259 karma · joined June 15, 2017
Disclaimer: I don't know whether this makes Bancor great.
As Shiller demonstrates and you even agree to, home prices track inflation over the long term. Further, Shiller -- in Irrational Exuberance -- shows that this is largely because of the money some owners reinvest in keeping their homes modern, so this isn't even a passive tracking of inflation, on average.
The arguments about finite land mass, etc, have been said for decades and I suspect one of two things is true: (1) It's wrong: Manhattan continues to build vertically and while it has a high average rent, the median and lower quantiles are actually much lower than on the West Coast, for example. (2) It's already priced by the market.
Finally, stocks also perform very well in high-inflation environments, so this isn't unique to property. The one difference is that most people have 5-to-1 leverage on their homes, so they enjoy outsized gains, but this is a risk as much as a benefit.
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In the US, Amazon Prime has something like 80% penetration into households making >= $100k/year. This move into Whole Foods reaffirms this focus on high-income households, where convenience is often as large a factor as costs.
My hunch is that Amazon has been a massive positive in aggregate, but poor households have been negatively impacted by Amazon, taking into account loss of jobs, lowering of wages, and some positive lower costs for goods.
So far, none of those has happened and it remains to be seen if they will. If they don't, I don't expect a market decline, but just a smaller total cumulative growth since November that has nothing to do with Trump's election or the general agenda I outlined above.
Maybe what you're thinking of is the fact that it's deflationary unlike fiat: there's a finite number of coins that will ever be created. In other words, if you own exactly one dollar, over time, the percentage of total dollars you own will decrease, whereas with bitcoin, one bitcoin represents a constant fraction of the total bitcoin that will be created. This says nothing about how many gallons of milk one dollar or one bitcoin will buy you though.
Snap is a volatile play: there's a high chance, maybe bigger than 50%, that it never becomes profitable, as they warn, and there's some small chance it becomes extremely profitable. The real question is, what's the net present expected value?