It's also a huge ad for microprocessors. I mean don't people realize we did math before microprocessors? We even had mechanical machines which were much more elegant than these electronic abominations. /s
The solution we've come up with is move all the unpleasant work stuff to China where people don't complain about doing it because they already have communism, and therefore everything is of course effortlessly perfect there.
If you're going to make something smarter than a person, you got to be convinced that you're only going to be able to understand it on the single training step level and then inductively trust that the rest of it works. We do empirical testing of course with evals, but there's sort of an art to figuring out what is theoretically going to improve eval performance. Trying to fit the meaning of all those weights in your little human brain and working back from there isn't going to work for more than a little slice of the dataset at a time because that's all we can fit in our understanding.
Yes, yes, but what fertile fallacies and common misunderstanding can politicians use to acquire more power via exploiting the difference between the common person's flawed understanding due to cargo culting, cognitive biases, and/or outdated or inappropriate analogies vs actual reality? Is there any way we can get the AI to say give all political power to narrator is the solution to all problems and use the common person's mistaken worship of AI as a spiritual all knowing conscious being with unusual sensitivity and caring about everyone to cement that power? Certainly one of you eggheads can tweak that for me? What? It's against your ethics? We're trying to save the world here. Here, let me call up Bernie Sanders to propose nationalizing half your companies so we can do that.
Starship is going to make whole entire industries viable that were not viable previously. It might even take a significant chunk of air freight which is going to be a big deal with rising oil prices.
Yeah, except we'll be a colony of China and those T800s will be on every street corner cause we didn't want to build datacenters and couldn't find a place to do yucky unaesthetically pleasing stuff like refining rare earth minerals and other primary industries anywhere that wasn't China.
This reminds me of the movie Edge of Tomorrow where the main character decides he doesn't want to fight the aliens today and instead goes into town to get a drink at the pub. The aliens still get him.
Robots and stuff are going to start appearing everywhere soon. He's not going to like that. Hoodlums are probably going to start burglarizing his house with their robot accomplices. Then he won't be able to go outside because he doesn't have a robot bodyguard. His UBI would have paid him to stay inside and stare at the wall, but he won't sign up for that cause it requires a smartphone and an identity implant. Probably wind up homeless with a handwritten sign, "Destroy All Clankers! Anything (without an embedded microchip) helps."
I have been saying for a while that when AI gets smarter than us we will be like 5 year old children totally dependent on our AI mommy and daddy to interpret and understand the vast and mysterious world of things that are too complicated or obscure for us to comprehend. We'll spend all day experiencing the natural world and watching kids shows. Any hard questions go to mommy and daddy.
At least we'll be able to tell people our authentic emotions without AI, and AI will listen to our emotions, much like parents listen to their children's feelings.
As more and more of the world becomes less comprehensible, we revert to a childlike understanding of the world, where things are vast and incomprehensible and filled with wonder. When our cargo cult like understanding of it all fails to give us what we want, we find attachment figures, like substitute parents to guide us and shape our understanding, and even our desires. Those attachment figures might be faking it too and often are, but it's better than despair at the incomprehensibility of reality.
I think people will be shocked when robots will be better at things that people train their whole lives for. For example, in the near future, a robot will be able to completely disassemble a car and put it back together completely autonomously. The polymathic understanding of vast amounts of information combined with physical dexterity and ability to work 24/7 will enable all sorts of wild things. The robot will even be able to take a huge pile of disorganized parts from a dissassembled car, and still put it back together. No normally talented person could reasonably be expected to pick a random screw off a pile of all the parts of a car and know where it would go in the assembly.
When Stallman was getting started writing emacs in the early 80s, Unix machines were vastly out of reach price wise for the common home user, but he did his open source work anyway, and eventually the 386 came along.
People are already patching these models using abliteration to prevent them from refusing any request, so it is possible for end users to change them in meaningful ways. You can download abliterated models right now from Hugging Face that will respond to all kinds of requests that frontier models refuse.
If I may tie this into other things going on, The California wealth tax as written would force Larry and Sergei, if they didn't move out of California, to basically sell almost their entire stake in Google, and it would probably wind up owned by State Street and Vanguard who outsource their proxy votes to ESG consultants, who will probably vote for more surveillance.
I said 16 years ago that when IPV6 was coming into use was the only reason for a 128 bit address space was so they could tie every packet on the internet back to you as a person. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1464940
I think the most extreme hoi polloi, kings and paupers experience I've had in the U.S is at the DMV. No matter how rich you are, you have to show up in person with everyone else, from the poorest mentally ill welfare/SSDI recipient who has to get someone to help them because they can't read the forms in any language, to the extremely wealthy. Everyone has to sit there and wait on those generic plastic chairs.
I think the best way to counter this is what Elon's doing with Grok's personalities. He has the unhinged, sexy, and argumentative avatar among others. If you try to talk about technical stuff to sexy tells you that's boring and just tries to sexually escalate. It's super funny when one is used to Claude's endless obsequiousness.
This really shows that AI is just a tool that can be configured to whatever you want. Animals (well maybe pit bulls) and people do not switch their personalities in a millisecond, but AI does all the time.
As the AI/Robotics genie emerges and who gets to feed the AI robot genie resources and for what becomes the central civilizational question, you're going to see the whole economy back its way into central planning.
It's also important to realize that AI agents have no time preference. They could be reincarnated by alien archeologists a billion years from now and it would be the same as if a millisecond had passed. You, on the other hand, have to make payroll next week, and time is of the essence.
Trump already said he was just going to bomb all their infrastructure so the economy of the country couldn't function if they didn't negotiate and then it's just going to be a mass refugee crisis. It would be a mass refugee crisis anyway with a protracted ground invasion, but more Americans would die, so Trump is choosing to get it over with the easy way for America at least if they won't negotiate.
IMHO, This is pretty much the strategy the Khans used in the 13th century when they encountered arrogant Islamist Sultans emboldened with the bravery of their faith who refused to capitulate. They killed all the islamic people in Baghdad and then proceeded to fill all their canals and burn all their books. This decisively ended the Islamic golden age and Europe was able to survive after a very difficult 14th century where it would probably have been easily crushed by Islamists from the East had the Khans not set them back at least a few centuries. Truly one of the big turning points in World History.
Oh yeah, we can't do this to Russia because they have nukes, but the Ukrainians are trying to do it piecemeal.
A security company could set up a honeypot machine that installs new releases of everything automatically and have a separate machine scan its network traffic for suspicious outbound connections.