nuclearnice1

Conventional Prompt Global Strike is intended to provide the ability to deliver a conventional kinetic attack anywhere in the world within an hour. It has been an active area of weapons research for the US for 20 years. As you speculate, misinterpretation of the launch is a concern. [1]

As opensocket points out, there are many shorter range conventional weapons used across borders. The cruise missiles of gulf war 1 or the drones of the post September 11 world.

[1] https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/R41464.pdf

Interesting stuff!

Instead of biasing the coin, consider unrandomizing the flip.

Here’s one of many articles on Perci Diaconis trying just this

https://www.ams.org/publicoutreach/math-history/hap7-fifty-o...

Interesting stuff! What are the sources to learn more?

I think mateuszklimek is pointing out that the MIT license requires you to include the redata copyright in your source.

> can honestly believe that a bored roulette croupier could reproduce an outcome by consciously (or unconsciously)

The fantastic book, The Eudaemonic Pie, mentioned elsewhere in this thread, describes another groups attempts to beat roulette with prediction.

Along the way they encounter a croupier who always bets his tip money on 17. Why? “Because if I do everything just right, I can actually hit seventeen. Not that I can do it every time, mind you, but I can get close to it. I set the wheel going at a steady rate, and then I flip the ball in this nice regular way when the zero is lined up in front of me, and I swear I can hit seventeen with better-than-average odds.”

The “freakeconomics paper” [1] tries to claim abortions Tower substantially after Roe. They don’t have hard data. This is what they offer:

> documented abortions rose sharply in the wake of Roe, from under 750,000 in 1973 (when live births totaled 3.1 million) to over 1.6 million in 1980 (when live births totaled 3.6 million). If illegal abortions were already being performed in equivalent numbers, one would not expect a seven-year lag in reaching a steady state. Moreover, the costs of an abortion — financial and otherwise —dropped considerably after legalization.

You are correct some states were legal earlier. Donohue and Levitt have a section on that in a 2019 follow up paper [2]. Claim: Crime dropped earlier in those states that legalized earlier.

[1] http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/DonohueLevittT...

[2] https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_WP_201975.pd...

Once you have a company with an inefficient bureaucracy there are no easy answers. I could take another look that was favorable to those who demand the bureaucracy be circumvented.

Is the participant who intentionally submits so many requests that they anticipate breaking the system a good moral actor? I’d say no. You shouldn’t do things that are going to force your coworkers to endure the “system collapses under its own weight.” You’re just moving the pain of the bureaucracy from you to someone else who is also powerless to defy it.

The maximum asshole(MA) speaks a truth — the system isn’t working and we need to smash it. MA also informs all senior personnel that the system which they are most responsible for isn’t working.

I had heard of that book, but didn’t know anything about it, so thanks for the recommendation.

- maximum asshole. If you are politically powerful, escalate immediately and intensely. Theatrically demand, via your boss, their boss and in the name of the CEO and quarterly profitability that your project must be bureaucratically unblocked.

(Not an endorsement)

> succinct

has never been the New Yorker house style.

I agree more how would be a treat. I assume Kozhevnikov’s agreement to keep the how confidential was an impediment.

But a couple things I noted:

* G-tummo meditation, she went on, is not a state of relaxation but arousal. She thinks it may increase blood flow to the brain. G-tummo is difficult, requiring years of dedication to master.

* Try “visualizing your fingers in hot water, or yourself in a hot environment,”

There is more how in the corresponding Plos one article https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...

I hear you.

There is an asymmetry. You need a job. It’s your only job. They get hundreds of applications.

One adjustment I recommend is calibrating the amount of time you spend on an application. You shouldn’t be spending hours on a single cold application. Write your resume. See or hear of an opportunity. Send your standard resume and standard introduction. Hours of upfront work, but only a few minutes per application.

Focus on finding warming connections. The strength is in weak ties. Tell your family, friend, former coworker and update your linkedin.

Technical people are in huge demand. Given your skills you should have plenty of offers without much anxiety. You’ll get lots of non response. So it goes.

Good luck

big five?

I like this point of view. The system isn’t some permanent static game erected by Bezos and Schmidt for us to play out endlessly like Phil Connors in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.

We can shape things in limited ways. With some effort, we could see interesting results.

Do you have any examples of advertising that does good?

You raise some good questions about the locus of liability and responsibility.

I’d encourage you to do it without insulting the other participants on HN.

Spare a millisecond of thought for how your tone shapes the culture here.

You used two different standards for riots and wars. For riots you judged damage. For war you judged motivation.

Most wars fail your targeted vs collateral damage test. Maybe the US drone war from 2001 to present as an exception. Although we don’t really have the full picture to say.

Given your expertise, maybe you know, what is 'openly carrying a concealed weapon'?

In particular, ‘openly’

Maybe figure 4 from the Lancet article [1] mentioned above is helpful here. It is titled “Relative risk curves for selected conditions by number of standard drinks consumed daily.”

[1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

To point 1. In the brief I find at the red download link [1] contains the line “ Based on recent evidence, it has been concluded that there is “no safe level of alcohol consumption”(5).”

The reference points to an article from The Lancet [2]

[1] https://world-heart-federation.org/wp-content/uploads/WHF-Po...

[2] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

Some of the sentiment of your last sentence is embodied in open reviews.

https://openreview.net/group?id=ICLR.cc/2022/Conference&refe...

> Be kind. Don't be snarky.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

> We find that the average arrest rate for a cohort entering the labour market during a recession is 10.2% higher than for an otherwise similar cohort entering a more buoyant labour market. [1]

…

> Weinberg and his collaborators Eric D. Gould of Hebrew University and David Mustard of the University of Georgia examined young males with no more than a high school education—the demographic group that commits the most crime—they found that average wages and unemployment rates were directly linked to the incidence of property crimes. [2]

…

> Crime has increased during every recession since the late 1950s, sociologists said. [3]

[1] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/03/do-recessions-increas...

[2] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/do-recessions-inc...

[3] https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/...

Why do you prefer PG’s essays to these books?

Consistent with this line from the article:

> On average, 71 per cent of the world’s population aged 15-24 is using the Internet, compared with 57 per cent of all other age groups. This generational gap is reflected across all regions. It is most pronounced in the LDCs, where 34 per cent of young people are connected, compared with only 22 per cent of the rest of the population.

LDCs : Least Developed Countries

I believe it's misattributed.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/be-curious-not-judgmental-... https://ace.nd.edu/news/be-curious-not-judgmental-not-walt-w...

Here’s the complaint https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/us...

Some classic social engineering when he calls Citibank and convinces them to change they email address they have on record for approving transactions.

The 12% is close to the USDA ERS survey finding that 10.5% U.S. households were food insecure at some time during 2020.

That might be a place to begin investigating the difference between your lived experience and more systematic data collection efforts.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/fo...

Hardly new.

> But your father doesn't want to invest, say, ten thousand dollars in it, though I can almost guarantee that he'll get five times that sum back.

Tom Swift and His Giant Cannon 1913

https://www.gutenberg.org/files/1361/1361-h/1361-h.htm

Clarity also claims decidability. It gives up recursion and restricts looping.

https://github.com/clarity-lang/reference/blob/master/refere...

Are they useful at the start of a new variant?

For example if we assume it gets to the US eventually, what is, say, an extra few weeks buying the US?

On day 1 or in year 1, I see the value in those weeks. You can build ventilators, field hospitals, and learn treatments. At this point, are there new useful ways to use a few weeks of lead time?

Is anyone happy about the accumulation of passwords, authentications and verifications required in the modern technical world?

The founders and investors of 1Password, perhaps.

How do you manage consistency with these experiments?

If I do 5 of these micro experiments in a year, do I have 10 weeks of code that idiomatically doesn’t match the rest of the codebase?