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md_

2,063 karma · joined June 28, 2016

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md_··on OSHA to require employers with 100 employees vaccinate or test workforce
> Why must I be vaccinated if the vaccine doesn't prevent spread?

Well, it does reduce spread, right?

That said,

> Join the feedlot if you want but I will not, I have been doing just fine as my own master, I need not the yoke of protection, certainly not from the feds.

One of the other motivations policymakers have in promoting vaccination is that in many places hospital capacity is dangerously reduced due to the influx of covid cases.

md_··on OSHA to require employers with 100 employees vaccinate or test workforce
> Edit: One thing that puzzles me though - Why is nobody talking about those that are immune or already have the antibodies and don't need a vaccine? Why force them to have it if those vaccinated are safe?

The mRNA vaccines do appear to reduce risk (of infection and of symptoms) in recovered patients as well. (See e.g. https://theconversation.com/if-ive-already-had-covid-do-i-ne...)

That said, the German "geimpft, getestet, oder genesen" strategy ("vaccinated, tested, or recovered") is explicitly what you suggest.

The tradeoff here, to me, is that:

- If we do not mandate vaccination, people can preserve their individual autonomy and will, nonetheless, probably get infected sooner or later and thus have some immunity. (According to some research, greater than that of vaccinated people against the same strain, but perhaps reduced against other strains.)

- However, that relies upon maintaining sufficient hospital capacity for the additional cases with severe symptoms. So as long as hospital capacity remains an issue, mandatory vaccinations make sense.

md_··on OSHA to require employers with 100 employees vaccinate or test workforce
Not true. Germany has the "three g" mandate (and it has faced significant pushback). France has no vaccination mandate but does have policies to encourage it, which have also faced massive protests. Both and the US have first-dose vaccination rates within ten percentage points of each other.

In all three countries, the pushback is primarily from populist/right-wing political movements. This is not a strictly American phenomenon.

md_··on [dead]
Sure. I wasn't knocking your effort--I just always think of this comment when people talk about "what it takes to be successful."

The reality is just that it's complicated and multifaceted.

md_··on [dead]
A decade and a half ago I was at Microsoft when the interns were all invited to BillG's house for their annual picnic.

At the end of the picnic Bill comes out to answer questions. Some eager young intern raises their hand and asks, "Mr. Gates: What qualities are most important to success?"

Bill laughed a little bit and said, "Well, it helps to be smart."

md_··on Allbirds S-1 IPO
OK, so serious question: what's the cool tech in Allbirds? I'm willing to buy that the wool sneakers are technologically innovative, but my gut instinct is that the S-1 is on HN because, somehow, we've all become convinced that direct-to-consumer businesses are "tech adjacent."

Like, what about that DTC toothbrush company? Or those guys who sell disposable razors? Or the online viagra salesmen whose ads are all over the MTA? Somehow, investors have become convinced these are tech companies ("democratizing access to consumer goods?") that should be valued at whacky p/e ratios, instead of yet another online commodity retailer.

md_··on Personal finance experts don’t get wealthy by following their own advice
But by definition everyone who’s rich is an outlier. :)

The question is, are more of them rich from salary, from capital ownership, or from inherited wealth?

In the US, the broad “rich”—about the top 1% by income—overwhelmingly make their income from salaries and wages (https://www.cnbc.com/2015/04/09/where-the-rich-make-their-in...). However, the ultrarich—say, the top 0.1%—tend to make it from capital and inheritance.

Assuming financial gurus are trying to give feasible advice for how to become comfortably rich, the safest bet with the highest expected value is probably something like “get an elite professional education and find a spot in the elite managerial/professional class.” I.e., banker, MBA, corporate lawyer, or (for all the HN readers) FAANG engineer.

md_··on Michael Lewis and the parable of the lucky man taking the extra cookie (2017)
For sure, but isn't this sort of an inherent definitional challenge in such research?

It's not a methodological issue. (The methodology itself, of course, has potential issues as well, e.g. as with the "luxury car" categorization.) It's foundational: can you really say, in a culture-independent way, that "higher socioeconomic class translates to more antisocial behavior?" Not without big caveats.

md_··on Michael Lewis and the parable of the lucky man taking the extra cookie (2017)
Interesting find. But my go to research for selfishness and class is https://www.pnas.org/content/109/11/4086.
md_··on Bad News
Heh.

I subscribe to the New Yorker. Every week I open it on Monday and I probably read about half of it by Sunday. I live in Europe, so I'm keenly aware of when the weekly issue comes out. (Due to timezone differences, it's typically not available in the app until Monday afternoon, so I start reading over afternoon coffee, not morning coffee.)

Every few weeks, within minutes or hours of a good 20-page article coming out--an article that will take me the week to digest--I see it posted on HN.

And of course, all the top commenters have strong, strong opinions on it.

Guess they're all just faster readers than I am.

md_··on Guantánamo survivor on the war on terror’s failure
Agreed! I wish more people would focus on that, instead of being focused on one particular prison resident (and far from the most sympathetic, in my view).
md_··on Guantánamo survivor on the war on terror’s failure
Thanks for the polite reply. :)
md_··on Guantánamo survivor on the war on terror’s failure
To paraphrase @popehat, this is just how federal prisons are. (OK, I don't know how such prisons are in the UK, but presumably they're bad.)

That's a Bad Thing, for sure. But I suspect most of Assange's fans aren't upset about the treatment of Assange because they oppose the carceral state; it's because they're fans of Assange.

In other words, if you say "I'm opposed to the conditions of Assange's detention", I suspect you're not saying you oppose the normal conditions of legal detention--which perhaps you should--but, rather, that you are opposed to the fact that those norms we happily apply to millions are being applied to Assange.

md_··on Guantánamo survivor on the war on terror’s failure
For sure. But I think there's value in both focusing on systemic issues, as you say, and in associating individuals with the indelible stain of their own immoral actions.

You can say that the rise of the Nazis was due to flaws in the Weimar political system and weaknesses in social institutions at that time, but you can also make sure people know the names of Eichmann and Heydrich and similar.

md_··on Guantánamo survivor on the war on terror’s failure
> I think it provides a worthwhile perspective as to the motivations of the US and what actions it considers to be important enough to put non-trivial effort and resources towards the pursuit and punishment of.

"The US" is not a monolith. Guantanamo--both the rapid expansion and ingestion of likely-innocent bystanders and the torture program--was an effort of the Bush-era Defense Department, specifically with high-level support from Donald Rumsfeld and legal cover from the Office of Legal Counsel (John Yoo).

The Assange extradition was a project of the Obama-era Justice Department. It's hard to see any commonalities (in terms of goals or decision-making) at the implementation level, and whatever else you think of Assange, the US's extradition requests have, essentially, followed both international norms and American and international law.

You can try to see some sort of historical through-line here about American imperialism (and you might be right), but, as with my above analogy, that's like saying "the Star of David analogy is pertinent because it relates to the abuse of government power." At a sufficient abstraction that's true, but it still doesn't shed a lot of light.

md_··on Guantánamo survivor on the war on terror’s failure
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/18/james-mitchell...

This also contains this amusing aside: "He also criticized Obama’s healthcare policy – a 'shit sandwich' – and his administration’s approach to global warming. Mitchell believes it’s a myth."

md_··on Guantánamo survivor on the war on terror’s failure
Among the key figures in the design of American torture programs during the War on Terror were American psychologists James Elmer Mitchell (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Elmer_Mitchell) and Bruce Jessen (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Jessen), who were paid $81m for their work.

Irony upon ironies: "Mitchell, who is retired and lives in Land o' Lakes, Florida, spends his free time kayaking, rafting and climbing.[14] He describes himself as an atheist and a supporter of Amnesty International.[10]"

md_··on Guantánamo survivor on the war on terror’s failure
These kinds of comments detract from the horror of the crimes in Guantanamo. It reminds me a bit of when Americans opposed to mask mandates liken them to having to wear yellow Stars of David.

Guantanamo detainees were tortured with stress positions, sexual abuse (including simulated rape), simulated executions (including being taken out to sea and told they would be thrown overboard), held in cold rooms, and told their family members would be arrested and put in prison.

This includes detainees who were later exonerated.

In comparison, Assange has been...in British custody pending the results of an extradition hearing? While contesting credible (be they right or wrong) charges of rape?

There's something deeply unjust in making this a discussion about Assange.

md_··on Internet of Snitches
For sure. I have problems with some policy approaches taken here. My point is only that a glib “consumption has nothing to do with production and is thus fine” argument is pretty absurd.
md_··on Internet of Snitches
Surely (some) people do pay for legally porn. Otherwise whose paying the costs of production?
md_··on Internet of Snitches
Oh, I was just joking about the author’s prominent pgp key: https://moxie.org/2015/02/24/gpg-and-me.html.
md_··on Internet of Snitches
I think there are a few theories here:

1. CSAM production may be incentivized by consumers (either because they pay for it or because they serve to encourage the producers).

2. CSAM may (as, famously, with Backpage) be an advertisement for real-world meet ups and further abuse.

3. Having pictures of one’s own abuse further disseminated is itself abusive and morally wrong.

Obviously producers should also be prosecuted, but while I do think the American approach is in many ways informed by puritanical beliefs, there are perfectly rational reasons to pursue the spread of such material.

md_··on Internet of Snitches
I’m reminded of Moxie Marlinspike’s comment about emails that come with a PGP signature.
md_··on Launch HN: Financial Choice (YC S21) – Checking accounts with market returns
Note the point I made elsewhere: that you’re likely to draw on your “cash” emergency fund in times of market downturn. (E.g., you lose your job because of layoffs due to a market crash.)

Having that “emergency fund” be invested in the market means you will have “buy high/sell low” events.

For sure some people can afford this and just like to live dangerously, of course.

md_··on Launch HN: Financial Choice (YC S21) – Checking accounts with market returns
"Today, banks invest customers' deposits and keep the returns mostly for themselves (the national average interest rate is just 0.03% [2])."

Yes, but banks aren't just turning around and investing deposits in the S&P 500. Right now, the marginal reserve requirement in the US is 10%. So the bank is keeping 10% of your deposit as cash.

This is pretty similar from the common advice to "keep 3 months' living expenses as an emergency fund." And thinking about that advice, I have to question the value of Financial Choice:

* If I'm a user with a reasonably high net worth--say, 10x my 3-month living expenses--I should probably just put the 3-month expenses into an FDIC-insured bank account and put the other 90% of my assets into a low-cost mutual fund or ETF.

* If I'm a user without 10x my 3-month living expenses, I definitely shouldn't be investing my emergency fund in speculative assets like equities!

So, like, who is this for? :)

Edit: Reading some of the other comments here, I get the impression there are some posters here in my first category who would like their 3-month living expenses to also be invested in equities. And yeah, if you are relatively high-net-worth-relative-to-expenses, you can risk it--someone in the "10x" category can suffer a 40% market downturn and still have a meaningful emergency fund.

On the flip side, consider that market downturns and the need to tap the emergency fund are not statistically independent; the emergency fund exists, in part, to avoid forcing you to reduce your market position to cover expenses when you lose your job in a downturn!

md_··on Sign-in on Android 2.3.7 or lower will not be allowed starting September 27
That's a fair point. I don't think the issue is that open source software has fewer dead ends--it's easy to adopt an open source tool that later loses critical mass--but rather that proprietary hardware+software combinations result in a distinctly frustrating outcome of "my hardware still works, but the software is no longer supported".
md_··on Sign-in on Android 2.3.7 or lower will not be allowed starting September 27
Repairability seems like only half the story. The devices you list are all mostly non-networked; nobody cares about security vulnerabilities in your NES because it isn't connected to the Internet and handling highly confidential information. That's not true of your smartphone.

Unfortunately, the reality with online devices is that:

a) They are sufficiently complex that they have an indeterminate (and effectively unending) supply of vulnerabilities

b) Effective vulnerability management requires vendor support

c) The market favors one-time ("sale") models, not ongoing ("subscription") models

As a result, vendors support devices for a fixed amount of time, often subject to arbitrary constraints (like going out of business or unexpectedly high costs of fixes).

From a consumer perspective, this usually manifests as computing devices getting worse over time--less performant, less secure, and surprising and arbitrary end-of-lifing.

You might argue that a more open device ecosystem allows open source contributors to fix vulnerabilities. This is true, to a degree, but only to a degree--just as (past some point) it isn't worth it for a vendor to keep patching a long-obsolete product with a tiny userbase, it's similarly true that an esoteric open source product won't attract a robust community that can meaningfully support it.

While free software advocates like to say "But at least it would be up to me to patch it," in practice, for most users (who aren't going to write their own patches, or hire a team of professionals to do so!), predictability, transparency, and fairness are the critical components in the products they use, not "openness" per se.

md_··on Disinformation for hire, a shadow industry, is quietly booming
> A phrase that I didn't use.

For sure. :) My point was only that there's a weirdly fine line between asking readers to be critical--which I think is valid--and the crank-laden calls to "do your own research."

md_··on Disinformation for hire, a shadow industry, is quietly booming
There's a lot of valid criticism to be had, but the alternative of "doing your own research"* is a little bit facile.

Real people who are actually engaged in the business of participating in society--holding down jobs, going to school, being citizens--don't have the time to effectively "research" every important issue, and, as a corollary, those who do tend to be cranks.

For sure nobody should engage in "uncritical acceptance", though to me this seems like a straw man. The test of a good newspaper isn't whether you can read it uncritically, but whether reading it critically leaves you more or less well informed.

* A distinctive phraseology which, as detailed in "Pale Horse Rider" (https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00OQS4DYQ/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?...), goes back to at least William Cooper and the 1990s, but has recently come to be used for things like vaccine skepticism and QAnon.

md_··on Disinformation for hire, a shadow industry, is quietly booming
Is your point that running ads is equivalent to the deceptive practices described in the original article? If so, can you make that a little more explicitly than your three-word argument ending in "etc"?

It seems to me, on its face, that this argument is laughable. The entire premise of concerns about disinfo is that disinfo is (by definition) deliberately deceptive, typically--as in the cases mentioned in the article--deceptive in posture (claiming to be opinion rather than paid propaganda) and origin (claiming to be from organic sources, like real voters, rather than sock-puppets controlled by political actors).

This criticism is, of course, not applicable to paid advertisements that disclose their source.

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