheap, good enough models has always been borderline infinite, it’s the supply that’s going to take off.

It’s never told me that, but it does help me fix problems. For instance the other day I noticed that my state unemployment insurance rate had increased from 0.75% to 12.75%. I absolutely could have spent hours of my time scouring the website, trying to call and waiting on hold, talking around the issues with a poorly trained state agent.

Instead, I asked ChatGPT what happened. It did a dive and figured out that I was being assessed a penalty rate because I had switched to a new payroll provider that does not file wage reports in my one quarter (seasonal business) where I have no wages. Without a wage report, you are considered delinquent.

You have to love the government, it is the only place where you can be delinquent on a payment you do not owe. ChatGPT filed the correct wage report, navigated to the Support site requested a retroactive rewrite, which was granted and saved me many thousands of dollars.

Would I have done this myself eventually? Probably. But I work a lot in season. Something more important would have been neglected. It would have taken me an amount of hours that I would happily buy back for an entire year of ChatGPT business. It didn’t even hit my 5 hour usage limit to do it.

So maybe instead of asking it how it feels about you, ask it to do useful things. It’s my employee, not my girlfriend.