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runbathtime

-10 karma · joined June 9, 2021

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runbathtime··on What the Crypto Crowd Doesn’t Understand About Economics
Thomas Sowell is a great great thinker. People do not study his work because it doesn't fit well with MMT and the micromanaging of an economy. Not because he is black. This obsession with race is ridiculous.
runbathtime··on Americans Are Pretty Skeptical That Hard Work Will Pay Off
When the SAT / ACT are thrown out and companies are no longer hiring based on merit, but other characteristics, is it any wonder that people would think that hard work doesn't matter?

These people are one step away from thinking about how to game the system and work smarter/ differently than just working hard.

runbathtime··on What the Crypto Crowd Doesn’t Understand About Economics
Most people in crypto do not understand anything about economics. They understand ponzi/ greater fool theory and how to obfuscate to the public and regulators to pull the wool over someone's eyes.
runbathtime··on Best performing assets against inflation
I think that will be a big topic that government will try to solve. I think they will offer policies that help inequality directly in housing, giving away homes to those that qualify, further pushing up home prices ultimately.
runbathtime··on Show HN: Coin Spin – Randomly guessing BTC addresses
It is mind blowing that we can't guess private keys easily, although probably depends on how the wallet is made. Good idea for an app.
runbathtime··on Best performing assets against inflation
Real estate might be the best play for the average joe. Where else can you borrow a ton of money at low interest rates for 30 years with a real asset (the house) as collateral? It is like a free call option, with government policies. If you overpay you can always turn in the key or get the bank to write down your loan to fair value for the home. You make money on the debt, paying back in dollars with lower purchasing power, you do not need the home price to go up.
runbathtime··on Best performing assets against inflation
Agree, the question to ask is compared to what? Compared to gold, which hasn't had a run up like the other assets, comes to mind. What others?
runbathtime··on Bitcoin's Sole Fundamental: Momentum
Agree bitcoin is a highly speculative asset. Is bitcoin also a reflexive asset?
runbathtime··on Cargo Is Piling Up Everywhere, and It's Making Inflation Worse
Expanding the money supply is making inflation worse, because that is the definition of inflation- expanding the money supply. Prices do not inflate, money supply inflates.
runbathtime··on Show HN: Coin Spin – Randomly guessing BTC addresses
How long would it take you to guess one? 100 years? Does the app actually check to see if you have guessed?
runbathtime··on The Dark Side of Solar Power
It wasn't a rounding error, the wind wasn't blowing, which is the problem with these renewables, they don't work when the wind doesn't blow.

If you are really open to a different framework for analyzing energy policies, I recommend The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels by Alex Epstein.

runbathtime··on Supreme Court rules against NCAA in compensation fight with college athletes
I suppose grad students can also be paid for TA'ing a class, maybe that is way you mean.

I find it ridiculous. If you want to pay them, then they shouldn't get free tuition. Free tuition is part of their unspoken 'pay.'

runbathtime··on Supreme Court rules against NCAA in compensation fight with college athletes
If they are private and for profit then why do they get public tax dollars? That should end immediately.

Also many universities are public and not for profit.... you know the main ones that actually have well known sports teams... not uh MIT.

runbathtime··on The Dark Side of Solar Power
Science is downstream of politics. This 'science' wants their opinion to be treated as fact.
runbathtime··on The Dark Side of Solar Power
Solar is unreliable and the push for policies favoring wind and solar contribute to Texas Grid Blackouts. It really is amazing how much power, influence, and profits this movement have achieved.
runbathtime··on Doge Branded as Ponzi by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President
Here is the best, concise explanation that I have found for the nature of a ponzi scheme and the bigger fool theory. Professional of Finance - John Zdanowicz

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ4VQyhQ3Q8

runbathtime··on Total Beginners Guide to Guns
Knowing the law would help clarify to you what justifies using it and when it does not for self defense. You don't go looking for situations that call for self defense, that is the opposite of self defense, usually.
runbathtime··on Rhode island makes financial literacy classes required for high school students
Slippery slope for proponents of bitcoin to slip bitcoin into the curriculum.

Imo financial concepts should have been taught along with math, because math is pretty boring to most students the way it is taught currently.

runbathtime··on Supreme Court rules against NCAA in compensation fight with college athletes
If there was anyone else left that thought Universities were about education this should wake them up.

Sports are fun, but they are not the purpose of higher learning. Why are people worshiping these athletes and so obsessed with NCAA? They already get a bunch of free stuff from the University. They want to make money, go play pro at 18. Universities are not for profit, or they aren't supposed to be, so they should not be getting paid.

runbathtime··on Supreme Court rules against NCAA in compensation fight with college athletes
Are athletes students or are they employees? I would bet that none of these athletes are paying tuition and have special privileges in regard to course work so they trade this for that, playing for the school. Let's just stop pretending that they care about getting a degree and revoke their student status. They can be full time employees if they want to get paid.
runbathtime··on Against Meme Activism
Reminds me of Leonard Peikoff's lecture- "A picture is not an argument."

Memes show how easy it is to manipulate or con a large group of people.

runbathtime··on Total Beginners Guide to Guns
You also need to learn the law of self defense, equally if not more important, if you plan to use a gun for self defense.
runbathtime··on Doge Branded as Ponzi by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President
Where are the returns coming from? Is it a productive activity? Or are you making returns from others coming in and buying at a higher price? This can describe people pushing stocks not because the business is profitable, but because they say the price will go up. What makes this illegal? I think it comes down to lying or fraud, which is already illegal.

What makes crypto interesting is there isn't one person to point to, but everyone out there promoting it is like running their own ponzi because they only profit by convincing someone to buy in a higher price than them. Also in crypto, you can say bitcoin is going to 1 million and it is taken seriously so how do you this a lie? Also, it might get there in the future. It has to be about why the crypto is going up and that is tricky. Can you lie by omission, because in a ponzi if you don't say how the returns come, is that still a ponzi? If you just say, this is going to the moon, and people believe you, is that a ponzi?

Ultimately, all legitimate returns (investing) come from productive activity.

Gambling comes from ponzi like dynamics. Gambling that the stock goes higher, trading, etc. This is all about returns from other people, not from productive activity of the underlying. I think this ponzi is not illegal as long as there is no lying about where returns come from. Perhaps these activities shouldn't be allowed to use the word investment.

Because it is so hard to think about, I don't think it makes since to call them a ponzi. I think it makes since to explain to people you are gambling, not investing, and it will eventually not be sustainable, but crash back to fair value, which most of crypto's case is slightly above zero. I think with crypto there is a lot of misdirection, fraud, lying, but it is very difficult to prove. The SEC can't even figure out what a security is....

Because crypto has no intrinsic value, predicting crazy prices are ridiculous. It is all based on speculation. Most people know there isn't a company behind it making profits and they know that some people got lucky and bought in way lower than them. This is known. What may not be known is basic financial literacy and people who know better that do not tell the truth because they can make more money confusing and pumping crypto to the moon. Most people who know it has ponzi dynamics do not care, most people like ponzis, know the risks, and still want to play. Crypto makes ponzi games more fair.

runbathtime··on Doge Branded as Ponzi by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President
Ponzi's themselves are not illegal, but a descriptive term. I think what makes a ponzi scheme illegal is the existence of fraud, or lying about where the returns come from, not necessarily where the returns come from.
runbathtime··on The collapse of the IRON stable coin
That is a separate question though- whether someone can be found.

Most large defi projects are not anonymous. Many have VC backing, are on discord, etc.

runbathtime··on 80% of orgs that paid the ransom were hit again
An argument some have suggested is to make it illegal to pay ransoms. But with crypto, someone could pay it for you (maybe the hacker), just to have charges filled on the victim.
runbathtime··on The collapse of the IRON stable coin
I have to disagree, but will consider your argument. I just don't think you can write code that does money transmission and publish it and say you are now not doing money transmission because you can't modify it after it is published. Paypal could write some code and publish it on AWS, perhaps they make it so that they can never modify it every again and imagine it functions just fine. Are they now not doing money transmission?
runbathtime··on Launch HN: Hedgehog (YC S21) – Cryptocurrency Portfolio Manager
Thanks for the clarification. The api is used to send instructions to the money transmitter. I am imagining the product is more UX and aggregation of data for the end user. Congrats on your launch.
runbathtime··on Launch HN: Hedgehog (YC S21) – Cryptocurrency Portfolio Manager
I'm trying to understand, by passing the trade request you are like a hosted wallet that you control? Instead of the user broadcasting a transaction, the hosted wallet does that? I don't understand how that isn't money transmission, unless the hosted wallets are actually multisg, because as I undertand it multisig isn't considered custodial.
runbathtime··on Launch HN: Hedgehog (YC S21) – Cryptocurrency Portfolio Manager
Do you have money transmitter licenses in all the states? Do you plan on getting them?
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