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mgreg

885 karma · joined March 1, 2013

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mgreg··on If 'Big Tech' Is an Antitrust Problem, Why Are We Ignoring Telecom?
And if you wanted to place an ad online to say, reach everyone in the US of driving age (car ad), or in Toronto during an NBA game (Pizza ad) what are all your options?
mgreg··on Launch HN: Prometheus (YC W19) – Remove CO2 from Air and Turn It into Gasoline
Appreciate you're sharing some of these details (thank you). I have been thinking about this same basic idea but with hydrogen and fuel cells but will need to evaluate the merits of electricity -> gasoline vs. electricity -> hydrogen.

Being able to work with existing infrastructure and vehicles and other components designed to work with gas is a huge advantage. And of course the simpler storage of gas vs. hydrogen is nice too.

In terms of efficiency we can do a little back of envelope calcualtions. Prometheus converts electricity to gas at 60 kWh a gallon (33.7 kWh) or about 56% efficient. Hydrogen production via electrolysis comes in at between 44.5 - 55 kWh/kg-H2 (I've seen a wide range of estimates) for a kg of Hydrogen (33 kWh) so about 60-70% efficient.

Of course then there's the reverse process of burning gas or using a fuel cell for electricity production. The Toyota Mirai gets about 68 miles per kg of hydrogen and the roughly equivalent Toyota Camry hybrid gets about 52 mpg.

So boiling this down (if I got this right and my data is good):

Gas method: 60kWh -> 1 gallon of gas -> 52 miles = .86 miles / kWh Hydrogen method: 55 kWh -> 1 kg of h2 -> 68 miles = 1.23 miles / kWh

Of course this ignores all the challenges to building the hydrogen infrastructure, public fear (warranted or not) about hydrogen, capital costs of both systems, etc. It's also likely the hydrogen conversion gets more efficient than the 55kWh to product 1kg but wanted to keep this conservative.

mgreg··on Google launches an end-to-end AI platform
Like anything you will need to focus on your differentiation and doing what others cannot or will not do. For instance Google requires you to bring your data to them (GCP). In many cases it may be better/easier to move the compute rather than the data. Perhaps you can bring your system to a customer's data more easily?
mgreg··on Apple Plus – brand versus subscription
The subscription based services (News, Games) are an important step forward but don't do enough to change things meaningfully for game developers and news publishers. On the plus side Apple relieves the burden of managing an ad ecosystem and the slimy feeling of selling out customers' attention to the highest bidder.

On the minus side the publishers and developers are still compensated by the amount of time users spend in their articles/games so the incentive is still to develop addictive and time hogging services or click bait. To be fair this is a difficult problem as there's not an objective measure for quality that compensation could be based on. Perhaps more thought could have gone into this though.

mgreg··on Amazon RDS on VMware preview announced
Link to AWS page: https://aws.amazon.com/rds/vmware/

Interesting. Does this signal that AWS believes some enterprise workloads will remain in private DCs? This is certainly a big value to those running on-prem databases.

Anyone have an idea on pricing?

mgreg··on California Privacy Bill would reign in Silicon Valley information brokers power
It doesn't seem that hard to comply. From the article:

"...the bill would allow California residents to find out what information businesses and data brokers collect about them, where that information comes from, and how it's shared. It would give people the power to ask for their data to be deleted and to order businesses to stop selling their personal information. It places limits on selling data on users younger than 16 years of age, and prohibits businesses from denying service to users for exercising their rights under the bill."

If you don't collect personal information it's easy. If you do collect it, just don't sell it and let the customer tell you to delete it.

Doesn't seem too different from dealing with credit card payments and lots of companies have figured out how to do that.

mgreg··on Counterproductive effects of the commuter parking tax benefit
You're correct but this tidbit also exposes the article's limited scope. It's sweeping the cost of public transportation under the rug and then providing unsubstantiated opinion on the "adverse impact" of the thing the author doesn't like.

To be clear I'm not arguing for or against parking or public transportation. But I do think we should be forming policies with more data and less opinion.

mgreg··on Counterproductive effects of the commuter parking tax benefit
Interesting dive into the tax code. I wonder how the article would have read if the author researched the amount of subsidies that go into public transportation. Public transport subsidies are a very material portion of most city budgets as rider's fares typically pay for less than half the cost of running the bus/subway/light rail system.

As an example San Francisco spends about $1 billion of its $9 billion city budget funding Muni - more than 10% of the entire city budget.

mgreg··on Announcing Our First Rideshare Partnership with Lyft
It will be exceedingly interesting to see how the relationships in the mobility space develop and evolve. And of course the details would be interesting to know (e.g. who has access to the driving data, service data, etc.).

More broadly, however, we'll likely see many more relationships develop between:

1. the multitude of smaller and relatively less capitalized self-driving companies (Drive.ai <i>only</i> raised ~$50 million in its last round) who may be more challenged to collect / simulate driving data

2. the better capitalized competitors (GM, Waymo/Google, Bosch, Tesal etc.) who have more means to collect / create data

3. those who have access to consumers (Uber, Lyft, Google/Waze/Maps, Ford/Chariot, GM cars & Cruise building it's own ride sharing app)

4. fleet service companies (commercial and rental)

5. freight services (UPS, Fedex, etc.)

6. OEMs / Tier 1s / manufacturers with different strategies (Ford, GM, BMW, FCA, Continental, Bosch, ...)

It's a wild, mixed up, confused world out there. Very interesting to see from a business strategy perspective.

mgreg··on We Have 24 Hours to Save Online Privacy Rules
Absolutely agree that there is not fierce competition in ISPs and that when they do compete it is more on price and speed than privacy so really no market driven factors to protect privacy. Of course I could offer a specious argument that there are satellite providers and dial-up so of course there's competition wink-wink.

The argument is essentially the same for Google/Facebook et al. Try telling someone who has used gmail for the last 10 years before Google altered their privacy policy for Google's benefit that if they want to keep their email private they're free to switch to Yahoo or Outlook. And that's a case where consumers have a choice. Consumers have no voice in web sites use of Google Analytics or Doubleclick. Or Facebook's like button. Or Adbobe's audience tracking....

mgreg··on We Have 24 Hours to Save Online Privacy Rules
I'm familiar with these arguments but find them wanting. Trying to avoid Google and Facebook online is very difficult even for a knowledgeable, tech literate consumer. These companies collect data nearly relentlessly from non google/facebook sites through "like" buttons, analytics tools, advertising placed on 3rd party sites etc. Trying to say that one willingly and with knowledge gives up privacy to google/facebook is naive at best and deceptive if said with integrity.

One could apply the same logic to ISPs, after all. If you don't like Verizon's privacy policy you're free to switch to Comcast, or ATT. Oh - they all have the same privacy sapping policy? Too bad.

Certainly it should not be too much to ask that a "normal" non-technical internet user should feel free to roam the open internet without every click and view being tracked. I cannot expect to train my grandmother avoid google/facebook, use privacy badger and/or ublock and know what to do when her video doesn't load or play because privacy badger has blocked some adobe tracker....

This is hacker news. Let's not accept cringeworthy arguments that could have been proudly published by lobbyists for Facebook here. If this audience cannot scale higher what hope do we have for society at large? So yes, we should have regulations to limit what ISPs can track. And yes, those policies should apply to extremely large internet ecosystems as well.

mgreg··on We Have 24 Hours to Save Online Privacy Rules
These rules are/were certainly a step in the right direction for the protection of consumer privacy and should be saved; the attention on consumer privacy is welcome.

What's fascinating is that other online privacy areas that I would argue are much more invasive and threatening to consumer privacy are completely ignored. I'm referring, of course, to the ecosystems of Google, Facebook, the new Verizon (AOL, Yahoo), and the many other companies looking to amass as much consumer data as possible for profit.

These FCC rules feel a bit like the FCC was patting themselves on the back for fixing a drip in the bathroom faucet while ignoring the broken pipe to the water main.

From a business perspective I can also see why ISPs would be so upset about their businesses having to abide by these rules while their competitors (again, Facebook, Google, et al) are left to collect data unbridled. The all sell ads after all.

mgreg··on Keras will be added to core TensorFlow at Google
It actually sounds like Keras as we know it will continue to exist and support both Theano and TF.

Theano support will continue for as long as Keras exists. This integration changes nothing for existing Keras users, only for TF users. - https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/821090410659344384

Rather than a "new" Keras it sounds (I could be wrong) as if the Keras API will be included now with TF as an alternative way of interacting with TF (as it has been for some time) and simple bundled with TF.

mgreg··on President Obama Should Shut Down the NSA’s Mass Spying Before It’s Too Late
How about this from none less than Senator Feinstein of California. She also happens to have been the head of the senate intelligence committee which is supposed to hold the intelligence departments accountable. They (CIA, NSA, FBI, etc.) always ask for more powers, it's her job (and the job of the entire committee) to protect Americans and their privacy and protection under the law.

Senator Dianne Feinstein Urges Senate Support for USA-Patriot Act Reauthorization http://www.feinstein.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-relea...

mgreg··on RethinkDB, SageMath, Andreessen-Horowitz, Basecamp and Open Source Software
Several interesting ideas to ponder due to the RethinkDB shutdown.

1. Business model / strategy is as important as the technology. Way too many people believe that all they need to do is build a great product (by all accounts it seems RethinkDB did) and the rest will take care of itself. Enterprise software is a very difficult business and at the moment going through tremendous change and while there is good opportunity it takes much more than good tech.

2. I would put RethinkDB in the "hard tech" category - the category that YC recently said they'd like to fund more of. Given the success of the technology but failure of the company it raises the question of what value YC brings to the table for a hard tech company? Many hard tech companies are very different than the companies that appear to enjoy the most success from YC (e.g. very different than AirBNB, Dropbox,...).

mgreg··on Challenges for Artificial Intelligence in Medicine
It's, perhaps unsurprisingly, in the diagnostics arena.
mgreg··on Challenges for Artificial Intelligence in Medicine
The fee for service model prevalent in healthcare today is certainly one reason. However there is a general mistrust of algorithms. Here's a paper that documents what hey call Algorithm Aversion: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2466040

Note that there are exceptions and this can be overcome.

mgreg··on Challenges for Artificial Intelligence in Medicine
> I'm curious: is anybody else here applying deep learning, or any other subfield of AI, to healthcare?

> If so... do the challenges listed in this post resonate? Do you believe the shifts identified are the right ones to focus on?

I'm applying deep learning in a healthcare application and certainly the points you raise resonate and are generally the right areas to address for utilizing AI (for points 2 and 3 really any innovative technology) but let me expand on them a bit.

#2: Deployment and the Outside-In Principle - Very often new technologies are coupled with business model innovation to bring about change. The complex and often perverse mechanics of the healthcare system in this country make this exceedingly difficult. I agree that models that more rationally couple risk with reward (e.g. Accountable Care Organizations, Bundled Payments, and payer/provider organizations like Kaiser) provide the right incentives to reduce cost while increasing the quality of care. This is an environment where technology can make a difference; not so in the fee for service model. I think the software "deployment" model is much less of an issue.

#3: Regulation and Fear - This is actually a significant challenge. The FDA has significant incentive to be very conservative with their approvals (lives may hang in the balance) and for them the risk of failure (i.e. a death caused by a device/test they approved and likely makes the news headlines) is MUCH more traumatic and negative than the rewards of success (some costs are reduced for a specific treatment or diagnostic that almost no one will ever hear about). Additionally the FDA, Doctors, and medical administrators suffer the same fear of formulaic decisions that most people do. We simply don't trust an algorithm to make decisions and so will resist them or hold them to significantly higher standards than we hold human driven decisions. This means even if you get through the FDA you'll potentially have resistance of doctors and patients.

If we export some of the other posts about radiology I can just imagine a patient's experience in a hospital. I'm sure a doctor or radiologist will share an anecdote like the one in this thread (radiologist saw an occlusion due to a poor image and detected a tumor) and scare a patient into thinking a radiologist is better than an algorithm at reading an MRI/x-ray despite statistics that will (eventually) show that the deep learning algorithm will be more consistent and accurate. To be clear I'm not arguing that a radiologist not continue to be involved and review the diagnosis but that it will be difficult for this technology to be established in high-stakes applications due to fear.

mgreg··on Computers do better than pathologists in predicting lung cancer type, severity
>Why isn't this already is practice given ML advances in recent years?

Well it would be nice to first validate the results somewhere else (peer review should actually be completed) and no doubt some real world trials proceed and their results evaluated. This is what any FDA approval, at a minimum, would entail. Keep in mind what the author's themselves note in how this study may differ from the "real world":

"One limitation of this study is that cases submitted for TCGA and TMA databases might be biased in terms of having mostly images in which the morphological patterns of disease are definitive, which could be different from what pathologists encounter at their day-to-day practice."

Putting this into practice also requires looking at the bigger picture; not just the accuracy of the diagnosis vs. humans.

For example I have found that in studies doctors are much more conservative in their diagnosis than an academic algorithm with no implication on patient outcome. For instance if the question is a) "cancer" or b) "not cancer" the doctor, fearing patient harm, malpractice suits, career derailment, will be biased to identifying "a) cancer" because the perceived costs of a false positive (treating for a nonexistent cancer which may have significant ill effects) are lower than a false negative (not treating a real cancer leading potentially to death). This will reduce the human doctor's accuracy on diagnosis.

What the "right" bias is in an individual case can bring in many more factors and moral questions out of scope for this study.

This is not to argue that tools like these should not be developed and utilized but practical application is often more difficult than just solving the technology challenge. I'm certain that we'll see many advances in healthcare due to ML.

mgreg··on Computers do better than pathologists in predicting lung cancer type, severity
Very good point. Even if this particular study isn't a "breakthrough" it is likely a matter of time before AI / Deep Learning (what term am I supposed to use?) is able to better interpret visual data than a human. The real barriers to adoption of such a technology are significant and can be witnessed in the popular Self Driving Car technology race. Many people seem to believe the technology problem has already been solved or will be shortly but regulations, public perception, and adjacent industries (i.e. insurance) must adapt before we actually see self driving cars for the common man. These tend to be slow moving beasts.

Given how many applications we're seeing for AI it seems that there may be a battle for attention of lawmakers and others for which AI application we put into production first given the limited bandwidth our regulators have; it's not like congress has been especially productive over the last many years.

mgreg··on Tech Giants Gobble Startups in an Antitrust Blind Spot
An interesting read for background on this is from the economist this may examining the state of competition in the US.

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21695385-profits-are-...

mgreg··on Intel to buy deep-learning startup Nervana Systems for at least $350M
Likely a good move for Intel to get in on one of the faster growing areas of computing. Let's the compete with the GPU folks and offer something to the cloud players eventually (a la Tensor Processing Unit). Nice to see the competition.

Also lets Nervana scale and potentially get their Neon deep learning framework out there in the face of bigger players (a la TensorFlow).

All in all it's good to see the competition in this space.

mgreg··on Introducing Sign in with Slack
Interesting track for Slack to take. Curious about a couple of things in case anyone from Slack is listening:

1. Why not use OpenID Connect (http://openid.net/connect/) on top of OAuth?

2. How does this compare to Okta, Ping, etc.? Seems like this may be a solved problem in the enterprise space and I'm curious what Slack brings to the table that couldn't be done with existing solutions.

mgreg··on How to Earn a Technical Co-Founder
Completely agree on both side. I'm amazed at how little folks (technical and non-technical) looking to start a business ignore basic strategy questions or seek to understand their market, the competition, and a model for profitability.

Personally I think some of the most enjoyable parts of starting are debating these points, creating inexpensive tests to validate (or invalidate) them, and evolve the idea.

mgreg··on Introducing Safari Technology Preview
Anyone know if they plan on introducing support for Service Workers ("Progressive Web Apps" in Google parlance) soon?
mgreg··on It Is Time for Passwordless Login (2015)
True that the password reset and the "login" using this proposal travel the same path and present the same attack vector but there is some disadvantage to the frequency in which the "login" system would travel down this less-than-secure path. The more times you use this the more likely that someone will just happen to be watching and waiting at the right time.

Let's not forget that most of the email system is still not encrypted (last time I checked anyway) even though the last mile between your mail server and your client may be.

mgreg··on The Sign Up with Google Mistake You Can't Fix
> OAuth is an authorization system, not a mere authentication system

You're right. Sorry for my sloppy use of AuthN and AuthZ. My point is that for day to day authentication into 3rd party sites which is what I think most people use "Sign in with Google" and the like for might be better served by a 3rd party with less or no data. Less chance of accidents like the subject of this HN thread.

Of course as others have suggested Google could implement a more serious authorization system for elevated or unusual privileges in order to get users, such as this one, to pay attention.

mgreg··on The Sign Up with Google Mistake You Can't Fix
I would tend to agree. In this whole episode I don't think either Google or the user are "at fault." I think its an unfortunate misunderstanding. A powerful tool accidentally misused.

It does make me think that perhaps authentication (OAuth) would be better provided by an independent organization that didn't house so much personal data (that is, not an email provider nor a social network). An independent provider that didn't have much, if any, personal info would prevent this accidental release of information and control. That way if someone _really_ wanted to give a third party access to and control of their email at Google they would have to actually take the extra step of logging into Google and deliberately providing the access. In this case introducing friction into the process may save the user from shooting himself in the foot.

mgreg··on The Sign Up with Google Mistake You Can't Fix
I wonder if this is a good reason to NOT use your email provider as your authentication (OAuth) provider?
mgreg··on Open Letter to Mozilla: Bring Back Persona
I too, am in the camp that would like to see open alternatives to the proprietary SSO function. To me this is much more than just a technology problem, however. It's a two sided market creation problem.

Email providers don't have significant incentive to become Identity Providers; Web site owners do not have significant incentive to accept persona at least until many users adopt/request it; Users are mostly unaware of Persona's existence and the argument in favor for many is rather weak as the people who seem to care about privacy seem to be in an exclusive club.

There are a few keys to success that I can think of off the top of my head:

1. Solid awareness campaign to explain benefits to non-HN type users. Would depend on solid benefits of security, convenience/simplicity, and privacy.

2. Fantastic "default" identity provider as most email providers will not, in the short term, become Identity Providers. This has to work without sacrificing UX, security, convenience/simplicity, and privacy.

3. Adoption by at least 1 major email provider (e.g. FastMail).

While I don't bring much in the way of development skills (not my strength at all), I would be very willing to help on the strategy, partnerships / business development, marketing etc. front.

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