ren_engineer

and based on how ChatGPT itself was built after seeing how customers were using their API, I'd be willing to bet that OpenAI will simply copy the most popular ones with an "official" version. Developers are going to act as free R&D for OpenAI again

my take is that even without significant improvements over the current level of LLMs you are going to see significant impact on jobs and society over the coming years. There's so much low hanging fruit just by improving the UI around the existing models, I've seen prototypes that can automate a huge amount of grunge work and common manual workflows that office workers do every day. They just need to be integrated at the web browser or OS level so they can be used across apps and have some ability to preview/rollback any changes via human sanity check in the cases the AI agent messes up. Microsoft and Apple can destroy most of these AI startups by streamlining the workflow, Microsoft is already rolling stuff out. Apple really needs to back one of the open source models to support their on-device privacy message and include it with their devices as an improved Siri

and all of this is assuming we don't see the AGI exponential model improvement a lot of the AI bros hype up. If we continue to see improvements on the level of GPT-2 to GPT-3 to GPT-4, then the economy as we know it changes forever. I've already seen research prototypes using LLMs to do automated reinforcement learning and optimization for robotics, so you could rapidly see automation there as well

cell phones were a proven product by the time the iPhone came out, Apple just made a way better one. VR is still unproven beyond enthusiasts at this point, so it's a bigger risk of failure in my opinion

>multiple monitors

so do I, haven't looked too deeply into Apple Vision honestly. My post was just conjecture on the most viable use case short term. there was an HN thread discussing it, seems like it would come down to how well Apple can do eye tracking to dynamically give higher resolution where you are looking - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37037563

for me it just comes down to being an ergonomic improvement over my laptop alone while traveling. If it can do that, I'd buy one and write it off as a business expense

>With Mac Virtual Display, users can even bring the powerful capabilities of their Mac into Vision Pro, creating an enormous, private, and portable 4K display, ideal for pro workflows

this to me would be the more immediate selling point(compared to more consumer type stuff), if this is good enough to replace external monitors so I can essentially have my ideal setup wherever I want. Companies could offer these as a return to office incentive, in theory they would cut back on a lot of the productivity complaints of open office compared to home office.

got to love how small the world is. For those who don't know, this guy has ties to Mossad and his daughter was Epstein's handler with Les Wexner funneling the money.

and if you look at the industries where jobs were added in December 90% of them were directly or indirectly tied to government deficit spending. If/when the government is forced to cut spending you are going to see a lot of job losses

if the economy was good we wouldn't have people doing early 401K withdrawals at record rates, record car repo rates, and record credit card debt. I'm just tired of the apologists who apparently live in a bubble or are outright lying for other reasons

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/401k-hardship-withdra...

https://www.gao.gov/blog/american-credit-card-debt-hits-new-...

https://www.pymnts.com/loans/2023/auto-loan-delinquency-rate...

you're using one of the most regulated and government lobbied industries as an example of "unchained capitalism" ? Boeing would have went bankrupt years ago if it wasn't for their sweetheart government contracts and favors given due to lobbying

>Yeah there is a nice crossover also in religion, where some sects have agreed that theories like the Big Bang are not incompatible with a creator.

The "Big Bang" theory was literally created by a Catholic priest, the name was coined by an atheist physicist mocking it because it aligned too much with the Bible for his taste

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georges_Lema%C3%AEtre

realistically the solution is going to be artificial wombs, which are already being tested in Japan and the US. They'll get them in the door initially for women who can't have kids naturally or homosexual couples, but eventually it will be normalized or governments will just create as many test tube kids as needed

only other alternative is a massive propaganda campaign to raise the social value of being a mother to how it used to be, where motherhood was socially seen as being far higher status than having a job for women. That's the current problem, years of women being told that "freedom" and having a job is way better than having kids. It's really not a money/stability issue, because the poorest people in Western countries have the most kids

"fortune is of sluggish growth, ruin is rapid"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seneca_effect

Look at how easily supply chains collapsed due to lockdowns, complex systems are hard to sustain and the focus on efficiency above all else has resulted in reduced redundancy. With less people around it will be hard to even maintain things, let alone improve them

>We need to remove as many impediments as we can to child birth and rearing - for example changing how we work so that children are compatible with productive and fulfilling careers

Most European countries already support this but their birth rates are as bad or worse than Japan when excluding migrants. The only groups reproducing above replacement level are traditional Christians and Muslims, groups with an ideology that is proven by 2000+ year Lindy effect.

>but in my opinion there is a tight relationship between population density and the housing market

there are entire towns in Japan with empty houses, the problem is globalization which resulted in jobs being centralized in a handful of cities in developed nations and everything else getting outsourced. Governments embracing and encouraging remote work to help spread people out would be a better solution to housing problems

>I'm not sure if America actually cares about those types of war and military considerations any longer. Have you looked at ship construction times lately?

it's kind of funny because the US won WWII by the ability to churn out huge volumes of decent quality goods but now our military seems to be adopting the German idea that small numbers of expensive wunderwaffen will turn the tide

Everybody wanted to control the entire pie, when in reality almost all of them would have been better off just licensing their content to Netflix and not worrying about streaming distribution

OP of the thread says they talked to multiple financial advisors but they didn't listen. If they'd just put the majority of it into stocks 6 years ago and forgot about it the OP would have nearly doubled their money.

>popularly elected

love when people act like the Soviets weren't financing and supporting South American leaders in the exact same way as the US. They were as "popularly elected" as Kim Jong Un and Putin. It was a proxy war in the same way the Middle East is/was, global powers each picking a side to achieve their goals.

the only logical thing is to feel bad for the citizens who get caught in the crossfire

because they were in a massive hiring spree at that time, if you hire 10s of thousands of people in a single year it's going to drive down your average tenure

all they need is an API compatible client library so there is no actual switching cost between models other than configuration. There's a reason OpenAI is adding all sorts of add-on features like assistants and file upload, because they know models themselves are going to be a commodity and they need something to lock developers on their platform

the thought experiment assumes that people aren't building walls or doing things for no reason. The main issue with tech bros using it is that Chesterton was aiming it at people who were trying to change social norms that had been around for centuries built around the cumulative knowledge and wisdom of millions of people

it wasn't supposed to be used for some 2 year old startup's SOPs, software architecture, or business decisions. The argument assumes you already have a system that has been working for a long time and was well thought out

>I asked it a few simple fact based questions, such as who our CEO is. It answered with our previous CEO based on an old press release.

this is the problem with basic RAG implementations that most products are currently using, simple vector search isn't able to handle queries like this.

The solution is enhancing the base query and also using structured data to filter on metadata

here's a good article covering some strategies - https://jxnl.github.io/instructor/blog/2023/09/17/rag-is-mor...

>If the goal is to get levels of performance that Starlink cannot provide, then this makes sense?

no, because the only reason Starlink doesn't currently hit the metrics is due to them having so many users joining. They could hit the metrics by temporarily halting signups, cutting off users, or delaying the Pentagon's massive deployment project.

Or Musk could cut off Ukraine's capacity, which the US military admits is consuming hundreds of millions in Starlink capacity that could be allocated to US consumers to speed up their internet

>U.S. defense officials had previously estimated that the annual cost for Starlink in Ukraine, which Musk mostly had been donating, will be hundreds of millions of dollars.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/...

The tech is proven to work, the FCC is just playing politics.

between the scam ads and their war on adblock it really seems like Google is scraping for every penny they can

the primary issue I see with this is for things where unfinished work results in something going from being finished the next day to blocked from Thursday until Monday. Some small question or task that could be done in 5 minutes but now has to wait that entire time. Just not going to work for many businesses

I mean even Gary Marcus is now an AI doomer who went from mocking these models to saying they need to be banned or research slowed for safety reasons. Why's he so scared of a ladder?

A lot of people having to eat crow due to how quickly things changed in just a few years

there are some crazy talented pilots out there who are able to perform under massive amounts of pressure, United Flight 232 is a more extreme version of this article

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Airlines_Flight_232

>Despite the fatalities, the accident is considered a good example of successful crew resource management. A majority of those aboard survived; experienced test pilots in simulators were unable to reproduce a survivable landing. It has been termed "The Impossible Landing" as it is considered one of the most impressive landings ever performed in the history of aviation

plane lost all hydraulics and had to be steered and crash landed using only the engines

non-paywall link: https://archive.is/ld9Bm

companies are always in maximized greed mode, governments are blaming them for stupid monetary policy and poor handling of COVID which resulted in tons of supply chain issues that allowed smart companies to maximize profits even more

>Google Docs created in 2006

tech was based on an acquired company, Google just abused their search monopoly to make it more popular(same thing they did with YT). This has been the strategy for every service they've ever made, Google really hasn't launched a decent in-house product since Gmail and even that was grown using their search monopoly as free advertising

>Google Docs originated from Writely, a web-based word processor created by the software company Upstartle and launched in August 2005

a lot of "open source" companies leave their repos bare so you are forced to go onto their website where they can better track and retarget you