simianwords

The real reason they’re doing these gimmicks is far more interesting.

Whether they truly believe Claude is conscious or not is not important. It’s important to act that way and train the model that way because they believe it transfers to general intelligence and performance.

This is exactly why you see them doing other gimmicks like giving Claude the ability to end conversations and ban users.

Can you come up with a concrete prediction on what AI can’t do in math? Something testable.

Doesn't seem to be the case here: https://www.daniellitt.com/blog/2026/2/20/mathematics-in-the...

Disagree, there are in fact documented cases.

> I think I have been underrating the pace of model improvements. In March 2025 I made a bet with Tamay Besiroglu, cofounder of RL environment company Mechanize, that AI tools would not be able to autonomously produce papers I judge to be at a level comparable to that of the best few papers published in 2025, at comparable cost to human experts, by 2030. I gave him 3:1 odds at the time; I now expect to lose this bet.

https://www.daniellitt.com/blog/2026/2/20/mathematics-in-the...

“I’ve slowly updated my timelines over the past year…”

and

“I think I have been underrating the pace of model improvements. … I was not correctly calibrated as to the capabilities of existing models, let alone near-future models.”

I don't think that's true. Why is it that I see more people using "shaped" and "load bearing"?

yeah nothing changed in math. mathematicians are weeping for some strange reason (maybe paid by OpenAI to weep?). And Terry Tao is posting blogs on AI + Mathematics because he was bored (or because he was also paid by OpenAI).

I strongly feel most angst is because Mathematics has become yet another capital intensive game to play. Rather than a noble, purely intellectual practice.

Very good point. But I'm predicting that it would just be integrated into Hackerrank or some other platform.

on the contrary, I'm unhappy that I had to study in university without ChatGPT. I was unable to learn many things because I didn't have access to someone who could teach me and correct me quickly and I lost interest.

Time and time again, I see the same complaints. A new technology comes and it removes bottlenecks. The ideal person should be ecstatic with new capabilities being unlocked. But they are complaining. Why?

They don't trust their peers to use it properly and externalise the concerns to the technology itself.

> The problem is that the little chatbot in our pockets is making us more isolated and in so, it’s making us stray further from this humble goal: to learn

I don't understand the author here, ChatGPT (as admitted by herself) does help people learn. Far more than what was possible before. Her only complaint is that society is not able to leverage ChatGPT to further the spirit of physics, but that's on her on peers and not on the technology.

As usual, society adapts given enough time.

> commodity prices means low profits.

I still don't understand how models being commoditised implies the hardware (NVIDIA) itself being commoditised.

What is the exact mechanism that causes NVIDIA's profit to go lower?

Do you mean to suggest that the bubble popping will simultaneously commoditise models as well as inference hardware?

They are completely different layers and have almost zero correlation. I see no indication that hardware also gets commoditised.

why would the hardware layer bubble pop if the demand for hardware will still increase (or not change)?

I agree there's no low demand.

> The stock prices of 9/10 of the top S&P 500 stocks have significant AI exposure

not true.. only ~2-3% exposure at model layer. rest are at hardware layer..

I don’t buy this argument. Everyone who suggests there’s a bubble speaks about the excessive data center buildout, low demand, excessive debt financing.

All of these arguments don’t matter if you think demand will increase.

What bubble is left? Really. Just people with OpenAI or Anthropic exposure? Not that high.

Do you personally think that Anthropic is fear moengering and hyping their product for marketing reasons

what's the point of killing a person then? if no one even knows it happened, its for pure retribution which is arguably worse

if this is true, what separates a good llm from bad?

> The purpose of the death penalty itself is vengeance

That can be changed if you live stream it and then it becomes deterrence

If I were to place a bet that we would have opus 5 level models that fit in 10G by 2030, would you bet against that 10:1 odds against your favour?

If you won’t take that bet, it’s irresponsible to ignore the possibility.

True. Same commenters who sneer and suggest that it’s hype today will ask for Dario to be jailed when this attack will happen in the wild sometime in the future.

It’s bizarre. Same commenters who would say it’s marketing or hype would again complain when models show the same type of activity in the wild. At that point the same commenters would ask to jail Dario.

It’s a very common pattern and there’s no coherence here. The only common thing is “AI bad” and all commentary is downstream

Other examples: Dario said a lot of devs might lose their job. People sneered at him saying he was hyping his product. Now they complain he was right.

Dario talked about possibility of AI autonomously hacking websites. People sneered then. Complain now that it’s true.

I’m uncomfortable with this. But on the other hand, executing someone just for the sake of it and not showing it to anyone else is much worse. At least this has a purpose beyond vengeance

They are just doing this to hype their product so that they can sell stocks before IPO! SMH it’s so evident

ok fair i meant freely in a different way. but you get my point..

The agents obviously.. I thought that was obvious.

Anthorpic invanted new version control to do hype marketing and cash in the IPO before the bubble busrts (true story)

I think its pretty straightforward no? If agents are doing all of the work, they'd probably need to not have bottlenecks. This is going to be any company in the future, not just Anthropic. Wouldn't you agree.?

I think there's a market for a fundamentally privacy focused AI hosting company that just hosts Open models. I think Proton has something like this.

If someone's thinks their ideas are so precious, they should be using the privacy focused ones.

This shouldldve been a Plugin or Sign in with ChatGPT thing!

Y combinator