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mrep

4,462 karma · joined March 30, 2015

"There ain't no such thing as a free lunch" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_ain%27t_no_such_thing_as_a_free_lunch
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mrep··on Amazon confirms corporate staff cuts that could hit 10k employees
Where are you getting your numbers? They had 469 billion dollars in revenue and 38 billion dollars of income before taxes in 2021 [0].

[0]: https://s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/files/doc_financials/2021/q4/...

mrep··on Erik Hoel on Effective Altruism, Utilitarianism, and the Repugnant Conclusion
How did J. K. Rowling, Michael Jordan, or Jerry Seinfeld f* a lot of people and exploit the system's loopholes?
mrep··on Emergency SOS via satellite
Eh, I've been thinking about getting one of the Garmin dive watches but the stupid subscription for apples is more of a deal breaker than the air integration.

Apple watch with dive computer and air integration though would be awesome. Garmins is $1500 (+700$) so the margin should be there.

mrep··on An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets
That's questionable. From wiki [0]:

"A report in the Moscow Times quoted KGB veteran Vasily Pchelintsev as saying that there was a natural gas pipeline explosion in 1982, but it was near Tobolsk on a pipeline connecting the Urengoy gas field to the city of Chelyabinsk, and it was caused by poor construction rather than sabotage; according to Pchelintsev's account, no one was killed in the explosion and the damage was repaired within one day. Reed's account has also not been corroborated by intelligence agencies in the United States.

Another point of criticism of the sabotage allegations is that, according to Prof. V. D. Zakhmatov, an explosion safety expert who has overseen the safety measures on many of the Soviet oil and gas pipelines built in the 1980s, at the described timeframe Soviet Union simply didn't practice digital control of its pipeline system. Most of the control was manual, and whatever automation was used utilized the analog control systems, most of which worked through pneumatics."

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/At_the_Abyss

mrep··on FTX to file for U.S. bankruptcy, CEO resigns
> Are you in favor of strong encryption for messaging, but not payments? If so, I am curious to hear more of your reasoning on that.

Not OP but yes. The government needs taxes to fund itself which means it needs to track some financial transactions in order to levy taxes.

mrep··on US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected
Look at the 1980 based graph [0]. They are definitely implying 7-5-10% inflation for the past 25 years.

[0]: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

mrep··on Meta lays off 11,000 people
No, standard is about half of full time employees are programmers. This website has them at about 42%: https://newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/facebook
mrep··on Binance to acquire FTX
And FDIC to de-risk customers from feeling they need to do a bank run.
mrep··on Ask HN: Expected value of a $2 powerball ticket is now $4.10. Is it worth it?
600 million cash though so really $2 and that is before taxes which will take about half so more like $1
mrep··on Housing in Tokyo is cheaper and more spacious than people think
GDP can grow with a stable population if your Real gross domestic product per capita is growing which it has been for the USA [0]. Japans has barely grown for the past 30 years which is their big problem [1].

[0]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA

[1]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NYGDPPCAPKDJPN

mrep··on Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results
Wouldn't surprise me if they stopped and switched to dividends with the additional tax on buybacks.
mrep··on Consumer Price Index September [pdf]
U6 is also at an all time low: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE
mrep··on One trick Apple uses to make you think green bubbles are “gross”
Guessing you are not in the US? I am and all matches I have had on hinge have moved onto text and I have had a girl comment on the green bubbles. I don't even have fb messenger or whatsapp installed.
mrep··on One trick Apple uses to make you think green bubbles are “gross”
We ended up going on a date still but it did make me raise my eyebrows.
mrep··on One trick Apple uses to make you think green bubbles are “gross”
I've legit had 1 girl say "I don't know about these green bubbles" after we started texting...
mrep··on SAT score distributions in Michigan
Except local property taxes only pay for about half of k-12 education. The other half comes from federal and state governments and the way they give out funding is to selectively counteract that misallocation such that 47 states actually allocate more per-student funding to poor areas than to wealthier ones on average according to this article [0] and it has been this way since at least 1995.

[0]: https://apps.urban.org/features/school-funding-do-poor-kids-...

mrep··on Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?
2/3 of my debt payments are a sure thing as they are fixed and inflation is also a sure thing as deflation is catastrophic so governments won't allow it and deflation is trivially easy to fix with helicopter money.

The only thing that isn't a sure thing are wages but they have over the long term gone up [0] and when they do go down it is usually only for a few years.

The last one is a risk but I think it is well worth the risk.

[0]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N

mrep··on Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?
I like your thought process on the "rate of change in inflation" but BND and VTI are both down 15% in the past year when inflation has had the greatest change in decades.

I would have thought BND would have fallen a lot harder considering how much higher new bonds are paying but maybe the market is pretty good at pricing bonds based on their associated risk per length of bond time with inflation?

IDK, what do you think?

mrep··on Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?
Where are you at? I ask because I have 2 mortgages and a car loan in the US and 2 are fixed rate for the entire lifetime of the loan and 1 I have 10 years until the ARM starts applying so I'm laughing all the way to the bank.

90% of US mortgages are fixed for the entire loan.

mrep··on Fake Men on Hinge
> 93% of women prefer to be asked out on a date, while 16% of men prefer to be asked out. So if you're a man who won't ask women out, you're going to miss out on potential dates with a lot of women. No judgment — that may not be a bad strategy if you're the type of man who needs their partner to "wear the pants", so to speak.

Do you have a source for that because I find it shocking only 16% of men prefer to be asked out.

mrep··on Europe braces for mobile network blackouts
> So first thing is, yes, Russia has reason to fear USA.

> The other problem here is strategic and geographic: Russia border is enormous and in the middle of plains, driving across the border with tanks and reaching Moscow and other major population centers right now is something trivial to do, Russia still didn't recovered properly from WW2 and don't have the manpower to defend such huge border from a land invasion.

If every country in the world besides Russia joined NATO surrounding it completely, we would still never invade Russia because they have 1500 thermonuclear warheads! We are literally too afraid to even put our troops in Ukraine because of the threat that we all end up dead in nuclear war. Please give me 1 good reason for invading Russia that is worth the risk of all of us dying in the nuclear relation.

mrep··on U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 6.52%, highest since mid-2008
That and 7 years of savings between now and then but they asked why you would get one and that is one reason why.
mrep··on U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 6.52%, highest since mid-2008
I got a 10 year ARM back in march as it was 1.125% lower than a 30 year fixed. If I cannot get a good refinance in the first 7 years, I'll just focus on paying it off fully in the next 3. Worse comes to worse, I'm like 95% certain it will be worth at least what I paid for it in 10 years if I did need to sell it for any reason so I'm not worried at all.
mrep··on U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 6.52%, highest since mid-2008
You don't even need to do that, just make an all cash offer and set the closing date like 30-45 days out and you can finance it from the get go. You just need that extra closing time to get the financing ironed out and then you can still pay for a home with a mortgage even if you made an all cash offer. That is what I did with a place back in March.
mrep··on Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding
Amateur hour? I'd bet money there is an undetonated bomb on the final one that failed to go off and if I were Germany or whoever, I'd be sending underwater drones along the last one to try and find one. It could give you a ton of insights on who actually did it if you found an intact undetonated one.
mrep··on Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
> Realistically only US and Russia have the capacity to do 3 attacks like this simultaneously.

I'm no military expert but why? From reading about the pipeline, sections of it are between 80 meters and 110 meters deep which technical scuba divers can reach and the subsea blasts were equivalent to 100kg of dynamite.

Seems to me basically any country could wrangle up a decent sized boat, a few technical divers, 3 100kg bombs, and some time delayed chargers and planted bombs on the pipelines weeks or even months ago.

mrep··on US is becoming a developing country on global rankings that measure [...]
US is #2, only behind Luxembourg: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_income
mrep··on Rapid Green Energy Transition Will Likely Result in Trillions of Net Savings
That article mentions "reserves" 5 times and cost/price not once. Same type of articles were written about peak oil and then the price of oil went up and magically reserves grew as it be came profitable to find and extract new sources of oil.
mrep··on The Great American Tax Migration
Ok, lets compare SF and Austin then:

San Fransisco: $1,576,808 [0] * 1.18248499% [1] = $18,645.5179

Austin: $661,337 [2] * 2.2267% [3] = $14,725.991

[0]: https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca/home-values/

[1]: https://sftreasurer.org/property/secured-property-taxes

[2]: https://www.zillow.com/austin-tx/home-values/

[3]: https://www.homecity.com/blog/austin-property-tax/

mrep··on The Great American Tax Migration
Don't know why you are being downvoted.

CA: $788,679 [0] * 0.73% [1] = $5757.3567

TX: $315,235 [2] * 1.69% [3] = $5327.4715.

[0]: https://www.zillow.com/ca/home-values/

[1]: https://smartasset.com/taxes/california-property-tax-calcula....

[2]: https://www.zillow.com/tx/home-values/

[3]: https://smartasset.com/taxes/texas-property-tax-calculator#:....

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