randomsearch

I'll never forget the day someone on the subway shouted "I can't believe character X dies!"

Spoiler! Maybe edit

Don’t think this is the problem.

I think it’s an allocation of resources problem.

Pre 80s a lot of the best and brightest worked in engineering.

Post 80s they went into finance and then tech. The latter a mixed bag - brought us Google maps etc but sadly mostly focused on selling ads.

That’s the risk I see. We either need to change incentives or change culture to get back to a focus on progress / exploration rather than exploitation.

> The entire crypto market is a drop in the bucket. It could all go to zero tomorrow and not have any significant impact on anything.

That's what I used to think, until I began to see how connected it was to other parts of the economy. Once financial institutions get involved, you just don't know how connected that system is anymore.

> bootstrappers react first,

Interesting! What is it they react to?

I agree VCs react to the markets and/or anything that is likely to affect them.

Not hovering, gradually dropping.

Crashes are not instantaneous. They occur in patches.

You’re just way down the domino chain.

VCs react first, in the most savvy and farsighted places. That’s why we’re seeing symptoms already.

There is literally a geographical delay. Things like house price crashes take time to spread. The more remote you are, the less connected you are to the global economy. Scotland is relatively isolated.

The tide has gone out, make plans.

Yet.

Crashes are not instantaneous.

Crypto alone is easily a dot com sized scandal.

Cheap cash has led to a lot of dysfunctional and gigantic industries, eg food delivery.

We are nowhere near the bang yet.

They’re not saying “don’t educate yourself and take advantage of your privileges”, but “school as we know it sucks and I could have done a lot more with the time.” At least, that seems like the generous reading.

Yes, looking back I cannot believe I did not just walk out of high school each day. I could have headed to a library and learnt a lot more in a fraction of the time. I could have become incredibly physically fit with the remaining time, or improved my guitar playing.

I guess I just didn’t have the confidence to think - well, actually, this is stupid and walking out is a smart thing to do.

This is whataboutism. Just because people die in other unnecessary ways does not justify allowing them to die in a particular unnecessary way.

Coinbase has _everything_ to do with Crypto, and that is precisely my point.

You’re at Point A and you need to get to Point B, and to do so you need cash.

If a powerful politician cared enough, they could take everything you own. BTC won't save you from tyranny.

> This is trivially falsifiable: blockchains are being used to facilitate illegal transactions.

He literally makes this point in the article.

Aye, in theory, but in practice technology has to fit into social context and coinbase is the result you get.

If you don’t like the result, you need to redesign the technology so it works within the real world that exists. And it don’t.

Possibly the greatest missed opportunity for a good pun I’ve seen this year.

> Scotland's deficit is persistent

Yes, persistent (like the UK's) but not consistent as you implied.

9.2% and 20%+ is a hell of a spread to start cherry picking from.

More wisely, I would make my long-term economic decisions based not on the consequences of Tory governance, but on the potential upsides offered by managing the Scottish economy according to its own priorities.

Poe's law

Banks are insanely risk averse. VC fundraising can be faster, simpler, and is possible when banks won’t go near you.

Same as communism.

I don’t think it’s just about the easy money. I think it’s about confidence and a bubble. Crypto is the biggest bubble of all, and everyone knows a bubble is going to pop. It lasts until the big guys lose their nerve and start pulling out, which is what we’re seeing now. They’re losing their nerve because they can see the economic tsunami coming from a variety of directions.

I’m concerned that the decadence of the west has now led to a series of get rich schemes that create bubble after bubble, providing successive paper booms that are bailed out by governments. The problem is that the consequences of each bail out accumulates, so this broader cycle seems itself unsustainable.

Western economies need to get back to real wealth creation. A good test of that is - can your economy solve real physical problems? Can it feed itself? Can it produce what you need in a pandemic? Are there goods and services that are universally in demand over the long term, which you produce better than anyone else?

It’s like growth of GDP has become this silly KPI that our governments obsess over whilst ignoring what’s making that happen. You can grow GDP by destroying the environment or running a Ponzi scheme, but what you really care about is the underlying strength of the economy.

The U.K. was heavily exposed by covid, in terms of its manufacturing capability and its managed response. We looked weak and disorganised. Now we need to learn from that and focus on growing a diverse and solid economy that is powerful and flexible enough to respond properly to challenges like the energy price hikes.

But I suspect the next bubble will grow just like crypto and our government will continue to pretend everything is ok.

Google is a solid business with a bright future.

If they actually worked out their cloud offering then it would be even brighter.

Crypto is not comparable to companies like Google. If you’re looking for tech companies that might suffer, you’re looking for one trick ponies that can’t innovate - maybe look at Facebook.

Google has a strong focus on engineering and academic smarts. That has big downsides that might prevent them from making truly great user-centred products, but it’s also a robust philosophy that will ensure that they endure. I expect Google to be around in 2100. Facebook no. Coinbase absolutely not.

Anyone thinking this is like 2017 and hodling or investing on that basis needs to pay a lot more attention the global economy.

This is definitely false in many cases.

Source: I’ve worked on both.

I think you’re blindly applying standard process to an exceptional situation. In politics, anything is possible, it depends solely on the circumstances and incentives involved.

If England make it impractical for Scotland to adopt the pound, then the EU will welcome them with open arms into the euro. That’s just how the world works, states act in their own interests and rules bend as and when needed (as rules on euro membership have frequently been bent in the past).

The Spanish threat was real last time. This situation is now completely different and would not set a precedent for Catalonia (unless Spain decides to leave the EU!!!)

Yes the border would be a real problem, in the long term mostly for England.

My point being, that scaremongering about Scotland not being fast tracked backed into the EU is very similar to the false arguments used at the referendum.

This is a country that has already been in the EU, was dragged out against its wishes, and now wants to rejoin. It will not be a normal accession process.

Ignoring that fact, the EU has a huge political incentive to ease Scotland’s re entry wrt the English situation.

Ironically, I expect it will be England that ensures the fast tracking by making it impractical for Scotland to retain the pound, forcing them to adopt the euro.

True, but it would have the option of importing from the EU tariff free instead.

England would have no such option.

> Scotland is assuming the EU would want them

Why on earth wouldn't they want an english-speaking nation with great natural resources and a political establishment that is generally cooperative and open? Scotland has historically had much greater ties with Europeans than England.

> what does Scotland have?

Gas, oil (rather handy still), agriculture - forestry, fisheries etc., finance, universities, geopolitical advantages.

> Scotland doesn't need independence, it needs a better government for the whole of the UK, but with the SNP in power in Scotland, it makes it hard for the UK to have any other government but the tories.

Another way of phrasing this is: Scotland will never get the government it wants unless it leaves the UK.