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stevenj

3,884 karma · joined July 22, 2009

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stevenj··on Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]
Yes, it was really fun.

On a related note, I came across a website several years ago that has a lot of info from the annual meeting Q&As, as well as other interviews, etc. It's quite long, but I found it very enjoyable to read.

http://buffettfaq.com

stevenj··on Snap commits $2B over 5 years for Google Cloud infrastructure
Yes.

If anyone wants to bet against them existing, I'll take the bet.

stevenj··on Inside Rolex's Manufacturing Facilities (2015)
I'm interested in buying a luxury watch.

For all the Rolex fans here: why Rolex over say Breitling or Waldan (I like the look of the Waldans the best)?

stevenj··on Why I don't believe in Uber's Success
According to Crunchbase, DotBlu has closed.

https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/dotblu#/entity

stevenj··on Why I don't believe in Uber's Success
What would you bet against? Its current and/or probable IPO valuation? That it'll be around in 10 years?

Because I'd be willing to make a bet (say 1k) for Uber, depending on the terms.

I'd also make a bet for Lyft, depending on the terms.

stevenj··on Ask HN: If you were to switch career, what would you do?
Are you an art curator or dealer?
stevenj··on Once mocked, Facebook’s $1B acquisition of Instagram was a good move
Thanks, I had no idea this existed.
stevenj··on China Turns to $503B Rail Expansion to Boost Growth
Do you have sources for the above? I'd like to read about all of this.
stevenj··on Once mocked, Facebook’s $1B acquisition of Instagram was a good move
What's the Facebook events app?
stevenj··on Warren Buffett on the David Rubenstein Show
As someone who has followed Warren Buffett very closely for over ten years (as well as being a shareholder in Berkshire), this interview had some new tidbits of information about him and Berkshire that I hadn't heard before, which is honestly pretty rare these days.

Edit: I posted the wrong URL. Here's the right one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8ANHNU0Fng

stevenj··on Opendoor, a startup worth emulating
>Also if I remember correctly, Keith Rabois said he was talking with Peter Thiel and Peter mentioned how real estate has rarely changed.

Do you have a source for this conversation? I'd like to read more about Peter's thoughts if they're available.

stevenj··on Cash Squeeze at Tesla, SolarCity
Is there an article that discusses Tesla needing to be firewalled off from Solar City for financing reasons?

I hadn't heard that before, but am interested in learning more about it.

stevenj··on Expedia Buys Orbitz for $1.6B in Cash
In all cash deals like this, is there just a bank wire transfer that's made in the purchase amount from one company's account to the other's once everything has been approved and the deal has closed?
stevenj··on Steve Ballmer steps down as board member at Microsoft
*Basketball to watch
stevenj··on The Valuation Trap
TIL Facebook had a down round:

http://avc.com/2014/05/the-valuation-trap/#comment-136902035...

stevenj··on CandySwipe Open Letter to King regarding trademark
Somewhat related and something I've thought about over the years:

"Here's a model that we've had trouble with. Maybe you'll be able to figure it out better. Many markets get down to two or three big competitors—or five or six. And in some of those markets, nobody makes any money to speak of. But in others, everybody does very well.

Over the years, we've tried to figure out why the competition in some markets gets sort of rational from the investor's point of view so that the shareholders do well, and in other markets, there's destructive competition that destroys shareholder wealth.

If it's a pure commodity like airline seats, you can understand why no one makes any money. As we sit here, just think of what airlines have given to the world—safe travel, greater experience, time with your loved ones, you name it. Yet, the net amount of money that's been made by the shareholders of airlines since Kitty Hawk, is now a negative figure—a substantial negative figure. Competition was so intense that, once it was unleashed by deregulation, it ravaged shareholder wealth in the airline business.

Yet, in other fields—like cereals, for example—almost all the big boys make out. If you're some kind of a medium grade cereal maker, you might make 15% on your capital. And if you're really good, you might make 40%. But why are cereals so profitable—despite the fact that it looks to me like they're competing like crazy with promotions, coupons and everything else? I don't fully understand it.

Obviously, there's a brand identity factor in cereals that doesn't exist in airlines. That must be the main factor that accounts for it.

And maybe the cereal makers by and large have learned to be less crazy about fighting for market share—because if you get even one person who's hell-bent on gaining market share.... For example, if I were Kellogg and I decided that I had to have 60% of the market, I think I could take most of the profit out of cereals. I'd ruin Kellogg in the process. But I think I could do it.

In some businesses, the participants behave like a demented Kellogg. In other businesses, they don't. Unfortunately, I do not have a perfect model for predicting how that's going to happen.

For example, if you look around at bottler markets, you'll find many markets where bottlers of Pepsi and Coke both make a lot of money and many others where they destroy most of the profitability of the two franchises. That must get down to the peculiarities of individual adjustment to market capitalism. I think you'd have to know the people involved to fully understand what was happening."

-Charlie Munger http://ycombinator.com/munger.html

stevenj··on Dogecoin market manipulation?
Two definitions of investing by notable people:

1. From The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham: "An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."

http://www.amazon.com/Intelligent-Investor-Definitive-Invest...

2. From Mr. Buffett on the Stock Market: "The definition is simple but often forgotten: investing is laying out money now to get more money back in the future -- more money in real terms, after taking inflation into account."

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1999/...

stevenj··on Memo to Stripe: Winning the hearts of Valley startups is not winning payments
This article is awful.

One of its inaccuracies:

>Young founders in their early 20s take on the online payments sector with nothing more than a YC pedigree to their name.

Patrick actually co-founded Auctomatic in the beginning of 2007. It sold about a year later for $5 million.

http://www.crunchbase.com/company/auctomatic

http://techcrunch.com/2008/03/26/communicate-acquires-y-comb...

stevenj··on Payments Startup Stripe (YC S10) Joins the Billion Dollar Club
Congrats to the Collison brothers and the entire Stripe team!

Patrick and John are two of the most remarkable people I've ever met.

stevenj··on Payments Startup Stripe (YC S10) Joins the Billion Dollar Club
Is he joining the Board of Directors (via Khosla Ventures' investment this round)? Or in some other capacity?
stevenj··on Ask HN: Let's predict. What's your prediction for 2014?
Snapchat is acquired for $4+ billion.
stevenj··on Foursquare Raises $35M More, Says It Has 45M Registered Users
Surprised to see that it has now raised a total of $106 million.

http://www.crunchbase.com/company/foursquare

stevenj··on Bill Gates takes part in Reddit's Secret Santa
I'd give him a few of my favorite books, with the hope that there'd be at least one that he hadn't read yet.

I'd also include a personal write-up as to why I enjoyed each, without giving away any important details.

stevenj··on The end of the Facebook era
Friendly wager offer: I'll bet anyone $100 that Facebook is still the largest social network based on monthly active users in 5 years. (Facebook itself, not any companies it acquires.)

We can either use public company stats, or a couple of respected publications' reported usage stats, or a combination of both to decide the winner.

stevenj··on Google Acquires Boston Dynamics
Google bought YouTube for $1.65 billion in 2006.

http://googlepress.blogspot.com/2006/10/google-to-acquire-yo...

stevenj··on Silicon Valley 40 under 40: Garry Tan
It'd be cool to have a Q&A with the YC team on HN!
stevenj··on Ask HN: Which daily habit has affected your productivity the most?
Exercise regularly.
stevenj··on Show HN: I made an HN for the financial industry
As someone who's tried starting a new HN for business news (forlue.com, now defunct) after New Mogul left us I found the most difficult thing was getting a niche community to consistently submit stories.

If you know of a small group of people (ideally in the financial/money industry) who'd be interested in this, get them to use it amongst each other to trade stories during the day.

I still believe there's a market for this. It just needs to start in the hands of small group of people who'll constantly use it throughout the day to communicate with each other about business-related stories.

If you get people to consistently submit good stories, readers will follow, and then some time after, albeit slowly, commenters.

stevenj··on Coin
According to the article linked below, Coin is a YC company.

http://allthingsd.com/20131114/finally-a-new-way-to-pay-in-s...

stevenj··on Fucking Sue Me (2011)
https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=pud
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