rlt

Do you have any evidence of this? I don’t think there have been a lot of high profile departures in the past few years.

Ok I’ll try:

Starship becomes “fully and rapidly reusable”, needing little to no refurbishment between launches. Then the lower bound of launch costs is just the expendables (methane, oxygen, nitrogen) which could cost as little as $1M per launch.

SpaceX uses custom silicon (produced by “TeraFab”) that can run at higher temperatures then the radiative cooling requirements goes down significantly and a 100 kW satellite might weight around 1 ton.

Starship should be able to launch at least 100T payload. Assuming they could fit that many, that puts the launch cost per 100 kW at $10,000, which is a rounding error compared to the cost of the chips alone, even if it’s off by a factor of 10.

Obviously a lot needs to go right for this to happen, but it’s not impossible.

Source: https://x.com/LeoLabs_Space/status/2038680177408880719

This is one of those things as a pedantic technologist I've had to accept, like DJs referring to USB thumb drives they store their music on as "USBs".

The vast majority of Starlink satellites do have laser interconnect now. They started launching them in 2021 or 2022 I believe.

I feel like we need a distributed system/protocol that allows people to have pseudonyms not linked to their real identity, but with a shared reputation/trust score, so if you’re a bad actor using a pseudonym your real identity and all your other sock puppets are penalized too.

I know very little about this but sense that some combination of buzzwords like homomorphic encryption, zk-snarks, and yes, blockchains could be useful.

Of course this would present problems if any of your identities were ever compromised and your reputation destroyed.

Enjoy it while it lasts.

Is it really that amazing? It’s a pretty simple idea, and seemed pretty buggy when I tried it out.

Does any credible approach to prompt injection even exist?

Don’t forget “Moltbot” between “Clawdbot” and “OpenClaw”!

I think that named lasted about 24 hours, but it was long enough to spawn MoltBook.

Is he? My impression of Clawdbot was it was a good idea but not particularly technically impressive or even well-written. I had all kinds of issues setting it up.

Three-minute dramas?! That sounds like an eternity. Most content on Tik Tok is under a minute.

They should try the same thing but replace the original spell names with something else.

I agree he leans into the hype aggressively, and spends too much time on Twitter, but they are making progress regardless.

Starlink is growing rapidly.

Starship has been making steady progress.

Neuralink is helping ~12 real people with spinal cord injuries/ALs.

Optimus seems to be making progress.

Tesla is beginning to roll out robotaxis without safety drivers.

Not all AI workloads are latency sensitive.

I mostly agree with you, but I don't understand the latency argument. Latency to where?

These satellites will be in a sun-synchronous orbit, so only close to any given location on Earth for a fraction of the day.

Figuring out how to radiate a lot of waste heat into a vacuum is just building very large radiators.

His time estimates are notoriously, um, aggressive. But I think that's part of how his companies are able to accomplish so much. And they do, even if you're upset they haven't put a human on Mars fast enough or built one of his side quests.

"We specialize in making the impossible merely late"

We also don't have fully reusable launch vehicles, yet. But we will shortly. That will decrease the cost of launch by at least an order of magnitude.

Still there will be a lot of engineering problems to solve.

2-3 years seems very short, but 10 years seems long to me.

Sure it is, just not economically at that scale yet. But if Starship brings the cost to orbit down significantly, maybe.

A large piece of aluminum with ammonia pumped through it?

Not sure why this is downvoted. Much cheaper to transfer data than energy.

A "fully and rapidly reusable" Starship would bring the cost of launch down orders of magnitude, perhaps to a level where it makes sense to send up satellites to repair/refuel other satellites.

Obviously because murder requires intent. It might be negligent homicide though.

There’s a big difference between someone randomly clapping their hands and an agent seeing/hearing that a detainee has a firearm, then hearing the firearm discharge as they’re struggling to restrain him.

Hanlon’s Razor

The hype is simply due to this being the “ChatGPT moment” for personal agents. It’s showing people the future. The software itself isn’t particularly impressive.

> But they reason they were in that state to begin with is because you don’t inherently derive value from their organization.

You don’t derive more value from their organization than the cost of manually organizing them.

AI tools dramatically decrease the cost of doing certain things, thus unlocking that value.

For iMessage I don’t think you actually need a second phone number, you can just make a second iCloud account with the same phone number.

If it misfired it likely misfired as it was being taken, not while in his holster.

If you’re detaining someone who has a gun and a gun goes off it’s incompetent, maybe negligent, but not murder to react by shooting the guy who had the gun.

I don’t think anyone can draw definitive conclusions from the videos.

No, really, the Sig Sauer P320 is known for unintentionally discharging: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46759664