mint5

So a win will be returning to Obama’s Iran deal?

And the reason no one brings up Ukraine is because we used more interceptors in three days than were sent to Ukraine in the entire 4+ years of war. It’s a complaint that doesn’t make sense unless one is jd Vance.

The difference is obvious.

“ For the US, the only pain is inflation”

That is not correct and the comment you replied to even pointed out several ways it hurt the US other than that

Inflation is the only Immediate pain. The other harms will play out over years.

While war games already predicted we’d run out of basically all defensive and offensive weapons almost immediately in a confrontation with China, that wasn’t demonstrated yet. Now it has been proven, but not even with China, with much smaller and less powerful Iran. We used a major portion of our stuff, it didn’t accomplish anything major, and now we’re already depleted like a paper tiger.

“It’s clear that Polymarket and Kalshi host these markets to serve bettors, not to produce useful information. Take Kalshi’s “Best AIs this week?” markets, which not only cover too short a time period to be useful in any decision.”

Yeah the site is clearly optimized for betting at the expense of the purported purpose.

Looking at polymarket, wagers that could yield interesting odds are generally turned into meaningless junk by contrived timelines or other technicalities that aren’t at all related to the core thesis of the wager. I.e the flashy thing the wager talked about wasn’t the main contention of the odds, an artificially constrained timeline or other not useful technical detail is what the wagers hinge on.

It’s also strange how so few had advance cutoffs. The person with “info” is incentivized to hold their bet to the last minute, so even accepting the premise that the markets provide info, the wagers seem structurally designed to give that info when’s it’s too late to be of use. If the wanted to fix that it would be easy but they don’t. It’s as simple as forcing long run wagers to have a gap between the wager period and the resolution time point.

Yes my comment was a bit of a knee jerk reaction to seeing a statement, but take a pause and consider what caused it.

It shouldn’t be surprising that a call for shrinking government after the doge fiasco raises counter examples, especially in response to an article on doge.

And since your statement was so broad and generalized, it doesn’t really lend itself to constructive debate.

But yes this site strives for more quality discussion.

It seems we both agree though, but have different views on where to set the scale.

We agree on the fundamental yeah? Can we agree that while regulation and enforcement, aka big government, is annoying and costly, yet at the same time a good number of regulations are or were necessary due to being written in literal blood.

We agree on that right? That neither of us want melamine poisoning the milk small kids drink nor do we want our kitchen counter tops to be priced in terms of lung chunks of workers. But also acknowledge that regulations hurt small businesses and need balance.

I too pine for the days when we could easily have fun by lighting the rivers on fire to pass the time.

If gambling wasn’t about the money then it wouldn’t be centered around money.

Southwest was very different and I personally preferred it. But Now it’s undifferentiated itself.

I have no reason to prefer it anymore other than if it’s the best on route and price. After all, it’s undifferentiated now.

“ If you and I flip a coin for $100, there's no scam.” statistically over a time with a fair coin, they’re coming out even.

Add in the house taking a cut each time, now everyone but the house is guaranteed to lose.

Sounds like a scam to me

No no no, the outcome revealed new information as the market intends! That info is that people had discounted the rare weather event “a 10% chance of localized hairdryers” on the day in question. The bettor predicted this better than everyone else, making their info public by placing a bet!!! /s

It’s a scam when the house takes $1 from that $100 each time. These unlicensed internet gambling halls most certainly take their cut, whatever that amount is.

Why are you narrowly focusing on gluten intolerance when this line of comments appears to be denying whether gut biome is worth caring about due to having impacts on health?

“I don’t understand it well enough in my opinion so we shouldn’t care about it”?

I’m pretty sure there’s hundreds of things we rightly understood are detrimental centuries before we knew how it worked. Aka pretty much everything bad before 1900.

But why does everything need to be sweet? Most things don’t need sweetened and shouldn’t be sweet.

Of the things that do benefit from sweeteners, they always need like 1/5 the level added.

Americans have been trained to love saccharine levels of sweetness. People can easily handle and enjoy lower levels of sweetness if they just do it for a few weeks to recalibrate from candy land.

And Ideally not connected to company WiFi

Info available to everyone? Yeah nope. That’s like saying the moon is cheese with a straight face.

All anyone knows is that some bloke put money down an hour before the bet resolves.

They don’t know squat about what info those betters have.

Stop telling us the moon is cheese

Ah yes historical events, the famously reliable predictor of future events until they aren’t.

“indicator that there is insider information.”

But that’s not the claim people bandy about on the gambling markets.

They claim it incentives sharing of info, but what you’re saying is it’s only sharing meta info. That the info remains secret and the wagers reveal that it’s possible insider info exists - not what the info is.

Honestly, this has all the same smell as NFT justifications. I’d be suprised if the main touts of prediction markets weren’t previously touting NFTs and “smart” contracts. Actually, it even seems like the markets are inspired by those.

Please Explain how a last minute insider info bet helps the public in any way or fashion aside from fleecing fools of their money?

How does making a wager cause insider info to be public? All it means is an anonymous account placed money on the outcome, how does it make public anything that an insider knows? It doesn’t.

It incentives them to keep the info secret in order to profit or a wager on a related outcome. The insider info remains secret, all people know is some bloke stood up a new account and placed a big bet.

And for these short timespan bets, it seems utterly useless. If the wagers were only allowed on things two weeks out, and not allow bets on short term events then maybe it could show more info.

Wrong. While I agree about younger people’s impression and experience with apps and the internet, that is not what companies are responding to - in fact it’s backward.

Companies have for ages pushed apps due to more control and data. That’s why younger folk grew up with apps.

The push to apps was absolutely not due to companies responding to consumer sentiment. Yes now it has been ingrained so now there are expectations, but those are due to companies pushing people to apps for years and years

No one here is saying this is China fault, they’re saying the current situation is on par for how the USA, China and Russia treat the world.

In this thread the only reason people have brought up Chinese issues are because the strong defensiveness of others like China is some saint. They’re not.

Also I think two more examples were missed, how Ukraine wouldn’t have been invaded without china’s tolerance of their ally doing it, and Hong Kong repression. Also how Iran and Ukraine make it much more likely they finally go for Taiwan like they’ve been posturing to do.

To deny China isn’t like Russia and the US in this regards is like thinking Trump was going to be the peace president as he claimed

Are you claiming Harris or Biden would have bombed Iran like this? That does not sound credible, but if the other party wouldn’t have attached Iran then this is not business as usual, it’s the GOP as usual.

>“Think about it. If someone actually bombed or invaded the continental US you'd have woke libs cheering for Donald Trump”

I think this is a scenario Steven miller fantasizes about while playing with action figures but that’s the closest it gets to being real.

Sure derogatory terms for liberals, as you term the left, would support the armed forces if China invaded hawaii but expecting them to also support Trump is fantasy. Like supporting America and supporting Donald Trump are entirely different matters and usually divergent.

Hey you seem puzzled by the Republic vs democracy concepts so I’ll throw you a bone. Here’s a clear explainer that will solve your confusion: https://www.merriam-webster.com/grammar/democracy-and-republ...

If you don’t have time to read it, the short answer is the USA is both a republic and democracy!

Bad taste started with you calling me obtuse

“The question is whether the data is accurate, not whether it is complete”

Oh so Lies of omission don’t exist? Deception researchers will be very keen to hear how that works.

So if someone Mormon bubbles a photo of you that also has a kid in it, you’re fine being arrested for indecency and registering as a sex offender? After all, that’s just omitting a few pixels, not a lie or deception in your book.

Well than it’s good that none of this is literally forbidden despite the dramatics.

Then author just wanted to be over dramatic about how it’s not cost competitive to build in the Bay Area vs places like Reno where the land is cheaper and labor is less. Their scape goat or whipping boy is regulations but that’s highly myopic at best.

Nice, you’ve just described how confirmation bias works.

Out of context, incomplete single data points that feels like one’s already held view is how confirmation bias works.

You’re right! Elon musks is gods gift to man, an infallible modern day Einstein who’s absolutely not racist or off the deep end.

How did I not realize the thousands of reports suggesting otherwise were actually all examples of nefarious propaganda by the consortium or haters. How unjust! We must reject anything that paints the angel in bad light!

I sincerely appreciate being enlightened!

I saw complaints that amounted to “it’s more expensive to build out large industrial facilities in bay area than in Reno”

okay what’s different in Reno hmmm I could be like the website and try to imply it’s only environmental regulations… or I could acknowledge that land price and availability is drastically different and also labor costs…. But then that wouldn’t help my contrived argument that it’s all the pesky regulations.

Again, without apples to apples comparisons to other areas, wha are you actually able to conclude from the website other than stoking confirmation bias?