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mrfredward

1,442 karma · joined June 12, 2018

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mrfredward··on MasterCard to push up fees for UK purchases from EU due to Brexit
The customer chooses the card, the retailer pays the fee. Other companies can't undercut Mastercard's fees because the consumer(the person making the decision of payment type here) doesn't know or care what the fee is.
mrfredward··on Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII
St Louis Federal Reserve: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

Keep in mind this is savings economy wide divided by personal income economy wide, so people with big numbers (high earners) disproportionately affect it.

mrfredward··on Management by metrics leads us astray
If you have a plan that relies on everyone in a nation of 300 million behaving ethically and honestly when there is a big incentive not to, you have a bad plan.

The moral failing is on the clinics, sure, but if you want to fix the problem, you have to look at the government.

mrfredward··on Software effort estimation is mostly fake research
Software is unique because it can be copy pasted. A builder that makes a house in 4 months the first time might estimate 3.5 months for a near identical house. But to deploy the same desktop app on two computers you merely reuse the installer from the first computer, and to recreate the same page in a different app you can copy the code, so no one ever estimates doing the same work twice. Every software problem has at least a little novelty, because if it isn't at least a little different, the work is already done.
mrfredward··on The Paradox of Abundance
>"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"

We really need to stop using Hanlon's razor when discussing businesses at scale. It is a great rule of thumb for everyday people, who are much more careless than malicious. With business though, there is too much money to be made by being shady and then hiding behind plausible deniability to always give the benefit of the doubt.

Outside hospital billing companies make mistakes all the time. It seems adequately explained by stupidity...until you realize the mistakes heavily tend in favor of overcharging. If the people who designed the system are benefitting from a systematic error, don't use Hanlon's razor.

If a delivery driver leaves your package at the wrong house, it's almost certainly an honest error. If a near monopoly delivery service constantly loses packages while heavily advertising package insurance, then there might be a reason they aren't improving their internal processes. (this isn't in reference to anything, I made up an example that could be either)

Anyway, off my rant and to your specific example: In the case of journalism...if clickbait headlines about stupid controversies outperform well written articles, then I have to think media executives know exactly what they're doing when they tell a journalist to bang out a dozen garbage articles a day.

mrfredward··on Inflation Truthers
>have been accomplished almost completely by reducing the weight of the cars

This is entirely false. All the work in materials to make cars lighter has been countered by added amenities (from power seats all the way to chilled cupholders), additional safety measures (extra airbags), and (in the U.S. at least) shifting preferences toward trucks and SUVs.

From the first google result on the subject, slate: "The average new car weighed 3,221 pounds in 1987 but 4,009 pounds in 2010."

Much of efficiency gains are coming from improved engines which have better control of the combustion process to make sure fuel burns more completely and less energy is wasted, or in other words, engines are better quality.

mrfredward··on Eric Engstrom, co-creator of DirectX, has died
The fact that you think "leave it alone" is an example of lacking critical thinking skills shows just how subjective this is.

On the assumption that not many people being interviewed by Microsoft in the 90s had an iPhone style plan or a desire to revolutionize cell phones, "leave it alone" is the most realistic, objectively useful answer a candidate might give. Sure, it demonstrates zero creativity, but it's totally unfair to say that person lacks critical thinking skills as their answer is the most rational.

To pass that question, you need to know the interviewer is looking for creativity and be able to make something up on the spot. That's obvious to many of us, but depending on the role I wouldn't fault someone for not being in tune to that question or ready for it.

mrfredward··on Should There Be Limits on Persuasive Technologies?
Cognitive biases are a real problem for free markets, but the question isn't whether free markets are perfect, it's how they compare to the alternatives.

People can make poor choices because of cognitive biases, or they can have choices made for them by other people with cognitive biases. The other people can be unelected, unaccountable leaders, or leaders that are chosen by voters, and politics seems to be where cognitive biases are worst.

In general, I would rather suffer for my own cognitive biases than the biases of elected officials and voters, but that's not to say I advocate for free markets in every scenario, because there is a lot more to consider than individual choice in that discussion.

mrfredward··on Games people play with cash flow
This post is making an error, or at least a poor choice in terminology, when thinking profit only means GAAP accounting or taxable profit.

Malone cut costs by reducing tax liability, getting better prices on programming, and increasing the subscriber base (revenue). What's that word for revenue minus expenses again?

A more honest explanation: Accounting depreciation != the actual change in value of things, and the cash flow statement can let you know when GAAP accounting isn't giving an accurate picture of success.

And about Malone's insight on leverage: Leverage ups your return on investment (when things don't blow up). Paying interest doesn't help you hide money from the tax man any better than setting dollar bills on fire would, but leverage can make big things happen from small amounts of investment.

mrfredward··on How the self-esteem craze took over America (2017)
Funny to see it mentioned in the article: I remember my middle school English teacher coming back from a continuing education course and saying she would no longer grade us in red ink, because studies showed red ink felt more critical and hurt students' self-esteem, which in turn made them less receptive to learning.

The data matches my intuition, as I've certainly seen the tendency to shut down in the face of criticism in myself, but I'm inclined to believe learning to cope with red ink is just as important a life skill as whatever we were learning in 7th grade English.

Self-esteem is positive, but achieving it by shielding kids from criticism in order to maintain a fragile fiction of how perfect and special they are is harmful. It's the ones who have good self-esteem even after seeing their mistakes circled in red who are best prepared for life.

mrfredward··on Gig economy companies spent more than $200M to bankroll Proposition 22
The fact that Congress provided some relief to self-employed people during a once in a century disaster is absolutely not a good reason to reclassify people as employees.

Businesses got billions in forgivable loans to simply not fire the people they'd hired, it seems reasonable that self-employed people get some help.

mrfredward··on Ask HN: Lost Economic Theories: Printing Inflation-Free Money?
Another important factor here is international currency exchange.

For a deeply simplified example: say you printed a bunch of money and handed it to Americans who wanted to buy electronics with the money. Factories in China would happily meet the extra demand for 80" TVs, and for their work they'd receive an influx of dollars, which they'd have to change into yuan to pay their workers and buy supplies.

Currency markets are subject to supply and demand of course, so this influx of people trying to exchange out dollars would make the dollar less valuable relative to the yuan. The devaluing of the dollar on international markets would make all imported goods more expensive, ergo inflation.

mrfredward··on John Gray: 'What can we learn from cats? Don't live in an imagined future'
>>It clears out the old to make way for the new.

Just imagine working for a boss who had been climbing the company ladder 200 years. Or trying to buy a house in a market where people had been accumulating capital for centuries. And lest we think it's just the the economic system, look at the average age of politicians. Or science, the researchers who hold the most prestige are likely past the point of embracing new ideas. Any advantage which can be accumulated over time would be held almost exclusively by the oldest, and the world would stagnate.

Death is the natural law which requires every generation to pass the torch. Without it, there'd be no life for the young.

mrfredward··on What everyone knows and what no one knows
The author compares it to asking about 2+2, but I think it's more closely analogous to asking "What can we say about 4 and 2+2?" Given the ambiguous wording, I wouldn't expect anyone to answer confidently, and lost of intelligent people would answer eight rather than "they're equal."
mrfredward··on Nvidia Uses AI to Slash Bandwidth on Video Calls
The distinction that makes ai compression creepy is that it can use prior knowledge of what a face is.

Traditional compression has no high level knowledge of what a video call looks like, the algorithms are about patterns in how pixels change in time and space, so the artifacts from the algorithm are pixel-based effects (blockiness, blurriness, etc).

A neural net that has been trained on a million faces and is setup to draw a face may draw a perfectly clear image of a face on low bandwidth...but when it doesn't have bandwidth to be accurate, it doesn't blur things, it fills in details learned from looking at strangers who aren't on the call.

mrfredward··on Why I stopped reading HN (2010)
The same author has a post from 2013 (3 years after "Why I stopped reading HN") addressing what is lost when programmers chase internet points.

https://sealedabstract.com/rants/hey-programmers-we-need-to-...

It resonates with me because I often find myself scrolling HN when I was meaning to be working on a project, both at work and at home.

mrfredward··on Extracting firmware from embedded devices [pdf]
Poorly behaved graphics drivers maybe? It would be quite a surprise to see an intentional exploit used on a pdf with such a narrow appeal.
mrfredward··on US college enrollments are falling, except for graduate degrees
>ISAs are securitized and resold. Lambda has zero incentive to do anything above and beyond pushing students through some percentage of the program.

I disagree with your analysis of the incentives here. The price people pay for tomorrow's securitized ISAs depends heavily on how well today's ISAs pay off. It's a delay in the feedback loop, but it isn't broken.

That being said, this incentive alone is likely weaker than the prevailing incentives in for-profit education, which seem to encourage saving a buck wherever possible and over-promising, under-delivering.

mrfredward··on Fintech in Chains
US healthcare spending in 2019: $3.6 Trillion

US Financial Sector profits: $422 billion

>It would still be worth conducting fintechy business. It would barely affect bonuses.

It is absurd and blatantly false to claim the entire burden of the U.S. healthcare system could be placed on a single industry with little effect.

mrfredward··on Microsoft's underwater data centre resurfaces after two years
>It takes about 80 watts to heat up a liter of water 1° celsius

You're confusing power and energy here.

mrfredward··on Tesla Shares Fall as It Fails to Make It into S&P 500 Index
For the individual you are correct, which is why companies haven't had much trouble getting people to buy non-voting stock.

But for the system as a whole, it's pretty important that the shareholders have the ability to vote for board members who will protect their interests, even if the power doesn't get used very often. That's why the SP committee is pushing back against multiclass shares...if the company's management controls the voting shares then they control the board which is supposed to be overseeing them, removing even a vague threat of accountability in a system that's already far from perfect.

mrfredward··on Ethereum Is a Dark Forest
In the article: "Better yet, if you happen to know a miner (we didn’t), you could have them include the transaction directly in a block"

But how could you guarantee the miner was trustworthy, and wouldn't just take the money after you told them.

Hmm...what if we could come up with some sort of smart contract...

(recursion ensues)

mrfredward··on Please read the paper before you comment
I believe the reason for that rule is to avoid polluting the thread with "did you even read" type remarks. Starting an argument won't help the thread recover from an uninformed comment.

Nothing in the rules discourages downvoting people who didn't read.

mrfredward··on MicroStrategy Adopts Bitcoin as Primary Treasury Reserve Asset
>I'm totally open to the idea that someone will come along and explain to my why my idea for how the Fed should give everyone money is just not workable.

Congress has this power, and can always use it. The fed doesn't have this power, and that's because a bunch of unelected bankers aren't supposed to be making political decisions about wealth distribution.

Read up on the difference between fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus...it's impossible to have an intelligent discussion on this subject without knowing how those things differ.

mrfredward··on MicroStrategy Adopts Bitcoin as Primary Treasury Reserve Asset
The Fed just buys debt...the closest thing to giving away money they can do is nudge someone's interest rates lower or make a loan easier to get.

Congress decides how the money is distributed when they're spending it.

mrfredward··on Solving the chaotic three-body problem using deep neural networks (2019)
In the paper: "The physical setup allows the initial conditions to be described by 2 parameters and the evolution of the system by 3 parameters"

Let's see, 3 input parameters, relying on a ton of pre-computed data, no ability to extrapolate beyond the precomputed numbers...they've invented the world's shittiest lookup table.

mrfredward··on AMD Reports Q2 2020 Earnings
Looking at earnings growth as a steady process can be misleading when profit margins vary. Intel has a 26% net margin, and AMD is just over 8%, so if AMD gets Intel's pricing power their earnings could be 3X as high before any change in revenue. For a look at the pathological case, realize that a company that breaks even one year and makes a trivially small profit the next has experienced infinite earnings growth.

That being said, I agree it looks like AMD stock is priced for something spectacular to happen, which makes me more excited about their chips than their stock.

mrfredward··on Sledding athletes are taking their lives
According to the article, the tracks are designed for sustained g-forces of 5Gs. These are the accelerations that are sustained for greater than a second. According to the annotations on the NYT's plot, the g forces which are most alarming are from when the helmet makes contact with the ice. This is precisely when the helmet accelerations would be expected to differ wildly from what the head is actually doing.

A low pass filter could easily be used to remove the impacts with the ice, but minus the impacts with the ice there's nothing in that acceleration trace that should be alarming for a professional athlete. The high frequency content is the concern here.

mrfredward··on A combo of fasting plus vitamin C is effective for hard-to-treat cancers in mice
Another commenter pointed out that one of the paper's authors, Valter Longo, has already written a number of books on intermittent fasting. While I think it's great when scientist publish in a form that is more accessible to the public, it's important to note that he was strongly invested in promoting intermittent fasting prior to this research being done, even to the point of selling a $300 mail order diet.

I think the reason this "entirely unexciting" study is getting attention is related to one of its author's having a talent for self-promotion.

mrfredward··on Ask HN: Is all of FAANG like this?
>You say the company is evidently pleased with your work and that may be true, but now you're part of the problem. You think the company tolerates shitty work, so you've decided to tolerate shitty work. Don't.

For a non-manager in a large organization, the choices are pretty much accept your work environment or leave it. Fighting the entire company's culture as a low level employee is like trying to move a mountain by pushing harder.

To OP: Accept the pace your department moves at, and look for little victories. Your never gonna get to write a new app in a week and be a hero in your current company/department, but there is still some satisfaction to be found in ironing out little wrinkles one at a time.

If/when you leave, look for a job you want to go to, rather than just looking for a way out of your current job.

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