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monkeydreams

1,141 karma · joined August 31, 2017

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monkeydreams··on Olivine Weathering Can Reverse Global Warming in Our Lifetime
Those costs seem very low per tonne of co2. Even if it were more expensive, however, it would be worth doing as the alternative is so, so much greater.
monkeydreams··on Drugs like ritalin, dexamphetamine decrease the quality of cognitive effort
....for people not suffering from ADHD.
monkeydreams··on Did Arthur Booth turn his life around after Judge Mindy's revelation?
This smells like it was written by an A.I.
monkeydreams··on Black holes might be defects in spacetime
Sabine argues the data, in good(ish) faith, but she does carry a chip on her shoulder.

Peterson does not argue data - he suggests analogies and then holds those analogies as iron-clad transitive relationships to argue his preconceived position.

monkeydreams··on Alien Supercivilizations Absent from 100k Nearby Galaxies (2015)
> It's not simplistic, it's simply practical. Either we search for life as we know it, or we don't search at all.

So we are the drunk looking for his keys in the pool of light under the streetlamp, but not in the dark carpark where we dropped them?

monkeydreams··on 300 Years of 'Too Big to Jail'
The comment above yours states Trump pardoned friends and allies moreso than any other president. All his comparatively low overall numbers demonstrate is that if your pardoning did not help him, it wasn't going to happen.
monkeydreams··on Crooks’ mistaken bet on encrypted phones
> Let alone trusting someone else to harden it for you.

At some point you have to trust others in order to take advantage of network effects, and network effects are exactly what these crooks were seeking to manage. The criminals in this case wanted secure, supported hardware in order to conduct operations and logistics across a range of countries.

monkeydreams··on Cash App founder Bob Lee stabbed to death after argument about suspect's sister
As a subscriber to this sub-reddit, the constant spamming of stories relating to people of particular ethnicities committing crimes was annoying. It became a constant drum to summon to action racist trolls and idiots.
monkeydreams··on The least impactful way to spend $300M?
> Which "free spaces" are running out where?

Not OP but the college entrance scandal is a great example. With the super wealthy taking up all the philanthropic entrance positions the "just" wealthy set had to resort to cheating and rorts to ease little Johnny Blueblood's way into society.

There is only so much room at the top.

monkeydreams··on Surprising things happen when you put 25 AI agents together in an RPG town
The most surprising thing, someone worked out how to tilemap all the Modern Interior walls properly.
monkeydreams··on JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession
> The problem is that with modern politics and all its tools, logical (proposed) solutions aren't needed. Éric Zemmour, multiple times found guilty of stoking racism on TV, got 2.5 million votes/7% of the presidential vote in France on a platform that basically consisted of "France is no longer France, let's ship everyone of foreign descent to where they come from, ban Muslims, rename every person with a foreign name, screw the EU".

In other Western countries it is not uncommon for 7-10+% of the vote to go toward extreme right-wing parties. This is not the death knell of Democracy. 10% of the vote is a long way from winning government.

The problem for would-be dictators who are trying to usurp the West's governments is that, once things get tough under their leadership, the population turns against them very quickly. Take the Tories in the UK - if an election were to be held today they would likely become only the third largest party in the UK lower house. Similarly the conservative Coalition in Australia; they were trounced in both state and federal elections after their competence and corruption became clear.

The West takes some hits from time to time. It's strength is in its ability to recover.

monkeydreams··on JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession
> This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors. China, Russia and non-alignment members are all challenging the status quo.

Two blocs are emerging. One is largely unified around shared cultural interests in resilient democracy and defence of human rights. The other is a hodge-podge of malcontents, allies-of-convenience and one strong but largely regional power (i.e. China).

If we look at this as a political struggle then we have to look at the problem-solution ledger to see who holds the advantage.

The US (and the West) have issues with an imbalance of power and wealth, and growing numbers of disillusioned, young voters - this is the problem statement. What is the solution that the non-aligned movement can offer? Worse inequality? Fewer rights? What?

The non-aligned countries have fractuous political bases and are shoring up their systems by cracking down on dissedents, attacking neighbours and attempting to corrupt other nation's foreign policies. No one is lining up to migrate to these countries, no one is holding them up as a beacon of rightousness (outside of the wingnut extremes, of course).

Contrast this to the Cold War. The Soviets held a significant sway over the "International Left". They had answers to the problems of the West. Not good answers, but good enough to sway a lot of students and intelligentsia.

China has no allies of note. Russia is a basket case. The rest of the non-aligned bloc are essentially local dictators trying to keep the pin in their respective grenades. All of them are experiencing the same struggle of either a rapidly aging population with no migration, or a rapidly growing youth who want a better life. For example, China's median age is rising 6 months for every year that passes, and they are a long way from being a sustainable, powerful economy.

These are interesting times in the political sense but unless the West starts kicking a lot of "own goals" - which is very possible but not exactly probable - then the US (and to a lesser extent the EU) will own this century as well.

monkeydreams··on JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession
Even in this rapidly changing world it would be unwise to bet against the nation that has the US's habit of reinventing itself.
monkeydreams··on Build Your Own Database from Scratch
I disagree with the premise that building your own is a poor way to learn operational concepts.

The experience of building a toy db created a schema onto which a lot of my on-the-job learning required.

monkeydreams··on The Steam Deck is on sale for the first time ever
Via Kogan and Kogan affilliates. So good luck getting any support if there's an issue.
monkeydreams··on The Steam Deck is on sale for the first time ever
I expect Australia will never see them, or at least not until they are technologically obselete.

Im already scrounging my pennies for some flavour of Aya.

monkeydreams··on A Bank of One's Own
Libertarions really are the house cats that think they are lions.
monkeydreams··on Is Australia's lower house “gerrymandered”?
So having a non-political organisation drawing electoral maps with near to identical numbers of people within these zones who vote preferentially sp that their least popular candidate loses is gerrymandering?
monkeydreams··on Is Australia's lower house “gerrymandered”?
All voting systems are subject to gaming. Preferential systems are primarily subject to "Least Favourite Candidate Loses". The Labor party may have lost votes but they were preferred over the Coalition by a considerable margin.

> Here's hoping if they break their promise on income tax they'll be tossed soon enough.

The economic realities suggest this promise should be dropped. This does not hurt Labor's voters terribly, and does not impact the more left-leaning voters much at all. I expect this will be dropped and this will not hurt Labor at all, but will build them a reputation as economic pragmatists.

Personally I will be impacted by a "Stage 3" cut and yet I hope they are dropped. Even in this political climate, and with a mortgage to pay, I don't really see that this tax cut will help me more than a functioning public health system. Or help the country, as a whole, better than an actual welfare system.

Here's hoping the Coalition will continue their rightward march and another, actually conservative, party will grow from the wreck of the Teals and blue-ribbon seats they Libs lost.

monkeydreams··on Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat
> The only reason PRC would invade Taiwan is if Washington started installing ICBM silos there.

That would be too late, by definition, for China to invade. The US would likely be very wary of letting their missiles fall into enemy hands.

The PRC don't have a huge amount of time to take Taiwan. Their median age at 2020 was 37.5, their projected median age in 2030 is 42.7. For every two years that passes, their current demographic trajectory suggests their median age will grow by 1 year.

Unless they wish to fight an "old man" war, with all the societal tensions that arise from essentially sending the only grandchild of four grandparents to their death+, then the PRC need to hurry up and take Taiwan to allow them the force projection into the deep pacific.

Otherwise the Chinese century will be delayed another 100 years (or probably longer).

+Or the only great-grandchild of eight great-grandparents

monkeydreams··on Rapid demise of 'Dilbert' is no surprise to those watching
> Cancel culture is getting old.

Cancel culture is what the powerful call the power the weak have over them.

No one is forcing you to dislike songs by Michael Jackson, or to stop watching movies by Woody Allen or Roman Polanski. But enough people are making this choice to abandon the products of powerful people/organisations, and are making the choice to not utilise services that support these producers, that powerful companies are choosing to disassociate themselves from producers whose stance is morally repugnant.

You may not like the fact that everyone has this power - but that's the price of freedom I suppose.

monkeydreams··on Ask HN: What will be the first AI “incident”?
Yes but the "proof" of those ugly monkeys will remain on the internet forever, or at least until it remains economically viable to maintain the blockchain.
monkeydreams··on NASA, DARPA will test nuclear engine for future Mars missions
I am not a physicist but I suspect that we are already moving at significant speed relative to other bodies. We have no special frame of reference that defines our "real" speed.
monkeydreams··on Google would rather ruin its products than pay Sonos, and that's unacceptable
This is what emerging economies do. The US did it to England. China is doing it to the US.
monkeydreams··on Conservatives think ChatGPT has gone 'woke'
> then whoever gets to decide what is and isn't bias will be very powerful over the next 50 years.

Is the lack of bias a bias in and of itself? Adversarial systems can smudge data to remove the correlations between the training data and characteristics such as race, religion, etc - does this constitute bias?

monkeydreams··on Heat pumps of the 1800s are becoming the technology of the future
> In a house I own in Melbourne, Australia

Same, and we have just implemented 2 x 7.1kw units along with about 7kwh solar panels. Our heating costs have plummeted and we can survive on days like today (17th Jan) with minimal impact to our comfort.

We are looking at changing water heating next as this is now the biggest part of our utility usage.

monkeydreams··on 'Oumuamua: An analysis of the debate regarding the first interstellar visitor
It's Occam's Razor. In order for it to be an interstellar rock, you require no other assumption because there is little evidence to suggest it isn't.

If you believe it is a probe you must assume an alien civilisation.

Occam's Razor suggests fewest assumptions win.

monkeydreams··on Video shows 8-car pileup after a Tesla allegedly using FSD stopped in tunnel
> no opportunity means they were following too closely.

No. This is the difference between following a car that slows suddenly and stops versus a stationary object suddenly appears on the road in front of you.

> if the car in front of you suddenly comes to a complete stop,

This is the point - the car in front of them moved and revealed an already stationary car.

The SUV jerked out of the lane without warning or prolonged use of brake lights right behind the stopped Tesla. The following drivers suddenly have far less processing and reaction time and likely would not be aware for at least a second that the car now in front of them was actually stopped and not just slowing down.

monkeydreams··on 'Maybe we cried too much' over shoplifting, Walgreens executive says
> Even though Walgreens is a national retailer, non-thieving locations should not be made to subsidize the thieving locations.

This is all part and parcel of society, of corporations, of any multi-site organisation. Each node has its own advantages and disadvantages. High "shrinkage" sites often have high sales and a corporation that sticks to "small town Illinois" is never going to be able to offer the economies of scale of Walgreens.

monkeydreams··on Can self-replicating species flourish in the interior of a star? (2020) [pdf]
Wouldn't the star itself be the closed system? Any lifeforms within it are free to reduce their own entropy so long as they increase entropy within the system.
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