766 karma · joined December 13, 2023
It's going to hurt when agriculture does not see the efficiency gains it has been receiving for the last century or so. We might be at the inflection or leveling off now.
M2 expansion is the prime driver of prices, after supply & demand. Normalize SPX, gold/silver, etc, to M2 and see that they all run in fairly horizontal channels. You can even see nominal GDP normalized to M2 having been flat initially and then transitioning into a downward sloped curve for the last few decades.
By normalizing, I mean [in TradingView] doing SYMBOL*23.16*10^12/M2SL (conceptually SYMBOL*M2SL[0]/M2SL). Most important items track close to M2's roughly 6.5%-7% annualized force of interest inflation rate (the quotient of the natural log of the ratio of price now to historical price, over the elapsed time between the prices).
7% inflation (FoI) -> wealth halflife of cash ≈ 10 years.
To me, it is a strong indicator that advertisers need to be reeled in with advertisement control legislation: make advertisers liable for yanking ads or monetization on speech grounds. Huggies Diapers and Johnson & Johnson should not be able to pull [funding for] their ads from content which could be potentially undesirable without incurring legal risk of civil suit.
Also I want to see all people who are paid to shill a product (like testimonials) be forced to say "$COMPANY paid me $THOUSAND to tell you $MESSAGE," to alleviate the psychological vulnerability of social proofing. It should be a felony to be paid (even by quid pro quo) by someone else to say something which has a commercial or political impact, without disclosing that payment and its value. Things people say should be entirely their opinion shared for no monetary kickback or other kinds of favor (such as discounts, free extras, club memberships, etc). This does not apply for selling the opinion to those receiving it, so lawyers and consultants [and similar] are exempt.
The industry has to be brought to heel for what they have been doing to our language, and how they have spurred the online demonetization/censorship tyranny. No single platform can defect from the current norms due to financial reliance on advertisers, but if it were law then advertisers could not use revocation of their funds to punish protection of free speech.
These are geekisms:
>super heroes
>fantasy books/movies
>Pokemon
>Magic the Gathering
>Star Wars
>Lord Of The Rings
>Narnia
>Harry Potter
>video games
Here you describe nerdisms:
>When I was little I was fascinated by big engines and in general driven by the curiosity of wanting to know how everything worked. I would disassemble every piece of electronics in the household. I was into model airplanes and gliders. I was obsessed with building electric motors. I was also really big into steam machines. Everything steam was just cool. Then computers took over my life. Today I find myself nerding out about wood working and back garden agriculture when I'm not doing AI stuff.
Geeks consoom, nerds understand and tinker/build.
Most video games are geek (consoom), tools like Siemens NX or Adobe Master Collection CS6 are nerd (should be thought of as extremely open-ended games), simulators wobble between my classifications depending on accuracy/depth (Minecraft, Sims: geek; NX Nastran, flight/train/truck/forklift simulators: nerd).
If only it were free for minors to play with as a toy, beats Minecraft as a builder!
I'm an over-40 year old wannabe engineer too, except I didn't get as far as you on my little pet project: designing a 'universal' gear, based on professor Jack Phillips' work "General Spatial Involute Gearing." So far I can model the basic helicoids in Siemens NX, such that they touch along the ISA (Intermediate Screw Axis) which passes through the CDL (Center Distance Line) in between the gear axes. I have no clue how to proceed from there with actual involute teeth.
My idea is to at some point write an NX Open script/module, which takes in various parameters (like selecting the shaft/axes vectors; inputs ratio, pitch, etc.) and spits out something structured like my model.
My TradingView (Yearly) model for the phenomenon: 23.05*10^12/M2SL*A4102C1Q027SBEA/(USPOP*CIVPART/100*(1-UNRATE/100))
A4102C1Q027SBEA is total US wages/salaries,
A4102C1Q027SBEA/(USPOP*CIVPART/100*(1-UNRATE/100)) attempts to get a rough average of individual wage/salary,
23.05*10^12/M2SL normalizes the time series to today's Dollar value (in M2 terms).
M2 change is a much better measure in my opinion. Using M2 is literally comparing supply of item to supply of cash which could immediately buy it. When scaling SPX or GC1! by M2SL[0]/M2SL, you get a surprisingly flat time series over decades, which reads to me that the effects of the change in M2 are being filtered out of an otherwise exponential price curve.
My favorite way to gauge historical prices/data is to scale it with M2:
(TradingView): M2SL[0]/M2SL*TICKER
Replace M2SL[0] with the latest M2 value. 23.05 T should be 23.05*10^12.
Compare SPX, GC1!, SI1!, CL1!, or any other TICKER you can think of!
Another cool little model I like to look at which starkly shows the loss of power for us little guys:
(TradingView): 23.05*10^12/M2SL*A4102C1Q027SBEA/(USPOP*CIVPART/100)
Basically in 1960 the average worker earned 3x the purchasing power from their wages compared to today.
TL;DR: Ron Paul was right!
There's also I2PSnark, Hyphanet, and others!
One should live by the maxim: you don't have the thing if you don't possess the file or its processing. That goes for streaming, software, machine learning models, file storage, etc. But I digress; I am happy to see these paternalistic rentiers getting bit by these liberation/copying efforts, and human interests are served every time the digital and infrastructure locks are broken. I will always stand by the distillers!
Whoever makes these boneheaded decisions (SMS 2FA only, hardware/cloud passkeys only) should not be allowed around engineering authentication for the public!
Yeah, I went there! Back off! Get off your high horses and eat some humble pie!
It's going to require a law: if you require 2FA, then TOTP or HOTP must be offered as an option.
Also like Mr. Wright I too was fond of the Care Bears, Nelvana's series particularly. Why bronies became a thing and not care bros, I will never figure out!