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protastus

1,736 karma · joined November 4, 2018

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protastus··on The Most-Used Mathematical Algorithm Idea in History (2016)
Every single article I've read by Wolfram makes detours to focus on his own accomplishments (e.g. awards or appointments), tied to the main story by extremely tenuous, almost non-existent connections. And there are always multiple references to cellular automata.

I will gladly admit I like his storytelling and the anecdotes are interesting but I have to ignore the detours to make it to the end.

protastus··on A man who saves forgotten cats in Fukushima's nuclear zone
This is heading down false dichotomy territory.

I can drive for miles and not see a single solar panel. I will be open to talking about nuclear when the US is full of solar panels and wind turbines.

protastus··on A man who saves forgotten cats in Fukushima's nuclear zone
The order of magnitude of Fukushima cleanup costs is $1 trillion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_disaster_cleanup#Cos...

Nobody should be surprised that losses of this magnitude are fresh in our minds, only 10 years later.

Chernobyl and Fukushima were massive disasters with long-term consequences. Exclusion zones were created. Many families lost their homes forever. Animals were abandoned and died. Should we minimize these problems or pretend they didn't happen?

protastus··on Anime is booming, so why are animators living in poverty?
> A world class pianist makes 25 to 75k per show. Far more than any developer lazy or not.

Even if we picked such an outlier, the bookings would be sparse.

A mediocre SWE in the Bay Area has a paycheck every 2 weeks over the course of decades.

> And someone majoring in math can go as far as someone majoring in engineering

The choice in my personal story was about becoming a professional mathematician, not majoring in math and then getting a job in engineering. The latter in fact is what I did.

protastus··on Anime is booming, so why are animators living in poverty?
A lazy and mediocre software developer gets paid more than a world class concert pianist who obsessively practices 10 hours a day.

The world doesn't need pianists like it needs software engineers. This demand was also different 200 years ago.

This is basic economics that not enough people seem to understand when they choose a job. Or maybe they do understand but want to ignore the problem early in their careers.

As a student in my 20s, my love for mathematics exceeded my love of engineering. I studied both and was good at both, but never went far beyond undergrad level mathematics due to job opportunities.

Sometimes in life we need to clearly separate what to do as an amateur (for the love) and as a professional (for the money). Sometimes the interests align, and if they do, good for you! But it's important to be honest with yourself about goals and planning.

protastus··on The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed
Brazil's purchase from Saab includes technology transfer.

The United States bid on this contract with the F/A-18E. I can't imagine the U.S. approving the sale of F-35 technology to Brazil at any reasonable price.

protastus··on The U.S. Air Force just admitted the F-35 stealth fighter has failed
> The F-35 is a Ferrari, Brown told reporters last Wednesday

It became a Ferrari due to feature creep and an enormously complex and expensive technology stack. The F-16 is not a Ferrari and NATO needs a multirole single-seat fighter that is affordable to purchase and fly.

My most charitable view is the F-35 became a jobs program for Lockheed Martin and subcontractors. People were trained and (allegedly) useful technology was developed. But the price tag appears unreasonable by an order of magnitude, and this puts no accountability on the program management or people signing the checks.

As for arguments about technology trickling down from the F-35:

* The argument needs evidence. I've seen no attempt to identify the value of the technologies developed against the time and money spent.

* Too much time was surely spent on integration and one-off details specific to the F-35 platform, and this is sunk cost unlikely to be recovered in future platforms designed by new teams.

protastus··on Texas was minutes away from months-long power outages, officials say
At the scale hypothesized here (major substations, transmission lines), even in Texas.

Large equipment that's hard to replace was at one point designed and certified against IEEE and IEC standards applicable to the global industry, with high safety margin, modeling harsh (to a point, catastrophic) operating conditions. Far beyond the requirements of consumer electronics. And there is no reason to believe a manufacturer capable of this scale (think ABB) would design/build/test a substation transformer from a playbook intended for a global market, and then execute to a lower standard because the customer is in Texas.

For clarity, I am not referring to small stuff. Power pole transformers will occasionally blow up. But those get quickly replaced or bypassed without months-long outages.

protastus··on Texas was minutes away from months-long power outages, officials say
"The worst case scenario: Demand for power overwhelms the supply of power generation available on the grid, causing equipment to catch fire, substations to blow and power lines to go down."

Technically correct yet hypothetical bullshit.

Earlier in my career I worked in this industry designing automation equipment. A substation has more than enough protection relays with redundancies designed to shed load, turn on auxiliary cooling, trigger systems down the line, etc. The automation is far from rocket science, and reduces to comparing against thresholds and protecting the equipment or circuits as appropriate. Logic that matters defaults to a disconnected state, such that if the safety itself fails then the system is put in its most conservative mode, even if that means stuff turns off.

It would take work and massive negligence to override multiple layers of automation (software, firmware and physical connections), so based on the information provided I'm not giving the operators here any special credit. No blue ribbon to the guy whose job was to watch a circuit breaker trip.

protastus··on Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught
> quite a bit has changed since 2006, specifically in the financial reform bill of 2010 and the jobs act of 2012

> not a lot, but a bit

I don't know who you could persuade with such lack of conviction...

protastus··on Transfer Stocks Out of Your Robinhood Account
> One of Robinhood’s innovations was that they gave everyone a margin account, but hid the details.

In the old days one would have to formally request margin. Then the broker would give you stern warnings, have you sign a form, mail you a nice booklet explaining margin, options and shorting. I assumed it was a legal requirement, but maybe not?

protastus··on Robinhood is said to draw on bank credit lines amid tumult
It strikes me as awfully naive to simultaneously: * accept RH's statements with no evidence and zero knowledge of their reserves and cash flow. * ignore RH's conflict of interest. Specifically, that RH sells user trading data and that Citadel, which has a huge short position in GME, is a major customer of the data.
protastus··on We are sending more foster kids to prison than to college
Adding to what others mentioned: the US is a terrible country to be poor in. Other countries (even in the 3rd world) have safety nets where the poor can find support for very basic needs (food and healthcare) before resorting to crime.
protastus··on YouTube bans Steve Bannon's podcast channel
> Arguably, it took election results. Easier to do what is right when the wind blows the right way.

That's why valor only exists in the presence of opposition.

Facebook, Twitter, Google and AWS had 4-6 years to make the same choice made in the last few days. Yet they refused, again and again.

protastus··on Microsoft Designing Its Own Chips for Servers, Surface PCs
> Is there a world where Intel basically admits defeat and tries to become a major ARM player?

These major strategy shifts require enormous courage, support and trust at the executive level, because they represent cannibalizing an existing (real) part of the business for the promise of future profits in a business that does not yet exist.

Kodak is a textbook example. Execs refused to pivot to digital cameras and associated products, because this would compete with the enormously profitable (and internally powerful) film business.

protastus··on Emails show Navy's 'UFO' patents went through significant internal review
Science requires tests for demonstration and refutation. Things that don't describe the real world are outside the realm of science.

Ideas are a dime a dozen, especially if they're as simple as imagining matter being built out of tiny blocks or disease being caused by tiny invisible things.

protastus··on Emails show Navy's 'UFO' patents went through significant internal review
Precisely... We're only discussing this because the Navy CTO got personally involved with the USPTO. This involvement apparently led to the review process being bypassed/relaxed.

Based on the insanity (why try to patent this?), I suspect the author is a kook who convinced non-experts (e.g., patent attorney) to create this patent application, with no effective internal peer review. The author's colleagues and managers either lack the specialization in the field to call B.S., or decided to stay out of it because a patent application is not worth the drama.

The oddity here is still the involvement of the CTO. Who I assume is far detached from the actual research, lacks the expertise to review, and trusted the author's claims.

protastus··on How to Make Your Code Reviewer Fall in Love with You
This is good guidance to junior devs. I see these issues frequently from the reviewer side.

The title is super creepy though, so is the claim that "your reviewer will literally fall in love with you". I review code from my team every day, including code written by young engineers, male and female. I can't point them to this.

protastus··on Q2 2020 Update
Too many automakers have claimed to be investing in EVs yet delivered nothing of merit or long-term value.

Tesla's market cap is crazy, but is a reflection of having actual products.

protastus··on U.S. backs down in fight with Harvard, MIT over student visas
The backup worked this time.

This is akin to a safety system taking over and restoring stability, despite a major component failure. From the outside, things "worked" but backups are designed for extraordinary and rare circumstances, not for continuous use.

protastus··on Soviet Posters
For me it's a combination of extraordinary achievements in scientific fields, a very distinctive art aesthetic and the promotion of an ascetic life. Even the well connected aristocracy lived plainly by western standards. I'm inspired by the ideal of success through sheer determination and ingenuity, against all odds.

Having known folks who lived in the USSR and modern Russia, I recognize the romantic elements are the effect of powerful propaganda. In reality, people were burdened by not being able to meet basic needs and were afraid of their government. Engineering was done under the barrel of a gun.

Romantic elements aside, I think we can all recognize the USSR was responsible for remarkable accomplishments, ranging from sublime to deeply horrifying.

protastus··on Wind turbine blades can’t be recycled, so they’re piling up in landfills
Fiberglass is a composite that contains a lot of resin. It's not pure glass.
protastus··on Facebook's PR feels broken
Feel free to replace oil with whatever dominant energy source you'd prefer, for your timeline of choice. I think the core argument still holds.

To elaborate: my problem with the Facebook <-> Oil Company analogy is the magnitude mismatch in the utility axis. Facebook's operating niche describes very specific solutions for social interaction, in a space saturated with stronger and very enjoyable alternatives, some as old as humanity itself.

I think the scale might work out in the toxicity axis though.

protastus··on Did you ever need to run a piece of C# code on Windows 3.11?
"Turns out the object files produced by the CoreRT ahead of time compiler from 2020 can still be linked with the linker that shipped with Visual C++ 2.0 in 1994."

This really blew my mind.

protastus··on Facebook's PR feels broken
Human connection can be had in many alternative ways, with a lot less drama and controversy.

Reading these posts full of hyperbole, one would think human society couldn't exist without Facebook.

protastus··on Facebook's PR feels broken
Oil so useful that modern society would collapse without it.

Facebook is not meeting a core need. It's peddling something entirely optional to society. At best it provides entertainment value, while being extremely addictive and dangerous.

Facebook is like crack.

protastus··on Statement about the 480M animals killed in NSW bushfires since September
Someone else addressed the false dichotomy which is an obvious problem with your argument.

But for the sake of completeness, let's discuss vegetarians specifically. I don't know where you got the 98% number for meat-eaters, but it's not correct.

Worldwide stats: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_by_country#Demog... US stats: https://news.gallup.com/poll/267074/percentage-americans-veg...

Most vegetarians give up food for ethical and animal rights reasons (I'll leave the easy to find sources as an exercise for the reader).

Vegetarians and vegans are frequently reminded of animal suffering -- a visit to the grocery store or a look at a restaurant menu is all it takes. So in effect you've reduced to "no one" a 5% slice of the population (in the U.S.) which repeats the same principled decision on a daily basis. That's a lot of people to call "no one".

protastus··on Statement about the 480M animals killed in NSW bushfires since September
> But no one seems to care about _those_ animals.

This is demonstrably false.

protastus··on The Nobel Peace Prize 2019
How is it not? The IPCC models predict a > 4°C average temperature increase for the business-as-usual scenario. This is means billions of people migrating across national boundaries and/or dead, extinction of most species, a dramatic reduction in farm land, tropical rainforests ceasing to exist. I doubt humanity's technological advances can be sustained when we can't even feed ourselves.

Even a 2°C average increase is very, very bad, with intense weather events every year, countries like India not being able to support their population density, tropical rainforests turning into savannahs. It is also a mass extinction scenario.

protastus··on Collapse OS
Climate models indicate it's not too late to avoid a 2°C average temperature increase by 2100 if our energy matrix and heavy industries (concrete, steel and fertilizers) move away from fossil fuels. This takes political conviction and government policy, which in turn requires correct understanding of the situation.

"it's too late" is a dangerous statement because it suggests actions no longer matter. And if no action is taken, several climate models project >4 °C average warming. The majority of the planet will be become uninhabitable at the current human density levels, with billions of people having to relocate and/or die.

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