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oa335

1,020 karma · joined June 28, 2020

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oa335··on There are now more ETFs than stocks in the US
100%. i ran a trading desk predicated on this strategy, and know a couple of others who are still successfully running similar strats.
oa335··on There are now more ETFs than stocks in the US
The number of ETFs isn't as relevant as the total % of funds invested in passive funds as opposed to single stocks or active funds.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5259427

> Passive capitalization-weighted index funds now surpass active management in aggregate investor allocations. Flows into passive strategies cause unrelated stocks to move synchronously, undermining diversification and potentially increasing systemic risk. New flows into passive products mechanically overweight overvalued stocks and underweight undervalued stocks due to market-price weighting, exacerbating momentum-driven price distortions. Rebalancing at the stock level to non-price-based anchor weights may mitigate these distortions and enhance long-term returns.

This is likely why large-cap stocks have outperformed over past decade.

oa335··on Green card seekers must leave U.S. to apply, Trump administration says
> I’m not. I have a Bangladeshi sense of the flow of time, I have basically traditional beliefs about family structure, raising children, social obligations to elders, etc.

Why don't you live by your principles and return to Bangladesh? To use your own argument (not mine), your culture is both inferior to the American culture and Americans have voted to not have "your kind" here.

One way or another, you are being disingenuous, either through your words or your actions.

oa335··on Uber’s COO says it’s getting harder to justify money spent on tokenmaxxing
> we'll house the data, enrich it, maintain it, provide fine-grained API access over it tailored to model usage, and you bring the model

isnt this just mcp servers hosted by the saas provider?

oa335··on Italy moves to Airbus A330 tankers
i understand the purpose of the senate and believe that bicameralism is a good idea and populism is generally bad.

you seem to not understand my point so ill give it one more try:

senate was indeed formed as a bulwark against populism, but the founders didnt anticipate a 68 to 1 population difference between the largest and smallest states (california vs. wyoming), nor the vast differences in composition of their populations. when a tiny fraction of the population holds that much disproportionate veto power, the senate no longer checks populism, it actively empowers a specific, rural populist minority to override the majority.

oa335··on Italy moves to Airbus A330 tankers
> It was explicitly created as a way to balance sovereignty of the states against populism, such as that enacted by MAGA or leftists.

that only works if the smaller states are not representative of the larger majority of the population.

instead, nowadays the smaller states are actually over-representative of the populist mass - e.g Wyoming is 80% white.

oa335··on How to convert between wealth and income tax
Yeah, in general the principle is that zakat isn't due on fixed assets, but on any inventory or cash you hold. So its a lot less onerous than a blanket wealth tax.
oa335··on How to convert between wealth and income tax
... you read an awful lot into that comment, I think you are being a bit uncharitable.

Though I agree with many of your points, what I think the OP was gesturing at was the idea that billionaires are more avaricious than the average person; hence we shouldn't be surprised that Paul Graham is wary about paying an effective tax rate that would put him on par with majority of tax payers in this country.

This isn't an new or particularly controversial observation: e.g. "Money never made a man happy yet, nor will it. The more a man has, the more he wants. Instead of filling a vacuum, it makes one." Benjamin Franklin

"The love of money grows as the money itself grows." Juvenal

Having worked for several billionaires and seen them in their day-to-day, those quotes resonate with me.

oa335··on Intro to TLA+ for the LLM Era: Prompt Your Way to Victory
What are the downsides as compared to TLA+?
oa335··on I want to live like Costco people
Costco encapsulates the American Dream; offering quality, value, and fair dealing to upwardly mobile strivers from all backgrounds.
oa335··on California farmers to destroy 420k peach trees following Del Monte bankruptcy
> I was in Iowa a few years ago, and the food is awful. I don’t think the food in Iowa used to be great “100 years ago before modern factory farming,” etc. I suspect it’s always been awful, and people just don’t care about it very much as long as they get the calories they need.

I've observed the same thing; But my theory is taste in food is shaped by how recently a families lineage transitioned to processed foods and industrialized agricultural practices. e.g. I've observed a deterioration in taste in South Asia over the past 20 years, which I attribute to the same effect.

oa335··on Why airlines are always going bankrupt
> U.S. bankruptcy law is a foundational social technology that enables the marvelous world around you to exist.

Can you please expand? This is an expansive claim.

oa335··on First Tesla Semi Rolls Off High-Volume Production Line
> for year 2025" was not a qualification the grandparent poster made.

I interpreted the comment to mean that Tesla model Y is currently the most widely sold car in the world, not historically. model y is less than 10 years old.

i think it shows that tesla is actually able to ship cars at a high volume, which was the point of the thread.

oa335··on First Tesla Semi Rolls Off High-Volume Production Line
https://www.statista.com/statistics/239229/most-sold-car-mod...
oa335··on U.S. to Withdraw 5k Troops from Germany, Pentagon Says
> You can't be rich as a country without having the power to stay rich unless you are a little mountain region country or riding on the coat tails of a country that is.

Countries become rich because of stable, competent institutions, not because they can maintain a military empire.

Ireland, Singapore are both examples of this.

> You will need to protect your supply lines if you are an actor in a globalized world. So you have to become that country if you want to stay independent, and want to be supplied with the goods that you depend on.

Protect supply lines from whom? how are military bases in Turkey, Germany, Poland, etc protecting "supply lines"?

one of the most important supply lines for europe (hydrocarbons from russia) has been stifled for the past 4 years - why havent our bases or military been able to keep it open?

similarly, why are our numerous bases in Middle East failing to protect supply lines?

i would argue that in both those cases, our aggressive military expansion (nato, israel expansion + gulf bases) caused the closure of those critical supply lines.

oa335··on U.S. to Withdraw 5k Troops from Germany, Pentagon Says
> I understand you right you fail to see what a lasting peace and good relationship with allies will do for the country that brokers that peace and you require 'extraordinary evidence' because it is an extraordinary claim? Next up you're going to say that the USA should have never joined World War II or created the Marshall plan in the immediate aftermath, that's a logical extension of that argument since that's universally seen as the launch of 'Pax Americana'.

I don't agree with him a lot of the time but I think his request is reasonable and I share his skepticism about the idea that US military presence and interventions are somehow beneficial to the American's wellbeing, both the median American and the polity as a whole.

why should i not be skeptical? the first order effects of military are inherently destructive - why should i assume that having more military makes anyones lives better? its not obvious at all and requires a better explanation IMO.

oa335··on For first time since World War II, US national debt now larger than its economy
History doesn't repeat but it rhymes. Roman emperors starting with Marcus Aurelius began devaluing their currency to pay for endless war, and to a lesser extent, free bread; i believe that is the principle cause of the decline of Roman empire.
oa335··on Does Postgres Scale?
They can adjust their checkpoint settings to increase throughput further - https://www.postgresql.org/docs/current/wal-configuration.ht...
oa335··on Meta in row after workers who saw smart glasses users having sex lose jobs
in an argument
oa335··on UAE to leave OPEC
> I wouldn't be surprised if the UAE starts scheming to foment within Saudi Arabia next

i think next moves of us-israeli-uae axis will be against Turkey and Qatar. we are already seeing this rhetoric in democratic party and in israel.

oa335··on Iran caused more extensive damage to U.S. military bases than publicly known
> Your view, as a matter of fact, is mainland-filtered copium. Yes, the rich Taiwanese mainlanders who used to dominate Taiwan politics want a return to the past, but native Taiwanese are more populous and have less vested interest in unification with the mainland do not.

Fair enough, and it seems that polls of Taiwanese support this view as well.

oa335··on UAE to leave OPEC
> Would love to read more on this.

Brookings Institute has a series of papers about Islamist movements around the world: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/rethinking-political-isla...

which includes both analyses from Western academics as well as responses from members of Islamist parties.

> It absolutely follows that intolerant populations can systematically elect intolerant leaders who then cause instability.

Intolerant of what, and what do you mean by "instability"? If the ideology of the political parties and institutions reflects that of the (vast) majority of the population, why would we expect "instability"?

Democracy can descend into demagoguery; I believe that occurs when the "people" feel like the state has been captured by an elite (oligarchy) that doesn't represent their interests (i.e. interests of the majority), "intolerant" or not - e.g. Gracchi brothers, Hugo Chavez, etc etc.

oa335··on UAE to leave OPEC
lol yes exactly.

Realism has more way explanatory power in geopolitics than idealism. Idealist explanations are typically incoherent (e.g. above thread).

oa335··on UAE to leave OPEC
true, but there's some evidence that was unintentional. whereas Trump and Israel are openly saying they are targeting bridges, oil infra, economic targets etc.
oa335··on UAE to leave OPEC
> I never claimed this only ever happens in the Middle East.

you said

> Arab democracies are unstable because they will elect Islamists.

whereas my claim is that governments (democracies or not) that run afoul of their local hegemon tend to have a short shelf life. this is not unique to US hegemony.

see: Brezhnev doctrine (USSR), or the canonical example of Athens and Melos from Peloponnesian war

> Rise up for El Generalissimo! Enlist your sons in the blood struggle, that will definitely improve things!" /s Much sexier to be a revolutionary fighting shadowy foreign forces than to actually fix any of your own problems. No, no, tomorrow's problems will be America's fault too.

I'm sorry, you seem triggered by this discussion, it doesn't seem productive to continue on my end.

oa335··on UAE to leave OPEC
"Emirati-Israeli axis"

I'd add the US to that as well. Both the UAE and Israel are highly (practically solely) dependent on US for their military tech and supplies.

oa335··on UAE to leave OPEC
> In the Middle East, there appears to be a pattern of electorates voting for / staging a revolution in favour of Islamists, which either leads to a terrible Islamist regime, or leads to an elite coup, which of course destroys the democracy in the process.

that pattern is hardly unique to middle east/islamists though. look at central/south america. guatemala, chile, brazil etc all had democracies overthrown by "elite" coups.

like almost every instance in the middle east, there is actually a common denominator between these coups... resistance to the US-led order magically seems to invite instability.

oa335··on UAE to leave OPEC
but neither Saudi Arabia nor Afghanistan's leaders were voted in ...

and secular/socialist/monarchic dictatorships have arguably worse effects on their neighbors and citizens - e.g. Saddam, Assad, Nasser, MBZ in UAE, MBS

oa335··on UAE to leave OPEC
i don't think you know much about islamist parties and are just grasping for reasons to justify suppressing democracy in certain places.

ennahada (tunisia), pks (indonesia), jui (pakistan) are all examples of islamist parties that have compromised or reached across the aisle at various points just off the top of my head.

besides, isn't the point of democracy to allow people to be led by those who represent their principles? if they are in power, why should the majority expect their elected leaders to compromise those principles?

oa335··on UAE to leave OPEC
> What civilian infrastructure was deliberately attacked?

Its clear you have only been getting your information from a certain set of sources. a lot of civilian infrastructure has been destroyed in Iran.

One of Israel's goals is to cripple the economy of Iran.

"Israeli leaders, including Defense Minister Israel Katz, have ordered the military to carry out strikes on targets that cause economic blows to the Iranian regime."

"This included a strike on major Iranian gas infrastructure in the country’s south nearly two weeks ago, and strikes on two of Iran’s largest steel factories on Friday. "

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-shifts-to-hitting-irans...

"Missiles also struck one of Iran’s biggest state-run pharmaceutical companies, Tofigh Darou, destroying its production and research and development units, state media said on Tuesday, blaming the strike on Israel. It’s a major producer of anti-cancer drugs and anesthetic in Iran"

https://archive.is/KAtCR

"A century-old medical research centre (Pasteur Institute) set up to fight infectious diseases like plague and smallpox has been heavily damaged in strikes on Tehran"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-securit...

In addition, one of my friends who lives in Iran reported that a dialysis center, a refrigerator factory, a public park (that had "police" in the name), a popular chicken restaurant, and an entire apartment building full of people were each separately targeted and destroyed (apartment building was double tapped, killing rescue workers)

the above is just a small selection, universities, factories, bridges, oil infra has all been targeted as well.

would you consider US Steel factories, universities that do research for the military, factories or companies that make components that go into US weapons, apartment buildings where one military leader lives as military or civilian infrastructure?

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