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samsonradu

1,592 karma · joined May 21, 2014

radusamson[at]ymail.com

Techie & armchair economist

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samsonradu··on Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020
It’s quite an old trick in the book for any administration, whichever color it has, to try to push the can down the road until it gets re-elected. After that, it’s buyer beware.

Something to consider is that in times like these money are flowing in the wrong direction, instead of going from developed countries (US, EU, JP) to developing countries with better return rates (Emerging markets) it is the other way around, going into developed countries estates, bonds and stocks even with low returns which look already overvalued. That would normally read that there is way more liquidity than actual growth and the valuations are not accurate.

samsonradu··on You're never too old to learn to code
Well, there's nothing wrong besides your job security, which will erode over time due to competition (low-barrier to being average) and also because your tasks could/will be automated.

This stands in many other industries of course, but the point is that not pushing for being better is not a viable long-term strategy if you need to earn a living from it.

samsonradu··on Caffeine dosing strategies to optimize alertness during sleep loss
Oh yes, coffee is one of the less harmful pleasures of life! I would never consider quitting it, that doesn’t mean I’d neglect sleep though.
samsonradu··on America has a truck driver shortage
At least you had passengers, truck drivers spend a ton of time alone which is quite terrible from a psychological point of view.
samsonradu··on Ethiopia is now Africa's fastest growing economy
As a regular traveler, you really got my attention. Mind sharing some of your thoughts about Columbia too?
samsonradu··on The Era of Very Low Inflation and Interest Rates May Be Near an End
> when housing markets collapse, the economy goes down and people loose jobs.

I believe the causality goes the other way around. Economy goes down, people lose jobs and then the housing market collapses. It's funny to keep a bubble inflated to protect people from their mistakes.

People always get overleveraged (encouraged by the government and the banking sector) to buy real estate when the economy is doing fine, what else could one expect to happen when things go south?

samsonradu··on The Era of Very Low Inflation and Interest Rates May Be Near an End
Housing is not included in the CPI I believe. https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/4777/why-arent...
samsonradu··on The Era of Very Low Inflation and Interest Rates May Be Near an End
Me neither, but I tend to think we'll not find out very soon. The article is heavily biased towards the US economy, meanwhile the EU, Japan still struggle with ~0% yields. Hell, Japan's been doing it since 1992.
samsonradu··on The Era of Very Low Inflation and Interest Rates May Be Near an End
> So as long as the moves don’t go too far, increases in inflation and interest rates would be a sign the global economy is returning to a more prosperous equilibrium like the one that prevailed before 2008.

Pre-2008 was quite far from a prosperous equilibrium, otherwise it wouldn't have caused the crisis.

samsonradu··on Parents in poorer countries devote more time to their kids' homework
This is so spot on, and I guess sometimes people forget that internet forums are to be taken with a grain of salt and you should do your own research.

The one thing I dislike the most is the IANAL - "Don't take this as legal advice" disclaimer that I see abused. I mean, really, who is naive enough to take random legal advice from strangers?

samsonradu··on Lessons on Bubbles from Bitcoin
Correct me if I'm wrong, but towards the end of the bubble (2008) GS had insured (bet against) the CDOs that it had previously been propping up.

[1] https://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-fiderer/the-cdos-that-d...

samsonradu··on To Change Habits, Try Replacement Instead
Not a big fan of running, prefer sports overall, but damn I enjoy running on cold weather. Cold air is so refreshing and it gives me some kind of a super-human feeling.
samsonradu··on Facebook is planning to build a real community with parks, stores and apartments
Maybe I’m biased because I’m living in a country where Amazon has little to no presence and there are just other retailers to fill the gap, other delivery companies etc. so life goes on. I never heard anyone cry for Amazon to come to our rescue.
samsonradu··on Cartier boss with $7.5bn: fear of the poor rising up 'keeps him awake at night'
Would it be a good idea to use the term technology instead of AI? There are so many current jobs that will be replaced by pure technological progress (manufacturing jobs, cashiers, cleaners, low-entry banking employees, even drivers). The term AI reads like something amazing (singularity) has to happen for jobs to go away.
samsonradu··on Facebook is planning to build a real community with parks, stores and apartments
Besides Google’s search I can’t think of any FAANG service/product that would be indispensable for the average Joe, being the only service that has no real competition. For all the others, people would replace them relatively easy. Could you provide some examples?

People need Microsoft Windows to operate their businesses and do their jobs, Apple phones and Netflix subscriptions are much easier to replace.

samsonradu··on Show HN: My embarrassing personal website from the 90s
Yeah, this one's actually in use, which makes it even more interesting. Not sure when it was built though.
samsonradu··on Show HN: My embarrassing personal website from the 90s
You might like this one too: https://www.lingscars.com/
samsonradu··on Governments have overestimated the economic returns of higher education
Peter Thiel had an interesting analysis on the higher-education issues [1].

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzdiWDw4teo

samsonradu··on Uber and Lyft drivers' median hourly wage is just $3.37, report finds
Have a friend who did it for a couple of weeks and said pretty much the same thing. It's literally a race to the bottom, heard stories about drivers who come into the big cities and sleep in their cars for this wage. Uber & co calling drivers entrepreneurs makes me sick.
samsonradu··on Decode Like It's 1999: MPEG-1 Decoder in JavaScript
JSMpeg is a great product. I have used it for low-latency live streaming before MSE (Media Source Extensions) arrived in the major browsers. Nowadays the plugin-free alternatives for live streaming are much more efficient, push fragmented MP4s to the browsers and append to a MediaSource buffer using any modern codec supported.
samsonradu··on Veteran Wall Street enforcers are landing new roles in virtual currencies
> I'd argue that Silicon Valley now dominates even wall street in terms of buying political influence in the US nowadays.

This opinion doesn't seem to be shared around here. See this thread from yesterday:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16466064

samsonradu··on Goldman-Backed Circle Buys Digital Exchange Poloniex
Thanks for the link, facts aside you gotta love the author's writing style:

> Rubin was the prototypical Goldman banker. He was probably born in a $4,000 suit, he had a face that seemed permanently frozen just short of an apology for being so much smarter than you, and he exuded a Spock-like, emotion-neutral exterior; the only human feeling you could imagine him experiencing was a nightmare about being forced to fly coach. It became almost a national clichè that whatever Rubin thought was best for the economy — a phenomenon that reached its apex in 1999, when Rubin appeared on the cover of Time with his Treasury deputy, Larry Summers, and Fed chief Alan Greenspan under the headline The Committee To Save The World. [...]

The basic scam in the Internet Age is pretty easy even for the financially illiterate to grasp. Companies that weren't much more than potfueled ideas scrawled on napkins by uptoolate bongsmokers were taken public via IPOs, hyped in the media and sold to the public for mega-millions. It was as if banks like Goldman were wrapping ribbons around watermelons, tossing them out 50-story windows and opening the phones for bids. In this game you were a winner only if you took your money out before the melon hit the pavement.

samsonradu··on Obesity and Overweight Prevalence for the U.S
I'm quite far from a vegan, but eating all you mentioned + waffles with syrup really is too much for my stomach. Some salad/tomatoes/cucumber next to that would have helped.
samsonradu··on Obesity and Overweight Prevalence for the U.S
Same here, I was chasing asian street food for breakfast. From my touristy experience US breakfasts consist of no vegetables and all sorts of sweets.
samsonradu··on Why Can’t Riding Bikes in America Just Be Normal?
Does help though, you can get away with way less workouts per week if you cycle every day. Most people barely workout anyway so it would definitely be an improvement.
samsonradu··on Reasons to think that, in terms of influence if not wealth, Facebook has peaked
From what I've seen it's Instagram. Expected since everyone and their network are already linked with their Facebook accounts, switch is quite smooth. For now it's also cleaner, more image-oriented than video and less ad-polluted.
samsonradu··on Reasons to think that, in terms of influence if not wealth, Facebook has peaked
Well it certainly is a business decision. Likely Facebook knows better when it needs to canibalize its own product and squeeze the most profit out of it then move on.

Instagram is now the social place to be.

samsonradu··on How a Medical Catastrophe Can Bankrupt a Life
These are also the most impactful on the quality of life I might add.
samsonradu··on U.S. To Probe Apple Over Updates That Slow Older iPhones
I think this wasn’t really news for most people, it’s been taken as granted among my friends that you DON’T update an older iPhone in order to keep it in good shape. If this news had been released an year ago I’d have thought it is just capitalism 101, maximize profits. But there are software failures among all latest Apple platforms, OSX High Sierra is terrible on my 2yo MacBook Pro, I can’t think that is also intended for profit maximization. Looking forward to the conclusion.
samsonradu··on U.S. Regulators to Subpoena Crypto Exchange Bitfinex, Tether
Dodging regulation, in that many exchanges don’t touch money but tether instead.
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