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skybrian

27,929 karma · joined April 5, 2009

Retired software engineer and amateur accordionist.

Accordion videos I like: https://mastodon.social/@skybrian/tagged/accordionsongs

Social media: https://bsky.app/profile/skybrian.bsky.social https://tildes.net/

Blog (inactive): https://skybrian.substack.com/

submissionscomments
skybrian··on Anthropic's internal AI use, at retail prices, now exceeds its employee pay
It depends on your assumptions. When Google is in "space crunch" mode, there are opportunity costs. Otherwise, there aren't, because you could do both.

You could also look at the opportunity cost of not letting Deepmind do quite as much research. How much is additional research worth on the margin? There will be diminishing returns.

skybrian··on Anthropic reports $17B in Q3 revenue, commitments of $895B in revised S-1
It's a good question: why are the GAAP rules what they are? It needs to be investigated, though.

The reason it happens in multiple quarters is likely that Anthropic's valuation has increased in multiple quarters. Every time Anthropic's valuation increases, the convertible bonds are worth more money. Other shareholders have "lost" money compared to what would have happened if Anthropic had sold regular bonds instead of convertible bonds. Except that no, the value of their shares is increasing too. An increased valuation is actually good for them.

That's how equity works. If someone owns 1% of a company and its valuation doubles, their share is worth twice as much and so is yours and we wouldn't even normally consider it to be diluting the other shareholders.

So the question is whether convertible bonds are worth more than regular bonds and the answer is, yes, absolutely, but they are partially equity, and it's the equity part that's increasing when the company's valuation is increasing.

And if the company's valuation went down then the value of the equity part of the convertible bonds would decrease. Maybe that would be a profit by GAAP rules?

skybrian··on Anthropic reports $17B in Q3 revenue, commitments of $895B in revised S-1
It’s like shareholder dilution from issuing more stock or stock options. Existing shareholders might have a smaller share of the company than they thought. The accounting is weird.

We aren’t shareholders, though, so why should we care?

skybrian··on U.S. workers took home their smallest share of capital since at least 1947
Pre-industrial societies were built on agriculture so whatever happens will be different. Recommended reading:

Pre-Industrial Societies: Anatomy of the Pre-Modern World https://www.amazon.com/dp/1780747411

skybrian··on I Am the Reason OpenAI Is Killing Unlimited Chats
But if you get a Claude subscription, don't you have to use Claude Code? Why not pay the $20/month for OpenAI and use your favorite coding agent?

I've been doing that and it seems like quite a deal.

skybrian··on U.S. workers took home their smallest share of capital since at least 1947
Instead of looking at share you could look at each trend separately. They're both going up, but corporate profits are going up more:

Corporate profits versus labor income https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2018/08/corporate-profits-v...

Why is labor going up? In part due to more hours worked:

Nonfarm Business Sector: Hours Worked for All Workers https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOANBS

If you divide labor income by hours worked, you should get hourly compensation:

Nonfarm Business Sector: Real Hourly Compensation for All Workers https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPRNFB

Working-age population is leveling off, though: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFWA64TTUSQ647S

One would expect that retirees are mostly living off capital rather than labor. Wouldn't an increased elderly population result in a lower labor share?

Or maybe something else. This paper suggests that as workers get older, they switch jobs less and get fewer raises:

"We find that a 60-year-old worker receives half the marginal product relative to when they were 20. Together with recent demographic trends, this can account for 59% of the recent decline in labor’s share of earnings in the United States."

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/04/staff-working-paper-2023...

And no matter how you slice it, this is all working with national averages, which tell us little about anyone's personal situation.

skybrian··on Nurses Sound Alarm as 'Uber for Nursing' Apps Push to Deregulate Healthcare
Yes, it’s not specific to nursing. Labor costs are often high in the US, which goes a long way to explain why labor-intensive services cost more in the US, relative to other goods and services.
skybrian··on Nurses Sound Alarm as 'Uber for Nursing' Apps Push to Deregulate Healthcare
I don't really know, but according to one graph, US nursing salaries are second only to Luxembourg:

https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/11/health-at-a-gla...

skybrian··on Copper – A minimal low-level programming language with OOP and generics
It seems pretty tasteful, but I don't see anything about character sets. How does it support Unicode? What does a string of 16-bit characters represent?

There do seem to be some Unicode constants in the standard library:

https://tibleiz.net/browser.html?path=std&title=Standard%20L...

skybrian··on First response from the Project Suncatcher prototype satellite
Thanks!
skybrian··on First response from the Project Suncatcher prototype satellite
Could you provide a source for that claim?
skybrian··on Gemini 4 Carbon
Maybe ChatGPT could figure it out?
skybrian··on New iMac with M6
It seems unfortunate to become so sensitive to frame rate that you can only buy high-end equipment. I wonder how that can be avoided?
skybrian··on Solar power is becoming bigger than nuclear
I thought that post was interesting when I read it over a year ago, but the startup seems to have gone dark since then.
skybrian··on Switzerland. Block by block. At 1:1 scale
They spent the tokens so you don’t have to. This is clearly AI-generated but doesn’t look low-effort, even with heavy AI assistance.

But if you’re sure it’s easy, why not give it a try?

skybrian··on Lego collaboration with Daft Punk
Yes that's true, but if someone were to infer that there are therefore no retired GenXers, they would be wrong.
skybrian··on Lego collaboration with Daft Punk
But see also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIRE_movement
skybrian··on America has lost 200k of jobs in media, film and the arts. How much is AI?
In the US, there are a lot more rich people than there used to be [1] and they're often driving prices up because they can afford to pay. (Most obviously in real estate.)

[1] https://pages.skybrian.com/2026/us-households-by-income-band...

skybrian··on No signs of AI payoff outside the tech sector
Sure, but are there any examples of hospitals where lowered costs for transcriptions are significant enough to affect their financial reports? How much of an expense was it in the first place?
skybrian··on Every AI model has the same "controversial" take on humans
On the other hand, contrarianism isn't a shortcut to the truth, either. You still have to investigate.
skybrian··on OpenShell – A safe, private runtime for fleets of autonomous AI agents
It seems like some kind of network logging would be useful? Even if you don't catch it, you'd want to know what it did.
skybrian··on Google cleared 300 hectares of Finnish forest
Do you have a source for this? I'm curious about the details.
skybrian··on What's Getting Pwned
Such policies might not be legal in the US:

> The indefensible extension is that banks aren’t liable for defrauded customers. That is a potential policy regime, chosen by the polity of many democratic nations. The United States is not one of those nations. Our citizens, through their elected representatives, made the considered choice that financial institutions would need to provide extraordinary levels of safety in electronic payments. In reliance upon that regime, the people of the United States transacted many trillions of dollars over payment rails, which was and is very lucrative for all considered.

...

> With a limited number of carveouts (e.g. wire transfers), Reg E is intentionally drafted to be future-proof against changes in how Americans transact. This is why, when banks argue that some new payments rail is exempt because it is “different,” the correct legal response is usually some variation of: doesn’t matter—that’s Reg E.

https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/regulation-e/

skybrian··on DuckDB 2.0.0 LTS “Cinnamon Teal”
I wonder how terrible would it be to use DuckDB as the main database (running transactions) for a small project?
skybrian··on Tsrs: A Port of TypeScript to Rust
Another advantage of AI, though, is that it becomes easier to maintain more than one TypeScript compiler. Perhaps there's some benefits to having some diversity?
skybrian··on Demographic "doomsday" misses the mark
According to some people, AI will take most of those jobs anyway, so maybe it all works out in the end :)
skybrian··on I no longer care to work on any Ruby gems so I've archived all my repositories
It sounds like you're making a claim to someone else's profits with a very thin rationale for why you had anything to do with it. Basically, claiming something that never was yours and has next to nothing to do with anything you worked on.
skybrian··on I no longer care to work on any Ruby gems so I've archived all my repositories
Stealing labor itself isn’t actually a thing. Your wages could be stolen, except - what wages? Maybe the output from your labor could be stolen, but not if nothing material was lost. If you can’t point to a specific intellectual property violation, you have no case.

Did they steal Wikipedia? Wikipedia is still there.

skybrian··on Credit where credit is due
I suspect that the mathematicians who adapt best to AI will treat it like astronomers treat a telescope, as a source of possibly-interesting data to be analyzed. Maybe it looks like finished output, but that doesn’t mean it’s ready to show.
skybrian··on I no longer care to work on any Ruby gems so I've archived all my repositories
If you mean publishing open source code, they didn’t steal it. We gave it away. Generosity has always been vulnerable to “exploitation,” but some of apparently understood that risk better than others.
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