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mr_toad

7,699 karma · joined October 31, 2017

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mr_toad··on Timestral: Mistral's time-series foundation models
All of them? It’s basically a parody of knowledge work.
mr_toad··on Timestral: Mistral's time-series foundation models
You’re not going to get venture capital funding by using auto.arima
mr_toad··on Starcraft: Ashfall
IP has very low marginal cost, emeralds don’t.
mr_toad··on How employment is changing at Anthropic
Historically, more efficient technology has led to a greater demand. It began with more efficient steam engines that required less coal for the same amount of work. That didn’t lead to a reduction in demand for coal, instead the acceleration in demand for coal changed the world.

However you measure it, in LOC or in MB or in ops per second, demand for more software always seems insatiable. This trend will likely continue up until software can be produced with zero humans at all. But I can’t see that happening unless we invent actual real artificial intelligence.

mr_toad··on How employment is changing at Anthropic
Even they can be replaced. They probably won’t even be last to go.
mr_toad··on Americans' social activity has steeply declined in the past 30 years
> The simple answer is media. First television, then internet, then smartphones.

It probably began with cave painting. Once Grog discovered cave art he realized that he didn’t actually like his fellow tribesmen all that much.

mr_toad··on The United Kingdom generates less electricity per person than in the 1970s
> Nah, they're directly driven by social media radicalization.

It’s much easier to radicalise someone who is already disaffected.

mr_toad··on OpenAI engineer arrested in bugging of executive conference room
Why would you assume that he was working for the Saudis? Spy agencies will recruit people of any nationality. Much more likely he was working with (or planning to work with) one of the two countries that are building AI.
mr_toad··on OpenAI engineer arrested in bugging of executive conference room
> Spies used to put effort into these sorts of things.

This guy’s handlers, or whoever he was planning to sell this tuff to probably put in some effort. They’re less likely to be caught, and more likely to have gained something.

mr_toad··on OpenAI engineer arrested in bugging of executive conference room
Should the founders have looped in the British authorities? Or shouldn’t they have been plotting sedition?
mr_toad··on Apple's new 'Switch to Safari' campaign details why you should ditch Chrome
I have never cursed at a website for a rendering issue.

I have cursed too many websites to count because of their broken form designs (like assuming a particular postcode format) or reliance on cookies from ad vendors for basic functionality. If your website needs to generate “a new google recaptcha cookie” (whatever that means) before I can enter payment info, then sorry, no es bueno.

mr_toad··on New Apple TV 4K
I have to say your head security guy was way ahead of the curve.

Anywhere I’ve worked it was firewall everything and use VPNs, and most places still do this. SFTP was in the too hard basket. And of course that led to people emailing files around as standard practice (and the only option) and inevitably some got emailed to the wrong recipients.

mr_toad··on Why were Victorian elites so effective?
Many people don’t realise that Adam Smith’s most famous work was a criticism of the prevailing economic policies of the era.
mr_toad··on Why were Victorian elites so effective?
> Ireland wasn't that great.

A lack of resources useful to industry didn’t help. The industrial revolution didn’t benefit everyone equally.

mr_toad··on Computers Cannot Make Decisions
AI companies are all limited liability corporations of one sort or another, and the liability of the owners for any decisions is … limited.
mr_toad··on Platforms' Violent Content Rules Are About to Meet The Pentagon's Firing Squad
Look! There’s a dead cat on the table!

Don’t mind high oil prices, inflation and the debacle in Iran.

mr_toad··on Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
Google doesn’t own the FABs, like Apple they outsource the manufacturing.

According to one article I read TSMC makes the TPU itself, Samsung and SK Hynix make the RAM, and Foxconn assemble the package.

mr_toad··on Archaeologists Are Reconstructing the 'Invisible' Technologies of the Stone Age
Sand is a pretty good heat conductor. It’d probably be ok on hot nights, but not so much in winter.
mr_toad··on So you think you could be an electrician?
> the capital owner is risking capital so should get to enjoy a disproportionate amount of their profits

Anyone who advanced that ‘defense’ has a poor understanding of economics.

Risk is not an essential element of capitalism. Some investments are effectively risk free. ‘Disproportionate’ return seems to be something you’ve just made up. There’s no mention of the proportionality of returns in any economic treatise I’ve ever read.

Lastly, there’s nothing to defend. There’s simply the observation that if there is no return on capital then there’s no reason at all to provide capital. Nobody has ever come up with a working alternative.

mr_toad··on A 12-year sequence of telescope images of a star and four planets orbiting
In October 2001 Wikipedia only had 12,000 articles, compared to 7+ million today.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Data:Number_of_English_Wi...

mr_toad··on A 12-year sequence of telescope images of a star and four planets orbiting
A million solar masses of stuff (stars and gases) orbiting within a parsec of the black hole would be quite a view even without the accretion disk.
mr_toad··on Venice’s failed war against Constantinople led to the first bond market
The Venetians also essentially opened the door to the Ottomans, and the Ottomans then proceeded to dismantle the Venetian empire.
mr_toad··on Every SaaS business will become a harness around a model
This is going to replace many layers of management who were pretty keen to use AI to replace their employees. So, poetic justice?
mr_toad··on Apple Pass Designer
I’ve been in queues behind people who can’t find their tickets in their email, or whenever they saved it, or can’t get an internet connection to open their email, cloud drive, or whatever. So it doesn’t seem like a solved problem for everyone.
mr_toad··on Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
> dont increase the price of the product?

Literal empty shelves. And resellers on Ebay making bank.

mr_toad··on Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
Google and Amazon have tied up all their capital (and then some) in data centre investments, they don’t have more money to spend on fabrication. Plus they have a lot of experience running data centres, and zero experience running fabs.
mr_toad··on Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
You don’t lower your prices on the off chance a competitor might enter the market in the future. You wait until they have invested capital but before they start making profits and are at their most vulnerable.
mr_toad··on Why the Bronze Age Collapsed
> Iron weapons aren't any better than bronze ones

Bronze is harder and more corrosion resistant, but forged iron (and especially iron that has been reforged) has a higher yield strength and is lighter, allowing longer lighter weapons. Compare the profile of bronze age and iron age swords in any museum and you can see that the bronze blades are shorter and wider that the iron weapons, and they would be considerably heavier.

mr_toad··on Surprisingly complex waves reveal the brain's inner workings
Seems to be pretty much in line with human reaction times?
mr_toad··on Two parallel neural ectoderm progenitors contribute to the developing brain
> In other words: only <20% of pur neuron budget goes to higher cognition (thinking, language, seeing, hearing). 80% is spent on motor skills.

Probably why robotics is harder than making a language model.

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