returnInfinity

Yes sick of AI generated "illustrations".

This is fueled by the parabolic token usage. If token usage continues to grow parabolic, then these are the most genius deals made.

If token usage declines because of high prices, look at what happened to SBF.

Code is secondary. Pmf is primary.

Code is a commodity. Very easy to make. Now even llms are commodities. There are other intangible assets more valuable. Like the chatgpt brand here.

ChatGpt has won. I talk to all teens living nearby and they all use chatgpt and not Google.

The teens, they don't know what is OpenAI, they don't know what is Gemini. They sure know what is ChatGPT.

It's a lot more complicated, but yes advertising works.

There is a saying in India, whats seen is what is sold.

Not the hidden best product.

Without the algorithm, TikTok is not TikTok.

When Tiktok was banned in India, everyone tried to recreate it, include Instagram. Everyone failed to get anywhere close to TikTok for you page.

Once the new algorithm is live, expect massive backlash.

Using AI effectively is a skill. As more people acquire it, it gets more useful.

AI also enables everyone to make simple apps for fun. They may get serious and build great things as well.

It may have hit an intelligence wall

But it still may increase productivity as adoption increases and more use-cases are discovered

Either way, not enough data to short the stock or leveraged long.

Prompting AI is what employers want, they are learning the right things.

yes exactly, branding, marketing and market share matters.

AI is improving my productivity on simple tasks. It only needs to improve productivity of the world by 1-10% to be worth it

10% would mean a 10 trillion in productivity, 1% is 1 trillion.

Looks like they want to hire a PM to build a vibe coding software. And they want a PM that understands the usecase.

Soon they will hijack ASI, then we will need a new word again.

Chrome had the goodwill

And also Chrome would piggyback on Flash Player installer

Does that include youtube as well?

Yes, people will send long AI generated emails, then AI will summarize it back.

He is playing the CEO 101 game, trying to convince investors to pump more money into his AI company.

that's the short term, if everyone starts to default, something is going to break and come back to the shop keeper.

sometimes products stick, like slack, dropbox, box cursor may survive

Doesn't mean 30% more productivity

They are definitely creating some value. Managed database.

Make it an iphone and android app. more people will join in.

Ed Zitron is a permanent Open AI bear. Every few months he publishes a bear case.

Brad Gerstner from Altimeter capital makes a bull case, you need to listen to him as well.

Then make up your own thesis about OpenAI, LLMs and AI.

Look for marketing jobs, technical marketing, marketing on social media. People are hooked to youtube, tiktok, instagram.

That being said, the whole tariff situation is creating a dark cloud over all jobs

That's a good analysis, better than what I could come up at least.

Trump like tariffs, you can see his old videos about that. There is one offramp, which is that all tariffs come down and trump accepts that as a win.

Also Bessent's friend Druckenmiller likes a consumption tax, and they think tariffs are a good consumption tax.

They are determined to bring back some of the supply chain back to USA

I don't know much, but this is the messaging

No they are not dead, but streaming has taken away some market share or stolen the movie theater growth.

Reddit is worth 27 billion right now. What could have been.

Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron are very bearish on LLMs.

Disclosure - I am neither bearish or a mega bull on LLMs. LLMs useful in some cases.