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runnerup

4,068 karma · joined December 8, 2019

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runnerup··on Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?
Texas’ strategy is to encourage additional growth in the crypto mining sector because ostensibly they use a lot of power during off-peak days/hours which supports capital payback but also is flexible enough to turn off their load when the grid production is over stressed, so they theoretically won’t contribute to blackouts.

Not sure if this thinking is fully correct, but on its face it’s at minimum not completely absurd.

Also I think some of the Texas leadership is financially or emotionally invested in cryptocurrency.

runnerup··on New York’s crackdown on Airbnb began Tuesday
While it’s good to give the benefit of the doubt, in politics it’s foolish to rule out malice without evidence against malice.
runnerup··on Come downstairs or we’ll eat your order, delivery workers tell customers
By “their bicycle / other capital” I meant like a car or tools/bags/accessories.

But I think I maybe understand what you’re saying?

runnerup··on Come downstairs or we’ll eat your order, delivery workers tell customers
I usually spend more on my lock and chains than I do on my bicycle. The bicycle may only cost $100-300 but I don’t have to buy it 4+ times if it’s never stolen.
runnerup··on Come downstairs or we’ll eat your order, delivery workers tell customers
I do follow LPL, love the channel. I’ve never been worried about bike thieves picking locks, I’ve never seen or heard of them doing that. I’ve only seen/heard of them them using destructive methods, typically bolt cutters.

If the average bike thief gets as good at picking locks at LPL, we’re very screwed!

runnerup··on Come downstairs or we’ll eat your order, delivery workers tell customers
> because you have the money

I think the issue is that maybe the customer doesn’t have the money to make the laborer do what they want. At a much higher wage, the delivery person would be happy to risk their bicycle / other capital.

runnerup··on Come downstairs or we’ll eat your order, delivery workers tell customers
Thanks for writing out the economic model at play here. I needed a better way to communicate this and much of your phrasing works very well.
runnerup··on Come downstairs or we’ll eat your order, delivery workers tell customers
I didn’t realize that. Thought it was 5-10 minutes. Thanks. Sounds like the bicycle delivery system is fundamentally broken then.
runnerup··on Come downstairs or we’ll eat your order, delivery workers tell customers
Another solution is having a proper bicycle lock. Yes, they’re heavy but I bike around with Kryptonites largest and thickest U-lock, as well as sometimes with a 25-lb 18mm motorcycle chain for the bicycle.

I do think the food delivery model should only work for customers willing to pay delivery people $25+/hr, especially considering you’re not just paying what should be a living wage for labor but also renting the capital that the delivery person brings to the job (car, bicycle, locks, etc)

runnerup··on Mohamed Al-Fayed began life as a porter in Alexandria and died as a billionaire
I told GP the same thing as you (to read the HN guidelines). However, I don’t see any characterization happening in the comment above. What am I missing?

I believe they are referencing the other comment you made:

> When in Rome, do as the Romans do

Which in this context is snarky, not substantive and likely to be flamebait.

runnerup··on Mohamed Al-Fayed began life as a porter in Alexandria and died as a billionaire
That is an incredibly shallow and fairly snarky response. I can do a lot of legwork to fill out a more robust position based on assumptions about people’s beliefs who make quips like this.

—————

I think the most important thing this misses are that there are more parties to an economic enterprise than just a single seller and their buyers. At one extreme, let’s envision a fictional world:

Walmart builds a small empire on the back of public highways. They pay fair taxes which allows the highways to capture and reinvest the value they created for Walmart.

Walmart then lobbies government leaders to eliminate their taxes. Walmart now pays no taxes.

Walmart continues to extract value from the public highways but no longer shares that value with the government which created the value.

I’m not saying this is literally what’s happening - I’m just using it as an example to show how a company can provide great prices to customers, while inappropriately capturing value created by others. This is just to show that your model posited above fails to take into account some pretty large effects in the real world.

runnerup··on Mohamed Al-Fayed began life as a porter in Alexandria and died as a billionaire
I personally wonder whether “luck” is underestimated more among most, or whether they’re moreso overestimating the degree of the value creation of the person who was lucky to find themselves in a position where they could create lots of value.

There’s a perception that guys like Ballmer created $10B of value and managed to capture $1B of it. Just because he was lucky to be there doesn’t mean he didn’t hold a pivotal role and make a huge difference in the outcome of the enterprise, and may have been awarded a small % of that value created.

Maybe other people could have created that value too, but he was lucky to be there, they were lucky to have him there instead of someone worse, and he still only captured “10%” (or whatever) of the value created.

My thought is that many of these billionaires do have a large “value over replacement” where replacement is just some random person with the resume for the position.

But I don’t think the enterprise creates nearly as much value as has been assigned to it. I think much of the value is created by the public infrastructure, an existing public education system which provides affordable skilled labor, and much of the laborers themselves.

So personally I think Steve Ballmer did get lucky, did create a lot of value for Microsoft, and captured some portion of that MSFT +value, but Microsoft captured a lot of value that was created by others (the government/public) and likely more should have been captured by them instead.

runnerup··on Mohamed Al-Fayed began life as a porter in Alexandria and died as a billionaire
> It is absolutely possible to make that (and more) by doing honest work.

I’d agree with you under our current ethical system.

Under my personal moral system, I think anyone “capturing” $1 billion as a “portion of the value they created” most likely involves greatly undervaluing the contributions of the system they built upon/in (which should have been captured by taxes and reinvested into that system), as well as much of the labor they employed (other key employees were probably given too little equity, and much of the bottom rings are likely underpaid on an hourly basis for the value they provide).

Personally I’d like to see significantly higher taxes on top-end earners to help allow the “system” which provided the infrastructure, skilled and educated labor, and favorable market environment, to capture a little bit more of the value it provided to billionaires and reinvest that in K-12 education to create a strong workforce for the next generation of business owners to rely on.

I personally think even with say, an absurdly high tax rate of 90% on earnings over a billion dollars, folks like Elon Musk and Sam Walton and Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos would still have nearly as much personal incentive to earn money past their first $1 Billion.

I personally feel that Jeff Bezos would absolutely still fight for growing his net worth from $1B to $13B at 90% tax rate, instead of $1B to $130B at his current tax rate.

runnerup··on Mohamed Al-Fayed began life as a porter in Alexandria and died as a billionaire
Honestly even as a person who believes that anyone with a billion dollars has effectively stolen it (captured more than their personal share) from the people and systems which enabled the value-creation of their enterprises…

If I won a $1 million lottery (after taxes) I’d have no idea how to turn that into $100M. I’d probably spend 75% of it on a house, 10% of it to pay off other debts, and then be still solidly in the labor class.

The guy obviously built an empire out of nothing, through both grift and grit. His first major win may have been ingratiating himself with the Haitian leadership, but how do you do this with nothing?

I don’t admire it, but I recognize that it doesn’t just happen either. The guy didn’t really win with a lottery ticket, he did something to put the fix in at the lottery.

runnerup··on Mohamed Al-Fayed began life as a porter in Alexandria and died as a billionaire
I think your model is a bit flawed - it’s likely value scales faster than linearly with increases in “smarter”.

So, while I philosophically agree that it’s obvious anyone with a billion dollars has not earned the vast majority of it, I also personally believe it’s slightly harmful to suggest that we should be paid in direct proportion to how hard we work.

There’s a lot more to be said on the topic, but I think the truth for “how much value can one person create; and how much of that value should they capture for themselves?” lies in-between “scales linearly with hard work and smartness” and “it’s great that they were able to capture a tiny $1B slice of the value they created in their lifetime”.

runnerup··on Mohamed Al-Fayed began life as a porter in Alexandria and died as a billionaire
What does this add to the discussion?

> Be kind. Don't be snarky. Converse curiously

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

runnerup··on Mohamed Al-Fayed began life as a porter in Alexandria and died as a billionaire
Please add something more substantive and less divisive than “hmmmmmmmm”. There’s so much interesting about this fellow’s life which can add some fascinating narrative here, we can all avoid cheapening it with aggression and flame wars.
runnerup··on Mohamed Al-Fayed began life as a porter in Alexandria and died as a billionaire
There is a worthy discussion somewhere in here, but as written this is just flamebait, and got a predictable response from others.

Please spend some time reading the HN commenting guidelines - there are a few about divisive topics and flamebait which are relevant to this comment.

runnerup··on Mohamed Al-Fayed began life as a porter in Alexandria and died as a billionaire
Please re-read the HN commenting guidelines.
runnerup··on ‘Psychonauts’ by Mike Jay review
> I know this is just decriminalizing, but access follows.

I just want affordable, trustworthy, fast, and legal quantitative testing so that people actually know what they're taking.

runnerup··on USPS Isn't Paying 45,000 Rural Postal Workers This Week
> Software “engineers” cling to their management driven paradigm and resist true accountability

Yeah just gonna stop you there...none of us were given the choice to be accountable and hide behind "I will lose my license if I commit/deploy this." I'm also an actual engineer in addition to a software engineer, and being able to say "I'm not willing to go to jail for this" works when you have a P.E. license in an actual engineering project, but definitely does not work in the software industry. It doesn't even work in engineering if you don't have a P.E. outside of "No this will literally hurt/maim/kill someone"

Yes, either way (software or P.E.) you might be fired for saying "I'm not willing to go to jail for this" but it's much less likely you'd be fired for it in "hard" engineering, because everyone else on the team understands that you're not being entirely hyperbolic when you say "I'm not signing this because I could go to jail." If you said that in a software project people would rightfully think you're fucking nuts and don't understand how the world works, because there's an infinitesimal chance a software engineer would go to jail.

Even the criminals who deployed the Uber Greyball thing didn't face any consequences, which truly shocked me, as that was blatant obstruction of justice.

runnerup··on Tesla, Rivian Put on Fake Show of Support for ‘Right to Repair’
Yep. So I’m expecting it to cost me $2,000 as the consumer, and I wouldn’t want to spend that. If costs some trivial amount, I’d love to have a battery that basically never dies.
runnerup··on Tesla, Rivian Put on Fake Show of Support for ‘Right to Repair’
I'd be surprised if solar panels in the roof were less than $2,000. An android-auto enabled head unit is like $500. Heated seats are often $1000 and that's "just" resistive wire. A cover for your truck bed is like $700. Premium carpet mats are $250. Unlocking your tailgate using a remote beeper instead of a physical key costs $300.

> IMO solar roofs are useful at the low end for ~400$

So I agree with this, but I don't believe that would be an option, at least without some DIY aspect.

runnerup··on Tesla, Rivian Put on Fake Show of Support for ‘Right to Repair’
I’d rather pay $2,000 less for my Honda HR-V than get a solar roof. But I agree it seems like a very nice option for those willing to pay more for their vehicles.
runnerup··on Higher Intakes of Potassium and Magnesium, but Not Lower Sodium, Reduce CVD Risk
I’ve had the best luck with magnesium threonate.
runnerup··on Total Commander
Bill forward blocks some peripheral vision and sometimes get in my way.

Bill backwards hides my lack of a haircut, keeps my bald spot from getting sunburned, stays completely out of vision, keeps swear from dropping into my eyes, and with bill down along the back of my neck doesn’t take up any additional space.

Then when I need to block the sun glare I have the heat available on my head and can just spin it around.

> It makes them futile for the original purpose but that's fashion for you.

No, you just turn it around when you need to activate that function.

runnerup··on You Are Not the Man in the Arena
For the third time: which VC’s do you consider the core of Silicon Valley business culture?

I need you to answer this question so that when I do the analysis I’m not wasting time analyzing investment firms that you don’t think represent Silicon Valley.

I’ll write the blog post for you. But not if you won’t participate in this discussion with a bare minimum of contributing effort. Otherwise it’s purely a one-way discussion, where I do all the work and you just say “no no no”. But I haven’t gotten a single constructive iota from you in this entire discussion. You’ve put in zero effort at all.

runnerup··on You Are Not the Man in the Arena
Again: which VC’s do you consider the core of Silicon Valley business culture?

I did A16Z already. This only involves a very easy google search, and maybe throw in some crunchbase searches. It’s an absolutely trivial task and I’d expect you to try doing this exercise on at least one other VC that you’re interested in.

I could do an exhaustive analysis of public data, but that would be more of a blog post than a discussion comment. I expect you to put in a minimum amount of effort towards fact-checking if you want people to take your strong opinions seriously.

runnerup··on You Are Not the Man in the Arena
The “major players” post the vast majority of their investments because they’re advertising their funds to potential limited partners. It also publicly signaling the strength of the companies they invest in which improves their outcomes through ease of negotiating future business agreements with potential customers and partners.

So it’s definitely possible to establish an approximate upper and lower bound, and it’s way above your 2% limit.

You’d either have to accept that SV does, in fact, deal heavily in scams, or post-facto adjust your tolerance limit to set the bar lower.

runnerup··on Broken by bison, aspen saplings having a tough time in northern Yellowstone
Uhh. Okay thank you.
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