solaxun

What's your point? He can be short without betting on a 90% drop, my reply was strictly pointing out that his claim wasn't necessarily that a drop of that magnitude would happen, but if it did that the economic fallout on the rest of the system would be nil.

It's a complicated relationship, but yes stocks generally perform well in inflationary environments, certainly better than bonds which unequivocally get crushed. However, often what happens along with rate increases is tighter lending standards, increased borrowing costs, less ability to refinance at attractive rates, etc. It's also more difficult to raise equity when investors have reasonable alternatives in other asset classes. Suddenly investors start caring about tired and old things like "valuation" again, and "price to eyeballs" or "tweets per minute" matter less.

For companies that have been riding the wave of free money in perpetuity, that's a bitter pill to swallow - when it's time to refinance they aren't prepared to pay the new bill. More dangerously, they simply may not be able to refinance at all if credit markets dry up (2008), and that is when it gets really ugly.

Stock prices are as high as they are right now because there are no reasonable alternatives. It's the "least bad" option.

I think what he actually said was that if the price dropped 90%, there would be no broader economic fallout, all else constant.

People continually reference the lack of inflation (as traditionally measured by the CPI price basket) as a reason to not be concerned with the huge increase in the money supply we've experienced.

I think we are experiencing extreme inflation, just not in CPI goods, but rather capital assets. Stocks, bonds, real-estate, all are completely disconnected from any reality right now... traditional valuation is irrelevant and we are now trading purely on sentiment, ala meme-stonks.

Just look at the IPO landscape, and the ridiculous market caps of companies who not only have never had positive net income, but in fact have an increasing loss every year! They can continue doing this because the capital markets basically throw free money at them, it's easy to raise debt at low rates and issue additional shares if needed.

As they say "don't fight the fed", and timing the market is impossible, but I can't even begin to fathom the blood-bath that will ensue if rates were increased to a reasonable level.

I'm sorry and I don't mean to throw stones but this is an incredibly myopic view.

- It would be unethical to issue debt the company doesn't have the cash flows to pay without assuming refinancing is possible (the ENTIRE high yield market)

- It would be unethical to buy back debt in the open market at a discount ... they should pay what they borrowed!

- It would be unethical to raise capital by selling overinflated stock, the proceeds of which may lead to the life or death of the company.

The board has a fiduciary responsibility to it's shareholders to take the best course of action to maximize share-price. Assuming they actually could pull off a capital raise in the short amount of time the reddit bubble lasted, it would arguably be unethical NOT to do so. They didn't raise not because they are altruistic saints, but because it's an involved process that typically can't be done spur of the moment without planning.

Now do mentions per minute (or most granular interval possible) correlated with price :)

Separating concerns the way you describe can be accomplished leveraging the polymorphism mechanisms in an OO language (objects and subclasses) or just as easily in a functional style (multimethods, protocols, interfaces).

Show me an example of something you think is decoupled in OO style which could not be similarly decoupled in FP, and I'll give you the FP version which does the same.

Not saying one is better than the other, but you can definitely keep your code decoupled in both styles.

You got balls, yes the IVOL is insane and that's a nice premium, but if for some reason you have a repeat of today, you're out $20K plus. This thing will crater, yeah, but shorting it is insane and option volatility is ridiculous right now.

Several. HLA-B27 is an indicator, but you can't diagnose definitively without seeing joint deterioration on X-Ray or MRI. Typically for Ankylosing Spondylitis it's the SI joint that has the most damage, which for me is fine so far. The problems I have are more peripheral joints, and the only changes I have on X-Ray are bone spurs at the insertion point of several tendons which can result from overuse so it's hard to attribute to a rheumatological condition with any certainty.

Most recently a rheumatological told me some people are just "bone formers" which might be true, but is still frustrating to hear as it kind of came across as very hand-wavy.

On my out of commission days, I'm foggy but I can still get stuff done, I just won't be able to operate at the level I could on a good day. It's frustrating because you know your capabilities, but you just can't get there. Imagine running a 6 minute mile, and the next day you give it 100% and 8 minutes is a struggle.

I try to prioritize creative work, e.g. building something new, really hard problems, etc. for "good days", and I focus on work that I've already begun and can see the completion path for on bad days. I do occasionally have days where I'm totally useless, and if that happens I'll just do mundane rote tasks that I've been putting off.

Very interesting to hear your experiences. I have long suspected some sort of autoimmune condition (specifically undifferentiated spondyloarthropathy) resulting in me having similar symptoms. My first symptom was tendonitis, but I was 22 back then (37 now) and very physically active so doctors just attributed it to overuse. Then both elbows tricep tendons developed enthesis and ossified at the insertion point. I have similar enthesis in basically every major joint now, and they still think it's from the exercise. I did push my limits with weights when younger but it's difficult to imagine that being the cause of all the issues I've had.

Similar to you, CRP tests were fine and bloodwork was all good, however they did find I was positive for the HLA-B27 antigen which is a known marker for autoimmune conditions and only present in about 5% of the population, but present in 90-95% of those with spondylitis, so there's one red flag. The issue is as you mention, there is no definitive diagnoses until they see joint damage on X-ray, and by then you've missed years of potential intervening treatment.

Eventually I developed brain fog like you describe, but it was gradual and difficult to tell if the symptoms were related. It's not always debilitating but I'd say 4/5 days I'm foggy to varying degree, and then one day where I'm about 3x sharper. I've learned to just ride the productivity wave those days and do mundane stuff other days.

I thought it may be sleep related, and although getting more sleep does seem to give me a higher probability of a "good" day, it's not a panacea. There are days where even after 10 hours I'm still foggy, and I can tell immediately upon waking up how the day will go.

While I'm sympathetic to those who say googling your way to diagnoses can be harmful (and no doubt it may frustrate some doctors), I don't entirely agree. You have to live with your body and mind 24/7, and you have one and only one patient to care for - yourself. You will always be more motivated to find the answer than your doctor. A doctor cannot read your mind or feel your pain, and simply pattern matching symptoms is something anybody can do. It can never hurt IMO to go into the discussion informed and ask pointed questions.

The medical field is an evolving science, they don't have all the answers, they don't even have most of the answers.

Always look forward to these so I can compare my solutions afterwards. Sometimes it's almost frustrating to see how clean and concise the mess I made could have been, but I do learn a lot. It's like he gets as close to golfing as possible, without the obfuscation.

Too bad he punted on 20... one of the few difficult problems this year. Usually the hard problems are where you really see the contrast between his solutions and the rest of us plebs. Do I sense a hit of frustration in his comment? ;)

"too tedious for too little reward...." "sea monster as characters inelegant"

I've wondered this a few times myself - I like learning languages (even if not directly applicable to paid work) and Prolog has been on the list, but I wonder if the concepts are better left on their own rather than packaged into a DSL.

If I understand constraint propagation and backtracking, why not just use those concepts when it fits the problem rather than an entirely new language meant specifically for that narrow range of problems?

Ding ding ding!

Not a lawyer, but I doubt it's a case. Endowments have much longer investment horizons and typically lower risk appetite that wouldn't typically have an investment policy tilted towards 100% equities. They likely have a fair amount of investment in fixed income, which is always going to under-perform equities in the long run.

That said, ~5.5% below the market every year is a pretty shitty result, at least worth putting someone's feet to the fire over.

Seems like they are RELUs lately :/

Purely out of curiosity - is there something about them that makes them better than other optimization algorithms, e.g. simulated annealing, random local search etc, or for continuous functions gradient descent and the like. Seems like GA's are always glossed over as a relic of past times, it's pretty interesting to hear about them in practice somewhere!

I posted this as well in the last thread about this class, but since we're discussing it again there is an active study group doing the labs in Clojure on reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/mit6824clojure/

Several of the labs have been ported in full (map-reduce, first part of RAFT lab), including test scripts. Please join if this is interesting to you.. the more the merrier!

There is an active Clojure study group that just formed, for anybody interested. I've started lab 1 and am finding it incredibly interesting so far.

For anybody who has completed the 2020 spring version (the lab code recently changed), did you have any issues with the lab 1 test script? I think they left out the merging files part when porting to the 2020 version which causes tests to fail.

https://www.reddit.com/r/mit6824clojure/comments/hfm0hk/rmit...

Uhhh... yeah but that's true of almost every language feature, right? I love pattern matching but I think the point is that Python risks turning into a "kitchen sink" language with too many syntactical forms to keep in ones head if this continues.

I'm so tired of this whole "xyz lang isn't a REAL lisp". First off, what's your definition of "real lisp", second off, who cares? What point are you trying to make? Is the language somehow less useful because it doesn't meet your arbitrary definition of what it means to be a "real" lisp? I imagine you sitting at home in a smoking jacket with some smug smirk typing this out.

Saying that a language isn't a "real lisp" because it doesn't use cons cells is like saying a map implemented using a red-black tree isn't a "real" map because it doesn't use an array of nodes.

Sadly I feel like it's the opposite for me, most days I'm running at half speed, and on a "good" day it's like I have a different brain - I process things more rapidly, I'm more optimistic, I get more done, etc.

I suspect it's sleep related because I can generally feel how the day is gonna go within 10 minutes of being awake, but the frustrating part is that hours of sleep seems to have little bearing on how refreshed I feel in the morning. There is some correlation there, but not enough to say it's all about the hours.

It's not sleep apnea or any known sleep disorder either, so please withhold the ensuing deluge of HN faux Dr's and their google-fu diagnoses ;)

I don't recall this being an issue much in my 20's, maybe this is what aging is like. I've had to resort to just taking advantage of good days and doing as much work as possible, and then on bad days I'll just do mundane work I normally would otherwise not want to do.

So at least for me - yes having good and bad days is entirely normal.

That analogy works when everybody is doing the same thing and it's common knowledge that the average person has their assets sitting in their castle, but we're talking about 2020 when that would be the exception, not the norm.

You're acting like I would go on hackernews and tell everybody where my money is or something...

Well, while we're in the realm of discussing tail risks - what is the risk that if your assets exceed FDIC insurance limits, the bank you have them in defaults?

Since we're discussing a negative rate environment, presumably this is a stressful time for the economy making this more likely than history would indicate. If you have your assets at multiple institutions to stay under the limits, what's the probability of one of those failing, and what's the probability the FDIC fails?

Depending on how negative rates are, the math can quickly turn those probabilities you outlined above into risks I'm willing to take.

And please tell me... how often is the cash and carry spread there enough to cover the typical margin fees charged to retail investors?

"So, since you don't want to store that money under your mattress"...

I never understood/agreed with this argument. I'd much rather withdraw all my money and keep it in a safe than lock in a loss. I suppose for most people though the minor loss of principal outweighs that inconvenience, but for me, as a matter of principle, I refuse to be paid less than my principal (I didn't mean for that to come out as cheesy as it did).

Wow I had no idea this existed! I checked for competitors a few years back and there was nothing at the time, so this looks relatively new - and also quite promising. I'm glad I clicked on this HN link, thanks for the pointer.

I fear they may follow the same course as Zeo at those prices though. For typical consumers I would imagine only the most fervent "quantified self" types are going to be comfortable spending $500 for sleep tracking.

I'm interested though :)

They are all garbage, without monitoring brainwaves you have essentially zero useful information about sleep quality/duration/stages. No amount of accelerometer/heart rate data is going to accurately reflect your sleep stages, regardless of what marketing spiel you read.

For a brief time there was a consumer product "Zeo sleep monitor" which was a legitimate EEG-style brainwave headband you would wear to sleep. From what I recall, comparing it's results to those of in-lab sleep studies, it was fairly accurate.

Sadly they went out of business as it was a fairly niche product and pretty expensive.

Even so - to me this is kind of a big deal. Go is fully observable, there might be an intractable number of combinations, but the game is well defined and everything is out in the open.

In Starcraft you don't have full knowledge of the game (fog of war), there are infinitely more game paths , you have to scout, plan for the long term (macro), react tactically in the short-term, micromanage, etc. I'm actually shocked at it's performance.

60 Month CD at 3.0%? Anybody signing up for that should not be allowed to manage money ever again. Look at the yield curve, you are getting (almost) nothing for locking your money up an additional 5 years.