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numakerg

279 karma · joined March 22, 2019

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numakerg··on ‘They Get Fired All the Time. And They Have No Idea Why’
I also think people underestimate the amount of knowledge and experience it takes to become a good manager (or any other talent for that matter). In discussions I often hear people claim that they could take on a leadership role and succeed simply because they are good in social settings and "have a way with others". I've seen a few of these people try and fail because they didn't think about the other components of management such as conflict resolution, delegation, etc.

I've only taken on trivial leadership roles, so my default assumption is that I am not a good manager. For most other skills I can practice and gain proficiency on my own, but with management, trial and error comes at the cost of others' time. I assume there is some training you can take to give you basic skills, but I think real experience has to be gained through a gradual expansion of responsibilities, which requires mentorship and an environment that supports that kind of process.

numakerg··on ‘They Get Fired All the Time. And They Have No Idea Why’
>Put someone not on a spectrum in a society of people on the spectrum, & you'd be labelling the person not on the spectrum as having a mental disorder.

You could still argue that non-spectrum people are more "naturally" normal. Competition among societies has selected for groups where non-spectrum individuals are more numerous, possibly because this ratio leads to less conflict and more cooperation.

I wonder if groups are selected for a prevalence of 2 to 4 individuals per thousand [1] because these types of individuals have been responsible for technological progress in some way.

1. https://www.aane.org/prevalence/

numakerg··on Die With Me – A chat app you can only use when you have less than 5% battery
A chat app that only lets you talk to people at the same altitude.
numakerg··on Subscription Fatigue: Nearly Half of US Consumers Frustrated by Streaming
Can you pay for some large number of subscriptions to all the streaming services then sell a wrapper service that offers all of the content and will swap logins for you depending on what you watch?

I guess the big players would shut that down really quickly.

numakerg··on Tech Interview Handbook
They trademarked the words "Core Exam"? That seems like a rather generic term.
numakerg··on Tech Interview Handbook
Was this a position where they were expected to write code? I'm surprised that developers making six figures couldn't solve a problem that an interviewer considered trivial.

Any chance of a sample or maybe an alternate version of the problem?

numakerg··on The Elder Scrolls: Skyblivion
I guess voice acting will be stripped from the older game, so it will require owning both.

I wonder how many people on the team came from the Morrowblivion project. Can't wait to heart about the Skyfall project circa 2024.

numakerg··on [dead]
A pretty generic puff piece, but I'm at least glad they omitted "X slams Y" in favor of the slightly less stale "X tore into Y".
numakerg··on I've reproduced 130 research papers about “predicting the stock market”
And the author has shown none.
numakerg··on I've reproduced 130 research papers about “predicting the stock market”
>Nothing useful came up,

Except plenty useful came up. "Literally every single paper was either p-hacked, overfit, or a subsample of favourable data was selected" out of 130+ is a significant result. The media would jump on this, and they just might even without any proof of work.

numakerg··on I've reproduced 130 research papers about “predicting the stock market”
Wait you DON'T want to invest your money into a black box crypto trading bot system with guaranteed returns?

For a community that prides itself on its critical thinking, HN is quick to laud a post with barely any substance when it confirms their preconceptions.

numakerg··on U.S. Farmers Stung by Tariffs Now Face a $3.5B Corn Loss
Probably fewer per calorie of food grown.
numakerg··on U.S. Farmers Stung by Tariffs Now Face a $3.5B Corn Loss
How do the costs of managing a multiculture field compare to a monoculture one?

I'd imagine the planting, maintenance and harvesting procedures benefit significantly from the crop being a single type.

numakerg··on U.S. Farmers Stung by Tariffs Now Face a $3.5B Corn Loss
Because then the industries and communities that support the farming will complain about job losses and vote accordingly. Then the rest of the country will complain about inflation.
numakerg··on NOAA Data Confirms July Was Hottest Month Ever Recorded
Does ESO own any stock in this company?

>The average American has a carbon footprint that can be offset with a $20 per month subscription

You have a source on that?

numakerg··on NOAA Data Confirms July Was Hottest Month Ever Recorded
What point are you trying to make?
numakerg··on Milky Way’s Black Hole Just Flared, Growing 75 Times as Bright for a Few Hours
According to Wikipedia, there are six near-Earth supernova candidates. Effects range from destruction of the ozone layer to 3–4 °C of global warming.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near-Earth_supernova

numakerg··on Paternity Leave Was Crucial After the Birth of My Child
Parental leave benefits you even if you don't have children. When you're old and infirm, you'll be lucky if society has enough young people to pay into social services and/or healthcare.
numakerg··on Arrived – a new model of home ownership
It could work if they have a very large portfolio in high-demand areas and can save on administration costs.
numakerg··on Arrived – a new model of home ownership
>lending institutions instead buy the asset (in this case, a house), and lease it out to the would-be borrower on an installment basis until a predetermined sum has been paid

If the would-be borrower misses a payment, do they get to keep a part of their total lease payments? When I take out a mortgage, the house is effectively owned by the bank and I also pay "installments until a predetermined sum has been paid". If I'm not able to pay the "installments" then I get kicked out.

numakerg··on Arrived – a new model of home ownership
On the surface it looks like a bad deal, because you could rent, put the same 7% of your rent into a mutual fund and/or get compound interest on your investment. By what mechanic will the effective in-network rent be lower than the market rent, and there's also the question of selection.

The biggest concern is what happens when the company folds? What if after liquidation they don't have enough value to pay out everyone's investments. Do seed investors get paid out first?

numakerg··on China’s liberalization and structural reform drives growth
>The real question is: why were the Europeans the only ones to embrace it.

I haven't read Huff's book so here's my stab in the dark. Europe has a lot of mainland coastline and the Mediterranean, which favors the formation of many small nation states and trans-Mediterranean trade. Among a large number of diverse and competing states, political, military and social ideas are more likely to be employed somewhere, and if successful, will rise to prominence within the local trade cluster by the process of natural selection.

If you have a large number of independent nation states, many of which import products and ideas from the far East, one of them is likely to put together a new military innovation that gives them an edge in warfare. Since the area sees frequent competition, other nations will quickly come into contact with the new technology and be forced to adopt it, or risk swift decline. A period of rapid innovation in metallurgy, chemistry and navigation (to name only a few) would develop a political culture that values technological development over traditional ideals.

I guess this would increase the demand for scientists/intellectuals and engineers. The total fund allocated by the political elite towards academics either through patronage or universities would increase the number of scientists in Europe. Ease of communication through mail channels and access to wider array of materials, both developed due to the increased volume of trade, would allow more scientists, to do more complicated research and exchange ideas more easily than ever before.

numakerg··on A Commercial Path to Fusion
How would a commercial venture plan to recoup their investment cost when (if) they finally reach a viable reactor design?

If an American/European company came out with a working reactor, would India and China pay for the technology, or would they put hundreds of billions into developing their own? What about the opposite scenario? Even a tiny peek at the design would shave off a large portion of the cutting edge investment. On the other hand, fusion could completely alter the course of climate change, perhaps it's cheaper in the long run to just give out the technology.

numakerg··on Consumer Trends That Destroyed Media’s Business Model
> Netflix eats online news

If Netflix is eating online news both in terms of attention and money then why wouldn't they partner with Netflix? I know a few seniors that are reluctant to switch because it doesn't have news or weather.

numakerg··on Consumer Trends That Destroyed Media’s Business Model
I wonder why it's mobile only, since I'd love something like this in a web interface. Maybe they data mined from your device is factored into the cost?
numakerg··on How YouTube converted people to flat Earth
I don't think these are the same. If you get 15 marbles, arrange them into groups of 1,2,3,4,5 and give them the proper labels, you can trivially prove that the sum of two groups of 2 equals 4 and not 5.

The proofs for round earth are not as trivial. People have varying degrees of skepticism. Some are genuinely curious and are convinced by demonstrations while others are just contrarians. If you've ever heard Eddie Bravo talk, it's clear he doesn't care about understanding what shape the earth is and just likes to spout conspiracies.

numakerg··on Data scientists shouldn't use Upwork
This kind of makes sense in the same way that AirBnb does. There are more users looking for work than employers looking to hire, just like there are more tourists looking for cheap accommodations than landlords willing to rent their space. The platform will cater to the group with the higher bargaining power.

However, the surveillance just seems like an absurd waste of resources. The author quotes $400 for the job, why does it matter how many hours it takes them? If you think $400 is too much, then bid on the project.

numakerg··on Project Vesta – Mitigating climate change with green sand beaches
My main point was about developing countries. Eric himself noted that "the idea is to utilize mines within 300 km (186 mi) of the destination beach" and "or many of the first beaches, we will be looking to use tailings piles (waste rock) from previously dug and developed mines, as well as the infrastructure from those mines, such as rail for transport". The idea is summarized in this image [1], which shows mines and their associates beaches that the project intends to target due the proximity.

Most of those beaches are in developing countries. If nourishing the beaches with olivine has some unforeseen, negative ecological consequence, those countries might not be financially equipped to deal with the cleanup. How are those beaches going to be insured?

In the case of California, I'm not familiar with their beach nourishing process, but I assume they are using sand that is more similar in content to what was naturally present. If the beaches have been replenished for years, then we at least have some idea about the short-term effects.

1. https://projectvesta.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Image-59...

numakerg··on Project Vesta – Mitigating climate change with green sand beaches
Hi Eric,

How do you plan to compensate countries who own the beaches or waters targeted by the project? Do you have an estimate of how receptive a community will be to having their beach turned green, especially if they rely on it for a portion of their income?

A country outside of the world's economic powers might want financial insurance in the event that the the project causes ecological damage and hurts their economy.

numakerg··on Project Vesta – Mitigating climate change with green sand beaches
I didn't see the cost breakdown [1] mention how much they expect to pay countries for dumping olivine in their beaches/waters. Would a country, especially those near the equator, willingly agree to take part in an experiment like this for free? The referenced papers have explained how the project is safe, but I don't think communities or their representatives will see it that way.

1. https://projectvesta.org/#phaseIV

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