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snake_doc

687 karma · joined April 18, 2022

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snake_doc··on Object over Northern Canada shot down, Trudeau says
F-22 entered service 2005

Air to air kills since entered service:

2005-2022: 0

2023: 3 (all in last 7 days)

snake_doc··on Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon
This is slightly misleading,

Apple relies a lot on contractors. Those 2 IR folks likely have 2-3 comms firms on retainer. Those 7 treasury folks likely have an entire team staffed at a major bank.

Some companies decide to source labor in house, others don’t.

snake_doc··on US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast
F-22 entered service 2005

Air to air kills since entered service:

2005-2022: 0

2023: 2

snake_doc··on Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?
Looking P/E without sector context is a bit strange. The entire comm services sector is down, it’s not just GOOGL…

Since I can’t paste screenshots from my terminal, you can see the sector P/Es on page 6:

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/performance-repo...

snake_doc··on They say that stocks go down during the day and up at night
The Overnight Drift: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2021/05/the-ov...

There’s a bunch of speculation on why this happens: https://www.ft.com/content/1cc17824-3077-4e39-9a99-cbccc83a2...

snake_doc··on Starting February 9, we will no longer support free access to the Twitter API
API reads/writes don’t generate ad impressions. It’s really that simple. All the bot nonsense is rhetoric.
snake_doc··on WiFi Routers Used to Produce 3D Images of Humans
Pretty similar to an older Nature paper, using smart speakers to monitor heart rate.

Wang, A., Nguyen, D., Sridhar, A.R. et al. Using smart speakers to contactlessly monitor heart rhythms. Commun Biol 4, 319 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-021-01824-9

snake_doc··on Startup is fining employees for contacting colleagues on vacation
The company did receive real cash priced at the valuation. That’s how the valuation came to be, at its last capital fundraising round.
snake_doc··on FAA NOTAM System Outage
For anyone looking for previous FAA outages: In 2014, an U-2 plane’s flight plan crashed LAX’s ERAM system because the system ran out of memory.

https://www.oig.dot.gov/sites/default/files/FAA%20Actions%20...

snake_doc··on Why does private equity get to play make-believe with prices?
The majority of private equity (incl. VC funds) funds are close-ended by definition [1].

Once the fundraising completes for a fund, no “new” money is allowed into the fund. New investors can invest with a PE firms in 2 ways: invest in a new fund, or purchase shares of an existing fund on the small secondaries market [2].

So no, in most cases PE portfolio managers are not going to track “new” vs “existing” money within a fund.

There are exceptions, ie there are PE asset classes that are open-ended (ie. The infamous Blackstone REIT [3]). Open ended funds are more common for public equity hedge funds.

[1] https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-ba...

[2] https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1zspcywbpn2h7...

[3] https://on.ft.com/3Zc7Wku

snake_doc··on Amazon to Lay Off over 17,000 Workers, More Than First Planned
Instead of your speculation, let me be the expert to explain your speculation is wrong.

1. ASC 842 states that lease liabilities should be measured by lease terms that are non-cancellable. In this case, these are Amazon’s non-cancellable leases.

2. The average lease term remaining is ~9-11 years for Amazon.

3. Lease liabilities are present value calculations, ie. They are not as you suggested 50 years x $1M/yr. They represent the present value of the discounted cash flows. The discount rates are disclosed.

Leases notes from latest Amazon 10-Q: https://www.bamsec.com/filing/101872422000023/1?cik=1018724&...

snake_doc··on Amazon to Lay Off over 17,000 Workers, More Than First Planned
Yesterday Jan 3, Amazon borrowed another $8B at 0.75% plus SOFR (which is basically Fed Funds rate at ~4.3%) through a short term credit facility.

Also, Amazon has ~$69B in long term lease liabilities. That’s about ~3x the combined long term lease liabilities of Walmart and Costco (~$20B combined). Walmart and Costco are the world’s #1 and #3 retailer, Amazon being #2.

From the beginning when Jassy took the job, the problem has always been the cost of the excess warehouse capacity. Once they realized the true demand from this holiday season, they can now rightsize capacity for 2024 and beyond. Until then, they need to tighten the belt. Just like if you realized you swallowed a bigger mortgage than you can handle.

“The last issue relates to our fixed cost leverage. Despite still seeing strong customer demand and expansion of our FBA business, we currently have excess capacity in our fulfillment and transportation network. Capacity decisions are made years in advance, and we made conscious decisions in 2020 and early 2021 to not let space be a constraint on our business.”

- Brian Olsavsky CFO Apr 28, 2022 earnings call

snake_doc··on Fidelity marks down the value of its Twitter stake by 56%
Mortgages are not typically corporate debt. Mortgages are by definition collateralized. Therefore, there are covenants triggers related to the value of the collateral.

The vast majority of corporate debt (bonds) is unsecured. There is no collateral.

https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/01/27/the-decline-in-se...

snake_doc··on Fidelity marks down the value of its Twitter stake by 56%
While the margin loans were originally part of the commitment letter in April 2022, Musk later decided against them and sold more Tesla stock instead to fund the deal with cash. None of the Twitter debt is backed by Tesla stock.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-26/elon-c...

snake_doc··on Fidelity marks down the value of its Twitter stake by 56%
Banks cannot recall LBO debt because they think the debtor’s value decreases. That would be ludicrous.

Like most corporate debt, the debtor must service the debt repayment schedules while following financial covenants (addition rules on performance ratios). If debtor fails to make payment or breaches covenants, it can lead to a technical default.

In this case, most of Twitter’s LBO debt haven’t been syndicated (ie. The banks still hold them and haven’t securitized them to be sold to other investors.) Twitter no longer has a credit rating (Moody dropped them in Nov, S&P dropped them in Dec; both citing insufficient information to assess credit risk). Without a credit rating, most bond investors simply won’t buy the debt because it wouldn’t meet their investment guidelines.

Also, there can absolutely be margin calls on equity holders of private equity if their stakes were financed on margin. ie. If a hedge fund (most are leveraged at least 100% for financial reasons) chipped in, their margin creditor (ie their prime broker) can absolutely request the fund to post more collateral.

snake_doc··on Wells Fargo to pay $3.7B for mistreating customers
>In a $25T economy, 13 new banks (roughly 1 for every 4 states) effectively rounds down to zero.

Using this logic, in an infinitely large universe, your comment’s importance effectively rounds down to zero. Arbitrary picking economy output to measure regulatory regime efficiency is ludicrous.

snake_doc··on Regulating Crypto: How we move forward as an industry from here
“2. Enforce a level playing field Getting regulatory clarity would be a good first step, but if we don't enforce these rules evenly, both domestically and abroad, we will not have a path forward.”

How ironic, so a crypto exchange wishes the U.S. government, an immensely powerful centralized entity crypto was designed to omit, makes everyone else play nice on the global stage. How would the US do that? Hmm… guessing regulating flow of dollars.

Ha!

snake_doc··on Wells Fargo to pay $3.7B for mistreating customers
De novo banks open all the time. 13 new de novo started business in 2022 [1]

New management is important, and in this case Wells Fargo has had 4 CEOs since the scandal, and multiple board chairpersons. There has been significant turnover on its board and executive team. [2]

[1] https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights...

[2] https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/wells-fargos-long-r...

snake_doc··on BlackRock 2023 Outlook [pdf]
Except there are hundreds of billions of dumb money that are managed by very small amount of people, it’s not economically reasonable for them to do their own primary research. They mostly invest into other funds (ie. Some may be BlackRock funds.).

It’s widely accepted that sell side search (like this) reflect on average the market view. As a result, most of these insights on average are likely priced in. You won’t “create alpha” from following them. However, most dumb money just want to track the market, thus it’s perfectly fine for them to follow sell-side research in aggregate.

Also, on your comment comparing BlackRock YTD performance to XLF, that’s not a valuable comparison. XLF composed mostly of banks, which are highly levered (by definition of fractional reserve banking). BlackRock is not a bank, it does not have the same leverage as JP Morgan.

ie. Chase has $3.7T in assets, $3.5T in liabilities (mostly deposits), and $400B in market cap (shareholders equity).

Liabilities to equity is ~8.75.

BlackRock has 115B in assets, 77B in liabilities, ~100B in market cap (shareholders equity).

Liabilities to equity is 0.77.

Leverage is risky, higher risk firms demand higher returns, this is the very foundation of capital asset pricing.

snake_doc··on FX swap debt a $80T 'blind spot', global regulator says
But in a sense, only the cost of capital is at risk, not the capital borrowed. The 80T number is capital borrowed. It’s definitely worthy of skepticism.

It’s definitely a liquidity risk given the short term and principal swaps requirements, hence mostly a central bank issue as a backstop. But potential losses in economic terms seem smaller.

snake_doc··on FX swap debt a $80T 'blind spot', global regulator says
Most of the swaps are foreign entities borrowing US dollars to hedge their own currencies’ FX volatility. This simply conveys the incredible US dollar dominance in global markets.

Also because FX swaps are collateralized with up front principal, the leverage is very low. The primary risk is short term liquidity and not default risk, which makes this a central bank issue, hence the BIS warning.

snake_doc··on Amazon's Alexa on Track to Lose $10B This Year
In addition to the R&D, the average Amazon Device (Echo, FireTV, Fire Tablet, Kindle) is sold at a loss. Amazon doesn’t make a gross profit on their main branded devices. Ring, eero, blink are slightly different. Kindle is the closest to break even.
snake_doc··on Amazon CEO Andy Jassy says layoffs will continue into next year
It’s a cost-minimization strategy. I’m sure one of the 300+ economists at AMZN had to write a 6-pager on this question.

Layoffs are labor level reductions amid ongoing or expected periods of excess labor capacity. It’s almost a classic supply chain/operations management problem. Classically an Amazon core competence and problem at Amazon [1].

There are both shortage and excess costs to labor levels (ie. labor inventory) vs labor demand, combined consider as a supply-demand mismatch cost. To minimize this cost is to create a perfectly coordinated supply chain/inventory system through minimizing shortages and excesses.

Statistically speaking, it is incredibly difficult for a company to perfectly return to that optimal level of supply in 1 single action because the optimal level is difficult to measure in the short run. Therefore, by monitoring supply and demand of labor over time, you are able to make more precise adjustments to return to optimal level of labor.

Sadly, this strategy implies Amazon likely used a lower percentile estimate of required labor reductions for initial layoffs, meaning the mean/median estimate of required labor reductions is likely higher than already announced.

[1] https://www.vox.com/recode/23170900/leaked-amazon-memo-wareh...

snake_doc··on Where has the passive radar code gone?
Explanation of the software and hardware setup: https://spectrum.ieee.org/passive-radar-with-sdr
snake_doc··on 'Golden parachutes' for fired Twitter executives worth $122M, research firm says
Offer letters are public information for chief executives: Agrawal’s CEO offer letter: https://www.bamsec.com/filing/119312521342255/2?cik=1418091

An involuntary termination contract: https://www.bamsec.com/filing/156459018003046/2?cik=1418091

snake_doc··on A follow-up on our analysis of the anomalous restriction map of SARS-CoV-2
Obligatory p-value snippet from the ASA:

   P-values do not measure the probability that the studied hypothesis is true, or the probability that the data were produced by random chance alone.

Ronald L. Wasserstein & Nicole A. Lazar (2016) The ASA Statement on p-Values: Context, Process, and Purpose, The American Statistician, 70:2, 129-133, DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2016.1154108
snake_doc··on Hyundai investigating child labor in its U.S. supply chain
> Noone has to make a plea deal

Yes, that’s right, most accused do not “make a plea deal”. The prosecution offers the deal to avoid a labor intensive trial.

Also, prosecution is allowed to deceive (lie) to trick the accused to accept plea deals. There is no evidence burden once the accused pleas guilty. For example, the prosecutor can legally claim they have a mountain of evidence, and once the accused pleas, there’s no requirement for the “evidence” to be provided. https://readingroom.law.gsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=...

Yea, they can refuse the offer. For an accused that cannot afford bail, they may have 2 options: take the plea deal and start serving the sentence right away, or refuse the deal and be incarcerated for an undetermined amount of time awaiting trial.

Either case, many accused faces incarceration whether they accept the deal or not.

snake_doc··on Hyundai investigating child labor in its U.S. supply chain
> Forced labor as a proportionate punishment for a crime you were found guilty of by a fair trial is not a problem in my book.

97% of federal and 94% of state convictions are not convicted through a trial. They are convicted through plea deals. Plea deals function as the shadow justice system of the U.S. where prosecutors have overwhelming coercive advantages to shape the crime and punishment. They play judge and executioner.

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/prisons-are-packed-bec...

snake_doc··on Hyundai investigating child labor in its U.S. supply chain
Most prisoners are charged a per-diem for food and housing.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/04/1084452251/the-vast-majority-...

snake_doc··on Hyundai investigating child labor in its U.S. supply chain
I agree in principle. However, as a piece of empirical evidence, you can peruse the comments in this HN post. Compare comments that express outrage for child labor and outrage for forced prison labor. Some HN readers are clearly picking to not be outraged at the latter.
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