shadowerm

I am not a software engineer and I made working stock charting software with react/python/typescript in April 2023 when chatGPT4 came out, without really knowing typescript almost at all. Of course, after awhile it was impossible to update/add anything and basically fell apart because I don't know what I am doing.

That is going to be 2 years ago before you know it. Sonnet is a better at using more obscure python libraries but beyond that the improvement over chatgpt4 is not that much.

I never tried chatGPT4 with Julia or R but the current models are pretty bad with both.

Personally, I think OpenAI made a brilliant move to release 3.5 and then 4 a few months later. It made it feel like AGI was just around the corner at that pace.

Imagine what people would have thought in April 2023 if you told them that in December 2024 there would be a $200 a month model.

I waited forever for Sora and it is complete garbage. OpenAI was crafting this narrative about putting Hollywood out of business when in reality these video models are nearly useless for anything much more than social media posts about how great the models are.

It is all besides the point anyway. The way to future proof yourself is to be intellectually curious and constantly learning, no matter what field you are in or what you are doing. Probably have to reinvent your career a few times if you want to or not too.

I haven't really used agentic AI yet and I am already completely sick of it.

40 questions to Saturday just sounds ridiculous.

I feel like on this trajectory my broker is soon going to be pretending my trailing stop is an AI agent monitoring when to get out of the trade "in the background".

He is just giving the audience what it wants to hear.

There is a huge collective denial of how bad progress is stalling out because the economy and markets have basically shoved all in on AGI.

There is really no option here but to keep the poker face and bluff going , hoping to not get called as long as possible.

This all really has nothing to do with extroversion to me.

We are talking about what is essentially sales and marketing skills.

I am the life of the party but I would never try to freelance because I hate sales and marketing so much.

This is all really asking how to start a business without having to do sales and marketing. Obviously, that is not going to work.

One can either gain these skills or do something else.

I just don't know if this is true.

The music programming language Csound is a good test.

There is not a huge amount of csound code online, but what is online is going to work.

The models are just terrible with csound. They can not mix and match at all. They can't abstract at all.

An even better test is to have the LLM try to make a piece of music in a certain style in csound. That is when you can see that the model is not abstracting the concepts at all.

Zero. none. nada.

Of course, it gives the probablistic next token prediction but because none of this is in the training data, the most probable output is basically noise/nonsense.

In general, I think we highly underestimate how hard it is to come up with things that are not in the training data.

I will have to watch it again. I only watched it once when it came out, at a time when Clockwork Orange was my favorite movie.

I remember it being beautiful and interesting visually(and of course the incredible backwards opera music ritual scene) while missing the plot so completely after reading this article and some of the comments.

This is my first weekend with no subscription to a model since the day chatGPT4 came out.

I feel like I got to a point of increasingly diminishing returns from the models. I know what they are good at and what they are not good at so I started avoiding what they are not good at.

It reminds me of Jaron Lanier saying years ago that we have to be on guard to not start acting stupid to make AI seem smarter. I had surely started doing that.

This is quite a nice feeling. I can still learn things the model sucks at. I could feel a creep coming into my head that there was no point in learning something the model wasn't good at.

The models are amazing at reinventing the wheel in React. Mapping this as if it scales to all human activity though is completely delusional.

Exactly. This is the type of person I avoid like the plague in real life.

The problem is all much deeper really.

Economics, sociology, psychology, even ecology in relation to humans are all really one subject. Then to make matters worse we are using the tools of reductionist linear science to study the already artificial subsets of this subject as independent, stationary, ergodic chunks, leading to obviously ridiculous conclusions when these chunks are reassembled.

Then somehow complex systems and non-linear dynamics has really failed to gain any traction in the popular discourse. Labeling the subject "Chaos theory" in the 80s was really really dumb.

On the other hand, the popular mind has a delusional view of science. As if there is an efficient market hypothesis for scientific truth. That scientific truth is instantaneously transmitted and discounted.

This is all just one of the many examples from history happening in real time of a decades long Kuhnian paradigm shift while the popular mind continues to argue outdated nonsense like the best way to measure aether and phlogiston.

This post is complete nonsense and you obviously haven't looked very hard.

You could start with the work of W Brian Arthur.

Unless by "discussed prominently" you mean youtubers who don't know what they are talking about. Then you would be correct.

What worked for me is getting in really good physical shape and good physical conditioning.

I can remember constantly thinking how much life sucked, no matter how good it actually was. Slowly, the negative thoughts just went away as my physical conditioning improved.

I think this is almost impossible to really do without some kind of metaphysical ingroup belief.

As someone without a religious bone in my body, it seems obvious this is what non-religious people have never really figured out how to do well.It is the achilles heel of the non-religious, rationalist.

The network almost needs to be based around some borderline ridiculous beliefs or it just ends up as a boring business networking cocktail party.

Burning Man is probably the best example of how to do all this well.

This sounds right from my experience.

I read words all day, everyday on a computer. I have read hundreds if not thousands of non-fiction books but for fiction in the last 30 years, have only read 1984.

It is like a club that I am not dressed for to gain admission. I am just not able to get into the story. 1984 was different though because I think I was half in the story, half comparing things to actual reality.

It really sucks because works like The Brothers Karamazov or War and Peace are just completely impossible for me and I know how much I am missing out.

All the great classic science fiction...tried many times, failed many times, know how much I am missing out.

As if all us peasants are using rotary phones while the plutocrats and oligarchs have these expensive iphones.

What is actually interesting is while the plutocrats and oligarchs have more leg room and better food on their private jet, the airplane itself doesn't move that much faster than me in coach.

You simply underestimate the financial mass of the mass market. These plutocrats and oligarchs only exist as part of a system with an even bigger mass market.

This time is not different.

This is not correct.

The loss of DVD sales has changed the type of movies that are being created.

Matt Damon himself has explained how Good Will Hunting would not get made today because of this.

It is really simple too if you think of yourself as the investor in the film getting pitched. "Will Hunting, a genius-level IQ but chooses to work as a janitor at MIT. When he solves a difficult graduate-level math problem, his talents are discovered by a professor"

Only an idiot would invest in that in 2024 but we are way past that. I imagine no one would even bother pitching that at all in 2024. Certainly wouldn't get a meeting with anyone.

There was a golden era of film not long ago and that era is gone forever. The Fountain might be the best example though. I love that movie but it lost millions of dollars even at the height of the golden era.

The future is going to be AI Batman vs Superman part 276.

It is also in the interest of all those involved with OnlyFans to highly exaggerate all the $$$ figures.

The people I have known that have made OnlyFans content made as little money as you would expect.

There has always been money in porn though with a giant power law distribution. The only difference now is that instead of some sleazebag porn producer trying convince some woman they are the next Jenna Jameson, we have this sleazebag technology platform doing the same thing.

It really depends what is meant by "the same instinct".

The reason I don't agree with the parent comment is because to truly believe in a Boltzmann brain would seem maximally nihilistic.

Many people truly believe in God/gods at their deepest level. While the Boltzmann brain is an interesting thought experiment, I don't think anyone really takes it to heart the same way a Christian believes in Jesus.

Even while I would probably give the Boltzman brain a far greater probability than most, people don't go around telling other people this is all just a momentary, random fluctuation.

Awesome. The book is such a bargain used then on Amazon with this.

No, The Computer Music Tutorial doesn't have any code as far as I remember. I know there is a second edition but not sure what is new in there.

The Csound book is so great though. It would be nice if the orc/sco on the CD that came with it were available. I have the book still but the CD is long gone and so is owning a CD rom drive.

I just came back to csound recently and I think it has taken me about 25 years to actually like the sco. If one is use to a piano roll/DAW, the sco seems utterly ridiculous.

The csound manual now though actually has good working examples too. If I remember, that was not the case when the csound book came out and part of what made it so great too.

No doubt. I was waiting so long for Sora but Runway already burned me out on AI video.

It was fun for a few days but far more limited than I would have ever expected.

Maybe Sora 5.0 will be something special. Right now though all these video models are basically shit.

This had always happened. Metallica is a great example of music that was once underground becoming huge and popular.

What changed is there is no new "underground" culture to take the place of what had become popular and mainstream.

Witch house in 2009 or so I think was the last gasp of the underground before shortly running out of air.

Now young people just doomscroll tiktok instead.