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ok_computer

403 karma · joined December 3, 2020

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ok_computer··on What does Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse mean for the financial system?
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ok_computer··on What does Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse mean for the financial system?
> consolidated market share,

True, BOC, JPM, Wells Fargo etc.

> and gotten more and more regulations rolled back

False, besides scaling back Dodd Frank please name 2 regulations removed from consumer investment banking or credit or mortgages.

Investment banking isn't what it was in the recent wild west days. Goldman Sachs fell from grace and stuff isn't fast and loose. Its not even cool anymore, investments are risk profile managed algorithmic ETFs. Its a well regulated industry, albeit better regulated in 2010 than now, but better than 2005. I'm sure there all kinds of shady things in IPOs and SPACs and private equity debt but that does not represent the greater consumer exposure public market.

Also, letting all large banks fold in 2008 would have been bonkers. There would not be a viable replacement in time to stop an all out dark ages. Those banks paid back loans plus interest in full. It was a systemic failure and Ben Bernanke stopped a depression and the system was improved instead of failing. Was is fair that wallstreet gets money from the Fed to stay afloat while people lost their homes? Not whatsoever, completely unfair. More could have been done to help out common people like we had in covid relief. But it was still the correct thing to do to keep the lights on. And the recovery period with QE was the longest stretch of growth thanks to the sugar rush of 0-interest debt that will play out to not be the best idea.

Anyway, I wasn't taking a shot at SVB leadership inferring they are naive startups. I'm saying that much of the SP500 are revenue generating profitable companies that do use debt but don't need recurring 20M funding rounds to make payroll. Startups are by and large not a good representation of the greater economy because they are supposed to represent new ideas. The banks customers are totally a risk and cash intensive with no physical capital. That is not representative of the economy.

That's all I'm trying to get at. The parent comment to mine is pretty doom & gloom and making ill founded parallels to 2008 and saying this will be even worse. I don't see how that follows. It does not make sense. We're entering a recession but that doesn't mean complete implosion.

There are a billion things I don't understand about the greater economy and globalization but I want to call out poorly formulated assertions because the narrative above is based in facts. Especially on this site where people give credence to web3 nonsense and trying to pose solutions financial problems that don't exist.

Its a not good situation and concerning. But I think there needs to be compartmentalization to understand what else is at stake.

ok_computer··on What does Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse mean for the financial system?
(I hope this comment doesn’t age poorly.)

Lessons were learned following the 2008 financial crisis to sure up major banking risk exposure. Dodd Frank act was reversed a little but there are regulations and stress test simulations to improve banking system resilience if there is a cash or credit shortage. Who knows how valid some of the assumptions changes in these marginally higher interest rate times but we cannot be in pre-2008 credit swap nonsense.

SVB represents $200B assets and the customers are in large part revenue negative or growing startups. That doesn’t make it Ok but it cannot be representative of the greater economy. I’m sure fintech in personal banking, credit, and mortgages is far more popular than it was in the 2000’s but it by and large does not represent a majority or even large minority of retail banking.

My hope is there isn’t some sneaky financial engineering marvel in large corporate debt that this fringe instability snowballs and we find out we’re back in a state where the market is propped up by sketchy extrapolations of value estimates.

But I don’t think a bank run by a bunch of VCs or startups is a picture of the greater economic engine.

ok_computer··on Clinic to open near Ohio derailment as health worries linger
I think it was an impossible call to make and the product of a bunch of terrible circumstances and prior decisions. Additionally the response team was probably motivated to act instead of wait for the situation to develop unpredictably and they were reading a climbing temperature. If they believed it was avoiding an uncontrolled explosion where the was no idea how the rail car contents would release then it could be the right call in hindsight. I can see not wanting a big plume of that uncombusted stuff releasing, persisting and causing acute and chronic harm. I cannot argue anything about the call to burn it or not that sounds like a terrible choice.

My point is the rush to resume normalcy and choose the risk of false negative reassurance when its clear this is not a well thought out procedure is terrible. Testing for raw components alone neglects the entire set of potential contamination and routes. Also is a one mile radius evacuation adequate for an open burn like that? I don't know what is but it'd be nice to have support to leave for a time if living on the outside margin of "might not die depending on wind direction".

The story coverage in newspapers is decently good I don't think anything is being swept under the rug. But the official response and effort to put the threat in the past seems like damage control to exit the news cycle vs having any concern whatsoever about the people that live there. It is a poor populated area of the country and it is acceptable to open burn a million pounds of chlorinated petrochemicals. I know this happens in different ways under environmental permitting all over the US like in the gulf, etc. so its not unique. Still its terrible.

And the state and local officials are handling the media coverage and disaster response while the US federal government is shooting down multiple balloons out of the air with $400k missiles in the great 2023 balloon wars. It is absurd.

ok_computer··on Clinic to open near Ohio derailment as health worries linger
Air and surface water measurements are mentioned for the train car contents.

Is anyone aware if there is top soil or swipe testing for the train car contents or suspected partial combustion compounds?

That black cloud did not look like the cleanest burn. Isn’t it naive to burn a mixture then test for the fuel in the aftermath and say look no fuel here there must be no contamination?

What a mess.

ok_computer··on Making macOS Apps Uninstallable
question:has anyone succeeded in uninstalling kite (python autocomplete for spyder) at all locations.

I was tricked into selecting to install it one time installing anaconda/spyder. I’ve since removed all of that including anaconda and followed the now scrubbed uninstall instructions on their (defunct kite’s) website.

However a .kite folder keeps showing up in my ~/

I’ve deleted tons of times and searched thru /library and ~/library

I resorted to locking .kite hoping that if some hidden process were using it it won’t have write access anymore. But admittedly I have no idea what’s creating this dir and the reason for it or if I defeated it by locking that .kite folder down.

Thx

ok_computer··on Jupyterlab Desktop
I will drop IPython.embed() break points along an execution path to debug with variable inspection. I tried pdb earlier and attribute to user error on my part not really getting it.
ok_computer··on FYI: LLVM-project repo has exceeded GitHub upload size limit (2022)
I'll admit I've done this early on in history of a pet project repo scrubbing a credential :/, not implementing git-lfs though.

I knew that rewrites compromise the history. It is low stakes and I didn't want to allocate a new repo to start anew, just learned my lesson there.

I'm mostly curious about git-lfs as large file viability or it should be avoided and plan for large build artifacts to host elsewhere.

ok_computer··on US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast
That's an interesting aspect to this story to me. Maybe it was truly based on intel and the geological survey was a farce to justify the facilities targeting. That wouldn't surprise me, there's a ton of lore around WWII and military activity in general.

Or maybe the US government chooses to fund all areas of research, like mineral surveys, in the hopes they can call on a field of knowledge repository to use in a war machine.

I'd like to believe there is a soil library that staff were doing microscope slide searches late into the night.

ok_computer··on US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast
Geologists were able to reduce the search area for the origin of these balloons using the mineral composition of sand in the sand bags.

The airforce then bombed hydrogen generating facilities nearby the suspected launch sites.

Section offense and defense

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fu-Go_balloon_bomb

ok_computer··on FYI: LLVM-project repo has exceeded GitHub upload size limit (2022)
Hi, I’m curious here would git-lfs (large file storage) work along with rewrite the history to remove the larger files and artifacts?

    git filter-branch --index-filter "git rm -rf --cached --ignore-unmatch /path/to/file" HEAD

https://stackoverflow.com/questions/43762338/how-to-remove-f...

Or is git-lfs generally avoided for good reason? Or so all the changes and not necessarily large files cause this repo to exceed the limit?

ok_computer··on Making chloroform so I can sleep better at night [video]
> Joe Blow buying DCM paint stripper

That's what gets me too. I cannot believe how much apparent threat there is in popular media about getting cancer from ocean straws (I'm not a fan of polymer waste and single use but still) and people go to any hardware store buy cheap latex 'water borne' paint with a nasty ether & NMP, fertilizer, weed killer, TCPM paint stripper, new carpeting or furniture on a recurring basis, vinyl siding and flooring, and synthetic fabrics. Then turn around and think 'lol corporations are bad for making CD cases or whatever someone should really do something about that' or vilifying modern production technology that we've become dependent on for high value battery, cars, chips, and medical devices. Like how are advanced economies supposed to function if they lose capability to produce necessary inputs in-house to an extent.

Anyway hardware stores are full of environmentally and health questionable materials, its not right. I think it has to do with societies' tendency to despise labor.

Good point though, I digressed, I think the hill to climb to start something like one of these experiments is enough to dissuade most viewers from repeating.

ok_computer··on Making chloroform so I can sleep better at night [video]
I'm not offended by the volume he's producing, just the act of doing low value chemistry work at home making something gross, it will get repeated by less capable viewers in uncontrolled environments.

On the other hand, I always thought things like anarchist cookbook and erowid type stuff is great for knowledge sharing. I don't think there should be a monopoly on knowing how to do stuff but this is different, maybe the youtube viewership monetization, I cannot place my finger on it.

I'm saying this is a dumb synthesis to show off, there is no value in the product, if anything it is a disposal liability, and it's in a home lab. One mistake and you get a chlorine cloud or an organic solvent spill in a residential setting.

It glorifies understanding where the electrons or protons jump but its super basic. Like how hungry for validation do you need to be to show off your recent degree or internet recipe scavenging.

Solvents are commoditized. Chlorinated solvents need to be phased out. Whereas, in industrial settings that are vilified for justifiable reasons there is increasing scrutiny on any solvents introduction to processes especially chlorinated types for good reason.

I'm saying it's a dumb thing to do and totally misses the mark for educational videos.

That guy who makes chips in his garage with nasty etch gasses, high voltage magnatrons, photoresist, and projector litho I'll admit is really cool and impressive but may pose a greater neighbor threat if a mishap happens.

ok_computer··on Making chloroform so I can sleep better at night [video]
Even doing this with a chemistry background is incredibly irresponsible. There’s more than personal know how at work in industrial and academic labs. Fume hood stacks well above grade and incinerators and permits or registration. Plus the waste disposal issue and byproducts. This brand of youtube entertainment is super bad. Same thing with people extracting mercury or whatever. Like what is the best end case: you’ve done bench work in your neighborhood and are a point emitter of byproducts and create a product that have no real end use. Chlorinated solvents are no joke and making a carcinogen for youtube views is beyond dumb. I’d call the cops if I saw my neighbor doing some home cooking like this it’s not well thought out and just selfish and irresponsible.
ok_computer··on Why Fortran is a scientific powerhouse
However, there is a strong first principles model on greenhouse gases effects in the atmosphere: CO2, Methane, and others. All produced as byproducts of agriculture and industrial revolution technologies with ballpark accounting going back to 1800s. In addition there are mass balances accounting for carbon uptake by biomass from satellite imagery.

This isn’t a shot in the dark using excel linest(atmospheric _co2, global_average_temperature) trend plots and calling it a day.

There is sound first principles model to solar thermal energy retention. It may not predict the global average temperature in the next 15 years within 0.2C but you have got to be kidding me bringing up that intro to statistics caveat “correlation!=causation”.

Like do you know how inaccurate most physics modeling is and still tends to be useful?

ok_computer··on Ask HN: I'm 40 and feel my mental ability declining. Programming seems harder.
I second the idea to draw out in a simplified flow chart like visio or excel boxes or graph paper. Nothing fancy, no ISO standard schematic, just journal sketches. The context being not the entire system design but for a single call what is the flow. That helps me in the weeds and out of the editor thinking. Also it may be 2h to do it for a simple case but I’ve found spending that drafting time helps think about the problem in entirety and saves time in the editor.
ok_computer··on Strange Attractors
I had to think about this for a bit I've studied dynamical systems with chaos but am nowhere near proficient in the math.

Around system fixed points there are stable and unstable manifolds. There can also be apparently (linearized) center maifolds where there is no growth or decay but that simply isn't true because it is so hard to for an eigenvalue to be exactly 0.000....0 (smooth time) or 1.000...0 for discrete maps. So you have to perform a center manifold reduction to inspect the fixed point behavior in higher order terms x^{1,2,3,..} y^{1,2,3...}, xy^{1,2,3,...}, x^{1,2,3,...}y, x^2*y^{1,2,3,...} etc. all linear combinations for the basis, in R^2 that gives so many combinations.

Around these fixed points in unstable maps the manifolds themselves will intersect in other places than the fixed point which is confusing to me (homoclinic tangle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homoclinic_connection). But the chaotic map itself holds uniqueness of solution such that f(x_n): x_n->x_{n+1} and f^-1(x_{n+1}): x_{n+1}->x_n. This is key: deterministic systems follow uniqueness of solutions. You can trace time or steps backwards to a distinct t(0) or x_0. Without this the analysis does not work, then maybe dealing with probabilistic systems but these strange attractors arise from deterministic systems. I don't know much about probability.

Anyway I think we're not necessarily disagreeing with each other just talking past certain really interesting points.

What I think is the most conceptually simple way to visualize chaotic behavior that leads to strange attractors in R^n is the logistic map https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_map to visualize a R^1 system with one parameter that can cause bifurcation, phase doubling, then chaotic regions. The R^n analog to this would be a parameter set that arises in a fixed set {} instead of a fixed point x_o that the system will eventually evolve to. See double hinged pendulum as a simple chaotic system that evolves to a chaotic state. I think the system bifurcation is what you are alluding to where the roots split from one to two states and so forth.

Anyway, dynamical systems is interesting and it would be amazing to see what further is applied from it in 200 years. Its a wild field because it quickly devolves into algebra, set theory, fractals and topology. To pick up on the front you need to understand so much deep theory that is over my head.

Anyway cool stuff I love seeing these type articles here way more than the next best css framework or whatever.

ok_computer··on The world of pipe fittings
Bsp, Npt, goop (yuck!), and teflon tape are all inferior to Swage. Cold weld and reuseable but it is a trade in itself to fit and bend to place.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compression_fitting

Working in labs on fluid and vacuum lines (<1in diameter) this is the way.

If only it wouldn’t cost as much as the house in fittings + tube to hardpipe stainless fittings on our water supply lines.

I stayed in a hostel hotel in Munich, DE with hard piped bathroom water lines. I was impressed and think they must have been in service for 30-50 years.

ok_computer··on Strange Attractors
Wrt:

>>There might be two states that lead to one, but never one that leads to two

There is constraint of uniqueness in deterministic differential equation solutions or chaotic maps so even if two flow trajectories appear to converge, for instance orbiting around the Lorenz equation butterfly solution, they are distinct and trace back to a given set of initial conditions.

That’s the cool thing about dynamic systems, it’s just a set of parameters that cause something akin to numerical instability but is a property of the algebraic roots in that parameter range.

ok_computer··on Employers should prioritize retention over hiring, study suggests
Though it may cost more, spreading functional knowledge across a greater base of people would be more resilient. Even if a company needs to pay an individual 10x salary consulting for a year, it would be in their long term best interest to spread a fraction of that knowledge across a larger employee base and document what is tangible. There is a limit (different for different people) across which an individual cannot cognitively support an operation. With years more growth every person would eventually reach their personal limit or lose interest. It helps to have teams of people that are smart enough to work through new problems and document procedures, playbooks, current states and retrospective reports and rely on institutional processes to maintain a coherent operation. Sometimes money isn’t the singular factor at work.
ok_computer··on An Accident at SpaceX
With high tech manufacturing you’d want to compare against mature higher risk industries such as oil and gas, chemical, pharmaceutical manufacturing, food manufacturing, and semiconductors, plus military noncombat operations and military contractors.

There are ideally engineering controls and standard operating procedures or documented deviations, even in research or pilot facilities. Construction and agriculture, apart from the design phase (like residential crafts, HVAC, industrial electricians or cement etc) do not have the same workplace standards as an industrial facility or field site with cohabitation of engineering, operations, and contractors. There are always exceptions with safe contractors and bad facilities.

If you are routinely testing a pressure relief valve and there is not a documented procedure around this or a permit addressing limiting exposure to that energy that might be a problem in retrospect. Ideally, industries would operate in good faith of regulations and not just outside the envelope of punitive measures. But regulatory stuff is complicated and specific depending on location. I simply wanted to point out it would be helpful to compare incident statistics against common risk profile industries.

ok_computer··on “When are we going to use this in our everyday life?” (2017)
Probabilities under normal curves or any shape probability distribution function are measured as areas under the curve. It helps to have an integral calculus intuition for comparing p(0.1<x<0.5) to p(0.5<x<0.6). It helps to have a multi variate vector distance interpretation of length for error and variance magnitude.
ok_computer··on Software I’m thankful for (2021)
Sublime text

Terminus

Zsh

Powershell (verbosity isn’t terrible!)

SQLAlchemy (connection engine + docs)

Git

Ssh

IPython as a debugger shell

ok_computer··on Hydrogen battery startup says it has $700M order backlog
Ammonia as a hydrogen store air+methane+temp and high high pressure. Pump liquid uphill as another option for potential energy minus evaporation losses and friction. Geothermal as year round steady state thermal process, I don’t know how those scale capacity.

My question about completely off grid housing and renewable sources and energy stores is that an isolated small scale unit will assuredly operate industrial processes at a lower efficiency than a centralized industrial facility, barring transmission loss. Economy of scale is real for thermodynamic costs and monetary cost. So any gas compression or thermal cycle or liquid pumps is self serving with higher personal capital cost and cost of run and maintenance reliability. And if enough of your neighbors do it it’s “renewable” but nowhere near sustainable.

How to turn sunlight into methane? Electrochemistry and membranes or catalysts? That seems like not a worthwhile question facing us if there is earnest need for energy transition for sustainability.

If you’re wealthy enough to have an off grid ranch or cabin and don’t want the baggage of society to replenish your winter energy needs then purchase in W texas and build a boutique diesel rig and refinery. Or purchase a bunch of land with fast growing pines and run a logging operation. If you want to live off grid but can manage paying money for society goods and services run diesel generators with long term fuel oil contracts and rig up a decarbonization unit on the exhaust stack.

Localized next gen storage isn’t a pressing matter in my opinion. Especially that benefiting anti-social people with means to live off grid but comfortably. If you have millions of emissions points it’s harder to control than a centralized regulated plant.

ok_computer··on Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis
I agree any of those blogging sites would be a better format, even though I'm not a Medium fan. He's also listed Board of Governors Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology at Rutgers and I understand this isn't their official position but there could be a faculty page or some other publication or editorial site.

And he could link to the blog article from his tweet. The downside is it wouldn't have as great viral potential but I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. Any page with all the bullet points in one place would serve better than an ephemeral twitter thread. If his followers regard him they may follow the link.

ok_computer··on Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis
Hi, content aside, tweet chains posts are terrible to read on any device. And twitter bugs me to log in to track me through the browser.

To all the people who think this is the best way to deliver information to their audience please stop. 1/1

ok_computer··on Search PDFs with Transformers and Python Notebook
Mathpix snip for pdf to Latex is excellent. Thank you for the free tier. It is helpful transcribing pdf math homework sets to use in the solution document without bugging the instructor for their source.
ok_computer··on Four Tet wins royalty battle over streaming music
I’m happy to hear it went his way. He’s deserving and I was surprised Domino pulled his back catalog in the dispute. I enjoyed his back catalog and hope he sees income for it.
ok_computer··on A new heat engine with no moving parts is as efficient as a steam turbine
I just want to point out that compressing gas takes a non-zero amount of work. Compressing gas to increase temperature to use temperature to make energy would be better spent using the compressing work directly to make electricity.
ok_computer··on Nearly 1k mysterious strands revealed in Milky Way’s center
I like these two from the authors of the Laniakea super cluster paper in 2014

Nature: https://youtu.be/rENyyRwxpHo

Contributing Author: https://youtu.be/Ayj4p3WFxGk

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