HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

spupe

903 karma · joined February 1, 2022

submissionscomments
spupe··on Germany commits €100B to defense spending
Angela Merkel has made two crucial mistakes in foreign policy/defense spending that have now become clear. The first was the assumption we could appease Russia by offering it a carrot, namely gas pipelines and mutual investments. We now see that the economic dependence goes both ways, making Germany vulnerable to what a dictator like Putin decides to do. The second mistake was the belief that investment in its own military was a waste of money. Germany has diverted hundreds of billions to other areas over the decades, because it relied on the assumption that its alliances would protect it - Trump and Brexit have harshly shown that this might not be the case -, or that it no longer had actual enemies left to fight.

In her defense, her options were logical and a lot of the money that would otherwise go to less productive sectors of the economy, such as defense, went into more useful ones like research and development. Russia has also bought a ton of German goods, although arguably it would have regardless. However, compounded with her disastrous energy policy, Merkel made Germany more dependent than ever, a weak regional power at best. She simply did not foresee a future like our present.

spupe··on Germany commits €100B to defense spending
Participation in this war could lead to nuclear annihilation. We have no treaties or commitments to be involved in it, and so we won't. This investment is to make sure Russia doesn't get any wrong ideas about invading any NATO or EU countries.
spupe··on Germany commits €100B to defense spending
Germany has money for all of that, it doesn't have to neglect healthcare to afford a working military.

Merkel has starved the Bundeswehr of resources relying on assumptions that have revealed themselves to be false. Historical alliances can be unreliable (Trump) and historical rivalries can be reignited (Russia). I fully support this move by Scholz.

spupe··on PwC fined over exam cheating involving 1,100 of its auditors
It's absolutely baffling that after so many scandals, sometimes with consequences so severe that the whole global economy was destabilized(subprime crisis), we still have not found a better way to do audits than to use the same corrupt cartel.
spupe··on Ask HN: If Russia gets banned from SWIFT, how it would reflect on crypto?
There is a good article on The Guardian about it: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/feb/24/what-is-s...

Essentially the CIPS as already mentioned would be most likely alternative, which is partially why people are afraid to exercise this option as it could lead to weakening of USD and SWIFT in general. Crypto is considered by the author an option but honestly I fail to see how it could work at scale, since you could refuse to interact with known accounts (https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/02/24/us-to-expand-sanc...)

spupe··on Twitter based map of Russian troop movements
Biden was essentially appointed by party elites, Obama and a few other leaders decided it would be him, the party immediately followed. I don't think that Biden or Hillary Clinton had millions of people clamoring for them to run. Meanwhile, the least terrible president of the past 30 years was Obama, who would never have been appointed in a backroom.

There are many things to reform in the US democracy, but it is obvious that it is highly oligarchic already.

spupe··on Where in EU would you relocate?
I can tell you that having a small kid in Germany is a pain, as kindergartens can be hard to get into. Also, the country is stuck in the 80s when it comes to bureaucracy and digitalization. Depending on where you live, you may find it difficult to have friends and adapt - the West/North being much more accepting than the South/East. This is not to say that Germany is a bad option, but it is a weird country that takes some effort to live in as a foreigner.

I haven't lived in the UK or Switzerland, but if you have an option to be anywhere in Europe, you might want to consider Denmark. Copenhagen is very beautiful and a delight to live in, and public services are all top notch. Other options I would personally consider are Netherlands, Belgium and Portugal, but I haven't lived there as well.

spupe··on Misidentifying talent
Pure stats work in circumstances that are repeatable, easily quantifiable and where you have a huge dataset to learn from past experience. That's why baseball is such a perfect example. It's just not so easy to measure how good someone is at solving novel problems, compared to how well they can hit or throw a ball in perfectly repeatable circumstances.
spupe··on NYC bill would ban grocery apps from advertising 15 minute delivery times
I agree that we should regulate these services for the externalities they cause (high activity in residential areas, accidents, etc.). But to put an arbitrary cap on what you can advertise just sounds really stupid.
spupe··on Bored Ape Owner Files $1M Lawsuit Against OpenSea over 'Stolen' NFT
Looks like someone needs the government's help to sort out their private, "decentralized" mess.
spupe··on I was wrong, we need crypto
They can seize the gold only if they know where it is. And to convert crypto back into Canadian dollars, you will need to go through the "legacy" banking system at any substantial amount, where it can be flagged with standard tools and you would be arrested.
spupe··on I was wrong, we need crypto
This is nonsense. Canada is starting to classify cryptos as assets [1], and they already are looking into some accounts related to the protests [2]. It's true that you could hide it well, but you could also do so by having gold bars in a bank vault.

[1] https://fcpablog.com/2021/06/21/canadian-courts-assist-crypt... [2] https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/02/16/canada-sanctions-...

spupe··on On Experiencing Joe Rogan
Very good article, I agree with most of the author's viewpoints. I find the urge to censor someone like him much more dangerous than his own dumb show, and worryingly some very influential people disagree with that.
spupe··on Intel to Acquire Tower Semiconductor for $5.4B
Intel has a clear strategy of becoming a big player in the semiconductor industry in the next decade. I honestly think it will work. Many people have observed that it is a cash-intensive industry with tiny margins, but once these huge investments have been made and there are only two or three companies that can dominate the market for five to ten years, you can extract huge value before any competitor catches up.
spupe··on I asked GPT-NeoX-20B a hundred arithmetic questions
I went and checked, it turns out for this version Eleuther-AI has in fact included math problems [1]. So my earlier comment is partly incorrect.

[1] http://eaidata.bmk.sh/data/GPT_NeoX_20B.pdf

spupe··on I asked GPT-NeoX-20B a hundred arithmetic questions
Thank you for this. Technically it's not GPT-3, but GPT-NeoX-20B, although they are based on a similar architecture.

The poor performance is most likely due to not having a large database of math problems to draw from. Github, for example, is part of the dataset that is used to train both GPT-3 and GPT-Neo variants, which is partly why they can generate meaningful code (sometimes). I wonder how a model finetuned for math would perform.

spupe··on Show HN: AI assistant for inclusive communications on Slack
What is the cost for being flagged getting fed up with a company policing casual speech, or being flagged as uncivil incorrectly?
spupe··on Heart-disease risk soars after Covid, even with a mild case
These numbers are exceptionally high on aggregate. From the article: "out of every 1,000 people studied, there were around 4 more people in the COVID-19 group than in the control group who experienced stroke."

This means that for every million people who got COVID-19, we would expect 4,000 more strokes. Using a lower-bound estimate that 50% of the population will get COVID-19 at some point, this would mean roughly 650,000 more cases in the US alone (~330 million people), and this is in addition to baseline. A totally devastating pandemic.

spupe··on If Everything Is ‘Trauma,’ Is Anything?
Every generation changes the meanings of words and thus degrades it to the eyes of the older ones (ie "literally", etc.). I think with the internet this process accelerated, and now some important words such as "trauma" are used for wildly different experiences, as the article states.

The more interesting point, which is also in the article, is whether we are sort of glorifying emotional responses nowadays. It certainly feels that we are promoting victimhood as a quality, and that the zeitgeist now favors those who scream louder rather than those who internalize their feelings.

spupe··on First Principles Thinking
> Every first principle is a foundational proposition that stands alone (like an atom) and is pure. We cannot deduce it from any other proposition or assumption.

> When first principles form the foundations, the solution is sturdy. Elon Musk built both SpaceX (rockets) and Tesla (batteries) based on first principles. BuzzFeed's vitality is built on first principles.

I didn't like the article, and these passages illustrate why.

spupe··on How was the decision made to ignore immunity from prior infection?
Sorry, but this is just a bunch of bunk. Some of the claims here are verifiably wrong. Take a look at this linked Substack post from that thread [1], which claims "The real world data has shown that the death rate among the vaccinated, if infected with COVID, can be 3 to 5.7 times higher1 than the death rate of the unvaccinated" and provides a source [2] that directly contradicts it (ie Table 5). Many other claims are usual alarmist stuff such as making a huge deal out of side effects.

It is intriguing that a lot of high-level decisions were not made based on solid evidence, but this twitter thread also doesn't provide that.

[1] https://drrollergator.substack.com/p/damned-lies-and-vaccine... [2] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

spupe··on Spinal implants allow paralysed people to walk, swim and cycle again
This builds upon some solid research in rodents and humans, which had showed very promising results. It is very likely to become a therapeutic option within the next 10 years, in my opinion.
spupe··on Angela Merkel's legacy: has she saved or destroyed Europe? (2018)
It is hyperbolic to try to place her in either end of the spectrum. Of course she did not destroy Europe, neither did she save it. My own personal criticism of her is that she mostly followed, rather than lead. She had no greater vision for Germany and Europe other than waiting for a consensus to emerge, then executing it. That's what I think most Germans appreciate in their leadership, as her popularity showed. Yet her strongest moments came when she dared to go against the majority, like in the migration crisis.
spupe··on Tell HN: Stack Exchange (Stack Overflow) is now blocking Tor
That's pretty crazy. I think Google is currently losing vs these SEO exploiters, at least for some domains such as programming. The fact things switched within a week suggests they are trying to finetune their algorithm to make it less exploitable again.
spupe··on We’re Fine Without Facebook, German and French Ministers Say
And what percentage of those have abandoned or switched off from Facebook upon learning about their practices?

I doubt a majority of Facebook users would agree with it being prevented from operating in European Union due to their servers being in the US. This is a precedent that can and will lead to undue internet restrictions in the future. So while I share your concern that we should do more regarding data protection, I'm not sure this is the way to go.

spupe··on We’re Fine Without Facebook, German and French Ministers Say
> Many non-tech people already have a telegram account for example but don't move out of whatsapp because they are all on it already. Nobody wants to be that guys asking anyone else to abandon the group and move to somewhere else just for the heck of moving. As for instagram, they would quickly switch to tiktok, snapchat or something else that fills the gap.

Telegram's servers are in Russia, and Tiktok's are in China. If shutting down Facebook in the European Union means people are going to switch to those other apps, that would defeat the purpose of this initiative. I would also disagree that they are equivalent, I cannot imagine my mom migrating to any other social media if Facebook ceases to be available. She would likely go and protest this measure actually.

I agree this is likely a bluff, I just disagree that we should not seriously consider the actual costs of blocking over 400 million people from doing what they want to do. Also note that ultimately this could be viewed as a protectionist measure, so Europe-based social media companies would have a big advantage. I'm not sure I'm ok with that either.

spupe··on We’re Fine Without Facebook, German and French Ministers Say
> I can't see a significant cohort that would be unhappy that their governments stood the ground on their data not being sent to the US.

There are >400 million monthly active Facebook users in Europe today [1]. It is pretty absurd to think that a substantial amount of them would prefer losing access to Facebook over an EU mandate, especially considering most people are likely aware at this point that Facebook is using their data.

I don't think this issue is as clear cut as you and many other posters here see it. I find that the EU's decision can overwhelm legitimate services that may not be able to comply with this regulation, and I also see it as part of their intention to build a China-like firewall eventually - they are already trying to shutdown Telegram, for example.

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/745400/facebook-europe-m...

spupe··on Wall Street was the real winner of the GameStop saga
This review was rather short and uninformative. There is a slightly longer one here: https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/books/story/2022-...
spupe··on Show HN: Download Twitter data without API keys
What is the advantage of your implementation versus Twint, which is free?
spupe··on What’s so hard about understanding consciousness?
> The experience or feeling of having consciousness is real, that's true. But the fact that humans experience consciousness doesn't make it a real physical phenomenon.

Unless you believe in supranatural explanations for it, yes, it does. The beliefs you mention, like a flat Earth, were/are real and also false. So in this analogy, consciousness is real, but many of the explanations for it or powers ascribed to it are false.

← PreviousPage 8 of 9Next →